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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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As a small time Tesla investor, I've decided to gain some first hand knowledge of FSD. Just ordered via subscription to try out for a month. 700 mile trip planned in two weeks. Hopefully can get FSDb.

Happy 4th of July!

FSD is impressing us in Sedona. Roundabouts are a breeze. But that’s nothing now.

We encountered a serious construction zone with temporary traffic lights, single lane, dirt road, and yet FSD made it through all unassisted. Blown away! (Edit: ~1 mi long, one lane only, on the wrong side of the road!)

There was one spot it stopped for almost 10 sec as if pondering. Very tricky terrain, signs all over, then proceeded on its own. AT NIGHT!

I actually considered disengaging FSD after CLEARING IT ALL, just so I could congratulate the Tesla FSD Team in the comments.

Photo is of the beginning of the construction. Most impressive challenge yet!

It’s not without a few quirks here and there, so do pay attention to be ready and safe.
 

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We absolutely love our 2022 M3LR. But within a year or so we’ll hit 50,000 miles and be naked warranty-wise. I tend to keep vehicles a long, long time, but rapidly advancing technology may be changing that philosophy.

Depending on what Highland has to offer, we’ll probably look at the price delta to step up to a newer model. Unless our CyberTruck position becomes available, which will change our financial landscape a bit!
This does not make sense to me. You will have a 2 year old car with 70k miles remaining on the battery and drive units. You could take the difference between a new car and the used price and put it in a fund for any repairs. Have you had any warranty repairs on your M3LR anyway? If you just can’t sleep without full warranty coverage, there’s probably a (legit?) extended warranty company. But I think you would do much better self funding a warranty rather than buying new.
 
This does not make sense to me. You will have a 2 year old car with 70k miles remaining on the battery and drive units. You could take the difference between a new car and the used price and put it in a fund for any repairs. Have you had any warranty repairs on your M3LR anyway? If you just can’t sleep without full warranty coverage, there’s probably a (legit?) extended warranty company. But I think you would do much better self funding a warranty rather than buying new.

Tesla offers a 2 year, 25,000 mile extended warranty for $2,000 that you can add right in the app if you so desire. There are terms beyond the initial warranty so be sure to check those so you aren’t surprised by any changes.
 
But production was not. Troy was off by less than 2% on production. This was an inventory drawdown.


Shocker, right? I mean, after all the dissonance about how there’s clearly a demand problem because inventory high-

I put forth to our self-proclaimed I’m-here-to-stir-the-pot resident poster; Tesla wasn’t being less transparent about inventory numbers, inventory was just being cleared out quickly.
Drawdown? Inventory grew, just not very fast.
(Or are we talking a specific region? )
 
Jan 31 2023:
'VW will not take part in a price war with Tesla, Blume told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. "We have a clear pricing strategy and are focusing on reliability. We trust in the strength of our products and brands," he said.'


July 04 2023:
 
Respectfully disagree. I know we talked about this a few times before, but I don't feel we are entitled to receive this (granular) information.

...
Reasonable people regularly debate how granular data should be for public companies. As for monthly sales data or monthly production data or even detail of models, there can be and are debates among accounting professionals and nearly everyone involved. So, I can easily make good, sound arguments for a variety of different disclosure and reporting standards, and ahem done so.

TSLA is a nearly unique beast, but many of us try to imagine disclosures should fit our curiosity rather than just what we need to know to make prudent or even speculative investment/trading decisions. Even a cursory look at the @Papafox daily charts suggests there is plentiful information about trading, while others, historically by CPAs such as @The Accountant , show there is quite clear disclosure regarding most financial subjects, with very careful reading of footnotes and an understanding of the relevant FASB and other accounting conventions is a condition precedent to clear understanding.

So, other than obsessive curiosity probably shared by most of us in this thread, including me, of what use is monthly exact model sales or production data. In my opinion I'd love having all that, by country and postal code too. Years ago much of that was readily available for most of the US and for a few other countries. There re a handful of industry analytic reports available that approximate those data worldwide. (Afghanistan or Chad sales by model, that is regularly reported, available for only US$ 5,000 per year or so). I used those sources for years, but for OEM planning not for investment decisions.

In my experience 'some data is good, more data is better, only too much is enough'.

