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  1. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am interested in buying a Model 3 SR and can say that the price in Switzerland was just lowered by 2000 CHF. The price of the Model Y RWD was not changed. I am not able to say what happened with the other configurations/Models in Switzerlands and in other European markets. There was no price...
  2. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Could this mean that this motor is now in routine production: (Print-Screens from Investor Day March 1st, 2023.
  3. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thank you, Gigapress. Your post make me to think and speculate a bit and I came to the conclusion that Robotaxi could be truly revolutionary. I think it could transform the world like the iPhone did, with the major difference that there is no Competitior/Android in sight. Many in this forum...
  4. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I just buyed some shares and will probably buy more if the shareprice dips again. I sold some shares after the Q4 2023 Earnings Call and now I buyed half of these shares back with a slight discount.
  5. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The situation now feels like: Tesla did exaclty know what they wanted to do for a year, but couldn‘t, due to lacking training capacity. Now the training capacity is online and all the queued tasks get done.
  6. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    „Mr.Tesla“ on X has 12.3.2 and says it is another hughe improvement. Further Auto Wipers are fixed now and the Auto Park functionality was added. 12.3.2 could go wide since it was merged on the 2024 branch according to Chuck Cook. The rate of improvement was very high lately and will probably...
  7. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The front bumper camera was supposedly removed just hours prior to the release of the refreshed model 3 on september 1st. The additional camera was discernible on pictures on Teslas webpage but is now removed on these pictures. I didn‘t see the bumper camera mentioned during the youtube review...
  8. Optimeer

    Project Highland (Investor impact etc.)

    50 % of the car parts have changed and this means there are a lot of changes to the facility. It is a lot easier to upgrade first Shanghai and then Fremont than both facilities at the same time. This way they only need to make the mistakes in one facility and can iterate for the 2nd facility...
  9. Optimeer

    HW4 & HW5 Discussion

    I was also impressed by Elon‘s demonstration of the alpha-Version of FSD V12. However, in hindsight, the sucess is no surprise considering Rich Sutton‘s famous blogpost. General approaches just relying on increasing AI computing power (like FSD V12) have proven to be more successful than...
  10. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla's Fremont factory has reportedly paused production according to Sawyer Merritt: This could be linked to the Highland Upgrade we were waiting for. For me, the shutdown of the whole plant instead of for example just a line indicates that many changes will be implemented. I think such a...
  11. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What did I wrote two months ago after watching Munro’s video of the Hummer EV battery? Now blame the supplier which sets up the automation for the battery pack assembly? 😂
  12. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What I asked myself was how high is the scrap rate when the scrap bill is reduced by 40 % and the COGS decreased by 25 %. I came to the conclusion that the yield rate was approx. 30 % in Q1 and was 38 % in Q2. If my calculation was wrong, please explain how this mathematical problem is...
  13. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Here an update from my analysis from May 20, 2023 after yesterday’s earnings. 4680 Gen II is still not ready but at least Tesla found other ways to increase the energy density by 10 % vs Gen I (Goal for Gen II was approx. 20 %). I was disapointed by Elon sometimes not answering the questions...
  14. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I revisited my predictions for the Megapack business I made after Q1 2023 earnings and saw that there were no surprises yesterday. I think eventually this will be a great business.
  15. Optimeer

    xAI / Grök general discussion

    Comparison von NVIDIA’s and Teslas AI Hardare It seems to me that we have reached now the steep part on the S-curve in the evolution of AI and AI Hardware. To get a better understanding, I compared NVIDIA’s with Teslas portfolio in this area. Beeing not an AI Expert at all, the products look...
  16. Optimeer

