Personally, I'd replace it right now.
If the battery degrades naturally over time (as it's supposed to), then yes, you'll get the warning in plenty of time to replace it.
The problem is that if you check out all of the various Tesla related forums/subreddits, you'll find a discouraging amount of people posting about how their 12v battery failed without any prior warning at all.
IMO (gathered from way too much time spent reading Tesla related content), the OEM battery supplier for the Model 3 has put out at least one bad batch of batteries. Rather than gradually degrading over time as a good lead/acid automotive battery should (and failing in this manner is detectable by the Tesla's software), they just outright fail. No prior warnings, nada... just a completely dead battery.
When I finally get around to replacing mine, I won't be replacing it with the exact make/model that Tesla used from the factory, as I don't want to run the chance of getting yet another bad battery from a manufacturer that, up to this point, hasn't owned up to the fact that they have a large amount of bad from the factory batteries.
FWIW, the battery in the Model 3 is a bit different from standard ICE batteries; the Tesla uses a "Deep Cycle" type battery. Might be worth spending the additional time/research needed to make sure the battery you get is an exact match.