We know that TSLA financial policies and disclosures demonstrate industry-unprecedented financial strength;
We know that nearly every analyst, including many of ours, overstate and misunderstand TSLA sales accounting in comparison with ANY other OEM;
We know that TSLA has high free cash flow coupled with a high growth rate. That does not happen! But TSLA does it!

Given those three things we might obsess over daily reports and can gleefully examine the EU daily sales for those countries that report such.
Then we can have a look at such threads as @Mr Miserable 's "2023 Shipping Movements" that help to understand that nearly all OEMs report as sales, when a vehicle is shipped, NOT when it actually si sold to an end user.

After thinking about those things it's hard not to conclude that having more precise data actually will not be likely to change an investment decision. So we do not need to know that data.

But...I'd dearly love to have that plus takeup of FSD, Premium Connectivity, Tesla chargers and much more data about Supercharger deployment, equipment costs and so on. I'd like better cost accounting data than comes from Munro etc even from their high priced complete breakdowns. All of that would have value for an OEM, but not for investment decisions.

I'd love to know exactly the impact of the IRA on TSLA earnings, plus how the expected impact will be of GM, Ford etc adopting NACS. All of those things would be fun to know and would help us have nicer debates; those and many more. BUT...they will not really help investors make better decisions.

Obviously there are some who will disagree. So be it. In the meantime I can distinguish between information I need to make any given decision and that that I want to know but do not need.
 
Jan 31 2023:
'VW will not take part in a price war with Tesla, Blume told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. "We have a clear pricing strategy and are focusing on reliability. We trust in the strength of our products and brands," he said.'


July 04 2023:
Isn’t that what BYD said very publicly about a month before they lowered prices?

Probably nothing.
 
Below are a couple of charts to help illuminate Tesla's 'inventory/transit' position as of end Q2.

Separately from this industry standard 'days of inventory' articulation of vehicles in inventory/transit, the raw numbers that I am estimating based on historic production/delivery reports are:
3/Y: 90,188 at end of Q2, up from 76,892 at end of Q1
S/X: 14,991 at end of Q2, up from 14,727 at end of Q1

3Y.png


SX.png


I don't read too much into these as I'm sure many factors such as distribution channels to new markets and localized vehicle factories affect these values. However, I think it is useful to have a factual sense of the current inventory picture in raw and relative terms, as there is always so much spin/FUD to try to spin them to paint a certain narrative.
 
Jan 31 2023:
'VW will not take part in a price war with Tesla, Blume told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. "We have a clear pricing strategy and are focusing on reliability. We trust in the strength of our products and brands," he said.'


July 04 2023:

Yeah, I don't think that's customer reluctance, that's management impedance. ;)

Cheers to the EEs
 
Welcome onboard TSLA; this is your super bull facilitator speaking. We are now cruising at almost 2 million vehicles per annum. If you look down behind us you will see the wreck of other automotive companies getting battered by our delivery waves. Adjust your charts to golden cross before we land in production utopia in approximately 6 months from now assuming we keep this FUD headwind. It was great having you aboard and make sure you purchase our burnt hair perfume when you next see GJ coming through the unboxed production line.
 
He has Shanghai at 233,591- but we now know actual production there was 247,217.

Exported doesn't mean sold. Exported means the cars left China on a ship. 247,217 includes cars exported in June. Sold means the cars were delivered to a buyer. I'm calculating what was delivered. CPCA's 247,217 includes cars exported but not delivered.
 
Another silent reason to be bullish - Hertz etc. profitability:
Hertz etc. may go crazy buying up Highlands.
As probably one of the few people with 250k miles in a Model 3, I think this will be a significant driver of adoption because when it doesn't matter who you voted for in the last election, it doesn't matter what business you're in, it doesn't even matter if you think human driven climate change is an Al Gore-hatched fantasy, when the MATH is simple and for-profit companies start making billion dollar decisions off of it only the most foolish will argue against it.

People ooh and ahh at my Tesla (especially now that I have a Performance :cool:) but I explain I can't afford to drive as much as I do and afford a gas car, even more so in CA. Rental companies may lead the charge but I doubt other businesses, civil governments, etc. that purchase large numbers of vehicles will be far behind. A company that can produce an affordable, durable, profitable EV in large numbers will be well positioned for the next decade as this snowball gets bigger and bigger and rolls ever faster.