    xAI / Grök general discussion

    Elon said yesterday during the twitter space that there will be an electricity shortage in two years and he implied this will be in part because of the scaling of AI computing. I am not able to believe this after doing a few calculations. However, I take this as an indication that Tesla and...
  17. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Chris Zheng posted on Twitter the rumor that FSD Beta will be expanded to China (without mentioning a timeline): Tesla China is about to push an occupancy network-based parking assist update for the new Model S/X, and after that, FSD Beta, finally!
  18. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My understanding is that the Top 5 are a moving target. NVIDA’s H100 will enable building even more advanced supercomputers by other players. Today Teslas Supercomputer system is not on the list as its specifications are not public.
  19. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I checked the Swiss configurator for the model 3 and we get a very similar offer (offer not available for the model Y).
  20. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    🤩 Could you share the source where you got Dojo‘s performance from?
  21. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The message is confusing, we should wait a bit until more information is available. 3C at a pack capacity of approx. 60 kWh would mean a max. charge rate of 180 kWh for the Standard Range battery pack (as mentioned in a response to this tweet).
  22. Optimeer

    Tesla heat pump / HVAC (non auto)

    I do have a 45 year old house with a electrical resistive heating system with 18 kW in the basement. The heat is transfered by a loop system to radiators in the house. I was a few times in the US and I can understand that it sounds very strange for you to live without AC. Where I live there were...
  23. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    tl;dr: Tesla‘s heat pump is a marvel imho. This video was already shared a few days ago (#414’629), but I found only today time to watch it. I looked into installing a heat pump system last year for my house and ended with an offer for CHF 60‘000 = 60’000 USD including installation. Clearly the...
  24. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Statstesla on Twitter is estimating the Berlin production according to the VIN Numbers which show up in Norway. Today new higher VIN‘s were observed which indicate a production rate of almost 5000 / week. The old estimation rate with this method was 3700 / week. There is a lag of probably a few...
  25. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I concur. As a mechanical engineer, until 2008, for a few years, I designed among other things an integrated robotic station for a tooling machine. It is just so much work to do this in the 3d CAD system, since you have to ensure that you can reach all points you need etc. The robot has to be...
  26. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thank you for the clarification. Sadly, it is now too late to edit my post. I did know that there will be 4 Lines but apparently I got the capacity per line wrong. On page 35 of the battery day presentation a capacity of 20 GWh per ine is stated. Could be that this Number was a bit sandbagged.
  27. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thank you for your analysis. The battery pack housing is made of steel with thousands of weldings, which is a design suitable for low number of quantities. Also the design didn’t show obvious signs to be optimized for automated production. There are literally two 400 V batteries in the Hummer...
  28. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I agree. This is true for 4680 Gen I currently produced at Kato Road in a dry/wet process (capacity target 10 GWh/a). The current Model Y AWD uses these Gen I batteries. The Gen II 4680 factories in Austin and later in Nevada will be Gen II in a dry/dry process and the targeted capacity in...
  29. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    These are fantastic news for so many reasons: These batteries are low cost Batteries are Nickel and Cobalt free, so probably easier to scale from a raw materials perspective. We can assume that BYD as a supplier is able to scale their production in China. By the way, I would not expect quality...
  30. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, it uses ChatGPT and it takes a few seconds to analyze an almost two hours long video! It is free for a few videos per day and costs 10 $ for up to 200 videos / month. AI creates unexpected opportunities.. We now need to think about to which extend we want to use these. Like, would we wish...
  31. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I was not able to find a transcript of the Annual Shareholders Meeting, therefore I generated this one with summarize.tech.
  32. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think we have limited insight in how LG Energy is doing regarding the 4680 Batteries. In the article you quoted it is also stated that Tesla is sourcing 4680 batteries from Panasonic, which is not true (for now). LG Energy's plan, announced on June 13, 2022, was to build a plant for 580 mio...
  33. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Please excuse me for disagreeing. But I have to since it can be counterproductive to come up with rumors which potentially induce an osbourne effect. And in this case I would say it is unlikely this rumor turns out to be true. The important differerence to the old, discontiued Model 3 LR are...
  34. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I recently found the great website Degradation which allows to estimate the degradation of different Tesla Model configurations. The degradation of the Model 3’s with LFP pack seems to be quite in line with other configurations. We should move further discussions on battery degradation to the...
  35. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This transparency probably happened for a reason. The IRA tax credit was halved on April 18th and will completely disappear in my opinion by beginning of 2024 for the Mach E‘s with Chinese LFP Batteries. I think the message is that additional support is needed to further being able to push the...
  36. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    While this is possible, I think the data points for April 2023 were not available for the countries without a column in April 2023 (Germany, UK, Belgium Spain, Switzerland). The Swiss numbers are actually out now and are also a record for the first month: 475 out of total 18’149 cars registered...
  37. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I can confirm that in Switzerland and Austria, a some models have this rebate (In Switzerland some MY LR white and black, in Austria some MY LR quicksilver, white and black). I have not checked other markets. For the first time at least for a while many Model S and X are available in inventory...
  38. Optimeer

