Articles/megaposts by DaveT

[JRP3]

Pretty much a risk for every company at any time if it happens.

 

[Rarity]

A risk factor for TSLA is if the economy heads into a recession within the next year or two.

And an opportunity for Tesla, if factories become available on the cheap and Tesla is prepared. My guess is that Tesla is currently considering Lordstown for the Model Y. Musk has been hedging his bets publicly on where that will be produced.

 

[replicant]

Unless the recession is due, partly at least, by the transition to EVs: people delaying car purchases so as to replace their current ICE vehicles with affordable EVs. In that case, the rest of the auto industry will suffer (and the economy in general), while EVs sales will soar, making a nice virtuous circle for Tesla.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

A risk factor for TSLA is if the economy heads into a recession within the next year or two.

In a recession, people move toward more fuel-efficient cars with lower operating costs. So, in a world of perfect awareness, that would give Tesla a growing share of a shrinking automotive pie, keeping sales flat or even growing.

Of course, we don’t live in a world of perfect awareness, so it’s harder to say what will happen rather than what should happen.

 

[wdolson]

A risk factor for TSLA is if the economy heads into a recession within the next year or two.

I have been concerned about that for a while. Though the nature of the recession will effect Tesla differently.

And an opportunity for Tesla, if factories become available on the cheap and Tesla is prepared. My guess is that Tesla is currently considering Lordstown for the Model Y. Musk has been hedging his bets publicly on where that will be produced.

I doubt Tesla will takeover Lordstown. That's a union shop and Tesla can't take it over without retaining the UAW by Ohio state law.

In a recession, people move toward more fuel-efficient cars with lower operating costs. So, in a world of perfect awareness, that would give Tesla a growing share of a shrinking automotive pie, keeping sales flat or even growing.

Of course, we don’t live in a world of perfect awareness, so it’s harder to say what will happen rather than what should happen.

It depends on the nature of the recession. If there is something that sends oil prices skyrocketing (like a war in the Middle East that disrupts oil supplies), people will flock to electric cars, but if the economy downturns with little change in oil prices, or a decrease, it may have little impact on electric cars.

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Accordingly, Moderators are directing further discussion there. This thread will remain so that its earlier posts will not be lost in the time-slotted order that would occur were the two threads to be merged.

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