Gtoffo
Member
!!!!!!!!!!!!! Sorry guys.... was a bit too quick to post that.... did anyone discuss that piece of news on this forum?
The whole solar herd is moving today significantly..... was there any impactful new news?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
!!!!!!!!!!!!! Sorry guys.... was a bit too quick to post that.... did anyone discuss that piece of news on this forum?
The whole solar herd is moving today significantly..... was there any impactful new news?
I don't know exactly what Q3 results will bring, but I think that the stock is a steal at $4.50. Look for guidance and update on poly plant; those two things will be key. Also wafers got excluded from the EU-China negotiated deal and that is a new piece of information we got this week - this should be a huge benefit for Renesola.
I think that Renesola has (almost) the perfect business model for today's solar industry and the stock will do really good in 2014. I think it will hit double digit share price for sure.
Hey Sleepyhead,
I think you and someone else were putting together a site all about solar, is that finished? I already have some shares of Solar City, but would really like to get into some of these companies that actually make the panels. I agree with you that you have to study quite a bit on the sector, so I'm just looking for a starting place. I skim this thread every few days, so I know there are several companies to look at, but can't remember which ones are in the lead.
Thanks!
I think you and someone else were putting together a site all about solar, is that finished? I already have some shares of Solar City, but would really like to get into some of these companies that actually make the panels. I agree with you that you have to study quite a bit on the sector, so I'm just looking for a starting place. I skim this thread every few days, so I know there are several companies to look at, but can't remember which ones are in the lead.
Thanks!
You can find the site in my sig. It is a work in progress and we are planning on upgrading our site to 2.0 in the coming weeks at which point we should have better news flow. Then we will focus on getting more members who are interested in the topic. We will make a lot of money if we can focus on researching this industry as a team effort and then share our research and opinions.
The five Chinese solar companies that are investible:
CSIQ and JKS - the two leaders that have a chance to become even stronger, because they are profitable and generated a lot of cash flow in Q3. They will be able to start using this cash flow to dominate even more. Share prices are high for a good reason, but have plenty of room to run in 2014.
TSL - Knocking on the door of the first two, but nowhere close to the leaders in my opinion. Now that the valuation has come down a little it is starting to become a more attractive buy. I prefer JKS and CSIQ over TSL though, but still have some minor TSL exposure.
SOL and JASO - Two dark horses that are undervalued and can provide huge shareholder returns if they are able to turn a consistent profit. It might take them a quarter or two, but as of today it looks like it is only a matter of time; good to be in early on these two. Of course things change rapidly, so you really have to stay on top of the game.
Everything else is speculative: CSUN, YGE, LDK, STP, DQ, etc.
From the US solars I like SPWR the most, but I think that they all (SCTY, SUNE, FSLR) can do well (maybe even FSLR if they get their new Tetrasun panels in production soon; and they work).
CyberDutchie
Active Member
I have stock and calls in both. Stocks have been doing OK but my Mar 22 '14 $10 JASO calls are down 50%. I can't decide whether to get out and take a loss or buy more to average down. What do you think of the risk/reward for those given there is still 3.5 months to go?
I really can't help people with options, and I don't think anyone should be helping anyone else decide which calls/puts to buy/sell and when. I play options myself, but always discouraged others from playing options in solar because they are too volatile and the LEAPS are too expensive. You are on your own on this one. I think that everybody needs to be making their own options decisions 100% by themselves.
I thought solar would go up big leading up to Q3 and I was right. I thought that solar would go up even bigger after the great Q3 and I was wrong. I think that there might be some window dressing solar stocks in the month of December (since it is the best performing sector of 2013) and it will lead to a rally in the next few weeks. Some agree with me, but others think they might go down in December and then start a rally on Jan. 2.
I really have no idea what the solar industry will do in the short-term, but over 12+ months it is still looking really, really, really good. That can change in short notice though, but I doubt it will any time soon.
If I had that crystal ball I would be the richest man in the world :wink:
SPWR is still off 15%+ from it's high posted a few weeks back, so it is not the worst time to buy. It is just a matter of what do these solar stocks do in the short run, will they continue showing weakness or will they pop at any moment. I think that $30 is a great price for SPWR; it should be a lot higher by end of 2014. You might see lower prices in the next few weeks, but I wouldn't count on it.
I see. Thank you. I just don't want to get in where I shouldn't. I should have put some money in the company when I first saw you talking about it, but I was focused on Solar City.....one more thing - do you focus any at all on how the companies are managed or just on the trends? I try and follow the "Buffett" code by looking for companies with strong management.
I don't really focus on mgmt. because you will never get a true picture of management unless you actually work on Wall St. and personally know these guys that run these companies. I focus on business models, financials, and most importantly the macroeconomic picture within the industry.