    Off topic galore

    Here a screenshot I saved
  39. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    According to the Battery Day presentation, the tabless design enables to increase the diameter of the cell from 21 mm to 48 mm without impacting supercharging times. This enables cost savings for the cells of approximately 18 % compared to 2170 cells and a range increase of approximately 7 % (if...
  40. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Beginning of April, there was a guy sitting a few days in in his car in front of the Lathrop factory and he said that they produce 10-11 Megapacks per day, on 7 days per Weeks (TMC Post 7552116). 13 weeks/quarter x 7 days/week x 10.5 Megapacks/day x 3.9 MWh/Megapack = 3.7 GWh/quarter. In Q1...
  41. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    According to Tesla Carriers, so far no Ro-Ro ship with Teslas has sailed from Shanghai to Canada and shipping to Vancouver would take about 15 days. Since the configurator says delivery of the CAN Model Y will be in May - July, we will know in 3 weeks.
  42. Optimeer

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    CATL has just announced a new battery with an energy density of 500 Wh/kg suitable for passenger aircrafts (cand cars) What do you guys think about this battery? One picture in the tweet shows the A380 aircraft which imho is a bad choice imho.
  43. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The next change to the credit systems happens beginning of January 2024, when Chinese batteries are no more eligible for the tax credit (but critical minerals are allowed until the beginning of 2025). I think this basically means, that the models which now receive $ 3’750 tax credit will be no...
  44. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Stretch2727, thank you very much for this link. I conducted an analysis and came to the conclusion, that in Q2 about 75 % of all tax credits will be spoken for cars from Tesla. For this calculation, I assumed that the eligible models from Tesla will show the same growth as the eligible models...
  45. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    🤯 We will find out about this new weekly record production rate very soon, at the earnings call the latest. To manage expectations, it is still possible that this is a stress test week to detect the current bottlenecks etc., so a bit lower production rates for next weeks are possible. The...
  46. Optimeer

    Tesla Cargo Ship

    I was encouraged by a disucssion about ships in the investor thread thinking about electric cargo ships. I didn‘t read the other post in this forum yet. A few weeks ago, I was at air fair and saw an electric ship motor. Of course this is nice, but probably not the best imeaginable solution...
  47. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don‘t have the know how to asses how difficult it is to build fossil fuel cars which comply with the new 6b standard. At least, NOx emissions for example can be very effectively reduced by implementing an Adblue System. Then there are many improvements which could be implemented to increase...
  48. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Another method to estimate the deliveries in certain markets is comparing the number of ships with the spreadshet which is linked on the TeslaCarriers Website. Below my summary: I didn‘t find any ships from Europe to Taiwan, possibly these ships are missing in the list. The number of cars...
  49. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    To achieve a good appearance without paint on a car is a super hard task. Many were sceptical if this will be feasible for the Cybertruck but so far they seem to be still on track. The task is even more difficult when the shape is more complex. For the Model 3 Highland the solution could be the...
  50. Optimeer

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    … and one purpose of CT is to make us familiar with the stainless steel appearance and frame this look as innovative and high-end. The new paint option Quicksilver, which is introduced these days at Giga Berlin, has a similar purpose. I expext that this option will be available in a few months...