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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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I know. What happened to the 20 week Tuesday win streak that we had earlier this year?
Norse
Active Member
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fslr/real-time Going Down, and theyre taking all the solar Stocks With them AH.
Btw, any guesses on SCTY tmrw?
Jim Cramer July 19: ”If you want a solar, I’ll send you to First Solar. I didn’t like the way it finished the quarter, but I do like it now.”
Btw, any guesses on SCTY tmrw?
Jim Cramer July 19: ”If you want a solar, I’ll send you to First Solar. I didn’t like the way it finished the quarter, but I do like it now.”
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I didn't look closely but it appears FSLR's earnings report was not good (revenue much lower than expected) and they lowered 2013 guidance. This is not a good sign. Mood/sentiment around the solar sector can be very volatile as the sector tends to move together.
I'm expecting SCTY to report very strong earnings, but I think they're somewhat of an unique solar company as their challenge is similar to Tesla (they're not demand-constrained but production-constrained). SCTY has more than enough demand as they've been scaling their operations and financing to meet that demand. Tomorrow (I suggest listening to their conference call) I'm expecting a strong show of them marching toward profitability sooner than expected and more strong evidence of surging demand for their products. But if there's a pull-back in the solar sector due to souring investor mood in the coming weeks, then SCTY's stock price will likely get hit as well.
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Update: I took a closer look (but didn't listen to their conference call) and FSLR's earnings don't seem like a complete miss. Overall they had reasons for their lowered revenue and they had increased gross margins and a decently optimistic outlook. So, I would say it's kind of disappointing but not devastating. But I haven't been following FSLR closely, so I can't really comment with much confidence.
Norse
Active Member
I agree, I have no money in FSLR, but I have in some of the others, mainly SOL and SCTY. As you say, they are unique and they have been scaling up alot. Panels are cheap, and I really think they know what they are doing. However we might have to wait some time for them to surge. Who knows whats priced in ATM.
FSLR is a loser. Just 3 months ago they had an analyst day and they revised their guidance a lot higher, which lead to a 50% one day rally. Now three months later, they are missing targets and revising their guidance lower for the year.
I never did much research on FSLR, because they have outdated technology that used to be a lot cheaper but not anymore. I posted this a few pages back and I still feel like FSLR may potentially go out of business one day.
I never did much research on FSLR, because they have outdated technology that used to be a lot cheaper but not anymore. I posted this a few pages back and I still feel like FSLR may potentially go out of business one day.
Norse
Active Member
I know you did. I have stayed away because of what you said. I know how you feel about SCTY, but do you think they will do good tmrw? I have alot of Stocks there atm.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I am a solar installer and we have never installed fslr. I would be cautious of anything thin film based. When crystalline was expensive, thin film made sense. Now it can't compete because it requires more balance of system and labor to install, therefore the completed project usually is more expensive. As an installer I have had 3 consecutive quarters of price increases on panels. The prices bottomed in q4 2012. Look at Chinas solar energy plan for an idea of where the global industry is headed. I am expecting strong reports from csiq, tsl, yge, and sol.
SolarCity Q2 Earnings Conference Call is tomorrow at 2pm PST (5pm EST).
SolarCity - Events Presentations
This is 30 minutes prior to TSLA's conference call.
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SUNE will announce Q2 earnings tomorrow morning pre-market. For the sake of the solar industry... I hope it's good.
"ST. PETERS, Mo., July 25, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- SunEdison, Inc. (NYSE: SUNE) invites investors to listen to a broadcast of the Company's conference call to discuss second quarter 2013 financial results. The live webcast will take place on Wednesday, August 7, 2013 at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time at www.sunedison.com. "
SolarCity - Events Presentations
This is 30 minutes prior to TSLA's conference call.
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SUNE will announce Q2 earnings tomorrow morning pre-market. For the sake of the solar industry... I hope it's good.
"ST. PETERS, Mo., July 25, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- SunEdison, Inc. (NYSE: SUNE) invites investors to listen to a broadcast of the Company's conference call to discuss second quarter 2013 financial results. The live webcast will take place on Wednesday, August 7, 2013 at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time at www.sunedison.com. "
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Norse
Active Member
Yeah, lets hope these guys can turn the trend! Got even some Stocks in Sune aswell. If they both do good tmrw, then they might save my SOL, TSL and CSIQ Calls aswell 
U still got any Dave?
U still got any Dave?
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I really don't know much at all about SCTY. I would ask DaveT, since he knows way more than I do.
Here is one thing I do know. Right now it seems like SCTY has a competitive advantage by not having to purchase their own panels. But I think that there is a remote albeit realistic possibility that this becomes a significant negative in the next 2-5 years. Remember, you have to see where the puck is going to be and not where it is. For that reason I buy CSIQ, SOL, and SPWR over SCTY.
Right now panels are cheap, but it looks like ASP's are slowly going up. SCTY buys from YGE and TSL, and that is because EU was a big loser for them, albeit still their largest market. Since the EU - China deal for minimum ASP's of ~$0.75 Europe has become a lot more attractive.
Also, there will be a panel supply and demand balance way sooner than people are expecting. This will ultimately lead to higher panel prices and panel manufacturers will be the big winners.
As far as tomorrow's earnings go I have no clue. I was trying to buy some deep OTM calls for Aug, but it was a complete gamble. I have not done any research at all on SCTY.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Here is a report on the global outlook for solar. http://www.solarindustrymag.com/e10...NH+08-07-2013&utm_campaign=SIM+News+Headlines
With solar you have to be patient. Today might be a good buying opportunity, if CSIQ is able to turn things around tomorrow morning. I am confident that they will, but there is still a lot of risk. I think that if you buy some Tier 1 Chinese solars today and hold for many years, then you will do more than ok.
Today looks like the worst day for solar this year, market is bleeding like crazy, sune the most with 20% down but spwr as well with a second day 11% down. I just lost all the money i made in the last 4month, feeling like crap and hoping scty will change the trend
Norse
Active Member
That is why I wrote near future and not today. And also why I used the word might instead of will. :tongue:
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