In 2013 solar was so undervalued that it was a no-brainer to invest in the industry with improving economics. These stocks are still undervalued and the economics are only getting better. You can argue that these stocks are fairly valued today, but that depends on your view of 2014. The way I see 2014, it looks like these stocks will have plenty of room to run. Now is the stage when research really becomes beneficial to choosing the right stocks. 2013 was just too easy.
Sleepy and Norse: Got a prediction on Renasol (SOL) Q3ER and what will happen to the roughly $4.50 close price? I know with JASO and SOL predictions are a 'crap shoot' but just curious. I am not placing more money on your prediction...:wink:
Disclosure: SOL is my smallest holding ( JKS>CSIQ>SCTY>JASO>TSL>SOL )
Disclosure: SOL is my smallest holding ( JKS>CSIQ>SCTY>JASO>TSL>SOL )
Norse
Active Member
I am not gonna predict anything, but I do have a shitload of SOL Calls.
After JKS and TSL ERs it really shows how hard it is to predict the solar market, but the Stocks have lost alot of value since then.
The recent trading in SOL shows IMO that there is not much expectations for them this time, but I hope they have som surprises.
Anyways, I hold CSIQ, JKS and SOL atm. I also hold some JASO Calls, but they are not Worth much
After JKS and TSL ERs it really shows how hard it is to predict the solar market, but the Stocks have lost alot of value since then.
The recent trading in SOL shows IMO that there is not much expectations for them this time, but I hope they have som surprises.
Anyways, I hold CSIQ, JKS and SOL atm. I also hold some JASO Calls, but they are not Worth much
borat99
Member
Haha I like your enthusiasm. :biggrin: I'm on the same boat but think mine are APR so hopefully they will yield some profit before expiration. Hopefully, Christmas will come as early as tomorrow.
I am surprised you don't have any SPWR.
If I had to guess, I would say EPS -$0.10 excluding extraordinary items, 10.5% gross margin, $380m revenue. Complete guess on my part, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a small profit though.
The most important thing is that SOL is probably the most undervalued solar stock right now and it really doesn't have any room to go lower. The market is pricing it like a failing company, but all signs point to a company that is about to turn around in a great way.
Unless something out of the ordinary happened to make SOL's future prospects look a lot less promising, there really is no room left for the stock to go down any lower; absolutely none. We will find out tomorrow, but remember that SOL is sold out of panels for at least 6 months so you would have to be an idiot to sell out and still be losing money.
I am not gonna predict anything, but I do have a shitload of SOL Calls.
I also hold some JASO Calls, but they are not Worth much
I am positioned only in SOL stock, but I do have some OTM JASO options...small amounts March '15 $11 (ouch) but Jan '16 $8 (hope there). Currently both are 'in the red'. I really am going to stick to stocks and LEAPS. Shorter term options just lose me $.
OK. Hypothetically speaking:wink:. If you had a certain dollar amount that you wanted to put into 'solar' and you held positions in JKS, CSIQ, TSL, SCTY, JASO and SOL which would you sell to buy SPWR?
Last edited:
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Hypothetically speaking I would have sold SCTY ay $65 and bought SPWR at $30. Since you like SCTY then keep it, because your other 5 positions don't really offer any diversification. I wouldn't sell anything other than SCTY, but you might want to keep that one. So sell a little of everything to buy some SPWR. Normally I would have said to sell TSL, but it is beaten down so much that it might be due for a rally in the near future; actually they all are.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Alternative Energy Investor Discussions (formerly SCTY thread)
The nice thing about the solar industry is that high level management is usually accessible. If you attend the big solar shows you can likely meet some of the VP's and possibly even the ceo's. Also watching how the employees of the companies act during these shows is a big eye opener. There is a solar hot water manufacture that we will never do business with because of their marketing gimmick they pulled at a big show last year. It was the most tasteless thing I have ever seen a major company do.
If you are spending tens of thousands of dollars investing in the solar industry it's probably a good idea to spend the $700 for a plane ticket $150 for an expo floor pass, and $400 for a night or two at a hotel.
The nice thing about the solar industry is that high level management is usually accessible. If you attend the big solar shows you can likely meet some of the VP's and possibly even the ceo's. Also watching how the employees of the companies act during these shows is a big eye opener. There is a solar hot water manufacture that we will never do business with because of their marketing gimmick they pulled at a big show last year. It was the most tasteless thing I have ever seen a major company do.
If you are spending tens of thousands of dollars investing in the solar industry it's probably a good idea to spend the $700 for a plane ticket $150 for an expo floor pass, and $400 for a night or two at a hotel.
Last edited:
Similar threads
- Locked
