Chart examples near SP500 inclusion

[MABMAB]

My aim is to show some examples of what happens surrounding a stock in the months before and after inclusion in the SP 500. I think I will show a daily chart positioning the addition date near the middle, also a weekly chart for added long term perspective.

First off is Wabtech, WAB, added 2/27/19. Strikes me as a good balance to the bullishness.

For politeness, click thumbnails to see larger.

 

[MABMAB]

Redhat. Added 7/27/09. Seems to be 50% price run in months prior to adding. Popped after adding, then came back before resuming long trend. I traded this in the day, did not make money.

 

[MABMAB]

Service now, NOW, added 11/21/19. I also played with this a little, never understood it well enough to hold onto. Clearly I'd be better off if I had gone all in and bought and held.

 

[MABMAB]

Dexcom, DXCM, a major winner for some of late. Great new products with added services over the old tech. Diabetes continuous glucose monitoring along with insulin pump integration, first line therapy for diabetes. Virtual pancreas possibilites. Added 5/12/20. I added a third chart showing a huge gap that held, kind of the scenario chart worriers could be concerned about in TSLA.

 

[MABMAB]

Steris, I think they handle medical waste, perhaps more. STE. Added 12/23/19. Price about even now, had big multi year run before addition.

 

[MABMAB]

Gartner, IT, added 4/5/17. Zoomed in a little closer on the daily, maybe 10% move close to the actual addition. 2nd chart shows previous two earnings, first of which caused a big pop. Not all that much of a grower since then, certainly compared to todays chart. Perhaps fundamentals rule the long term game?

 

[MABMAB]

LKQ, I think they recycle cars and car parts. Added 5/23/16. Is this an exponential growth business? What will happen with changing auto market? Seems to me that a more important concern is the underlying business, its growth prospects, and proper execution.

 

[MABMAB]

Ulta, added 4/1816. Another example of a gap or two that held up. Also another example of stock that had recently plunged below the 200 day average.

 

[MABMAB]

INCY added 2/28/17, I think a Pharma company. Added just weeks after a 5th profitable quarter. ho hum long term action.

 

[MABMAB]

OK, I am going to move onto some larger newer growth companies for some hopefully better comps.

AMGN added1/2/92. Decent move before addition, great long term action. Took a few weeks retreat after addition. What we all want to see over our lifetimes for TSLA?

 

[MABMAB]

Google, added 4/3/6. Looks kind of unremarkable around the addition. Perhaps a slight run up in price, then things sat around for a while, months, before taking out new highs.

 

[MABMAB]

NFLX, added 12/20/10. The big red volume spike is on the 17th. Decent move up before the addition. Here is what I love about this one, the long term story stayed intact and those that bought and held, even at the addition, were rewarded over time. 10 years later the stock is like 20 times the addition price!

 

[MABMAB]

FB, added 12/23/2019. I dont see anything tradeable here

 

[MABMAB]

OK, So my gut check conclusions:

Lots of variability, no generalities.
Some win, some lose.
Long term overall picture more important.
I'll take a big move up in TSLA before inclusion, but perhaps we are already in the midst of it? Is there more?
How much stock do MM have that they bought lower and are willing to sell even here and now?
Every share in existence is profitable now.
I am going to stick to the plan.

 

[generalenthu]

FB, added 12/23/2019. I dont see anything tradeable here

View attachment 560671

FB was added in dec 2013

 

[MABMAB]

FB was added in dec 2013

LOL, living up to my name again...

OK, FB from 2013. If the indices only get a week notice, not much pre movement. Immediate before this earnings list both a small gain and a small loss? After those earnings things sold hard, brief, then popped. Again, does not look strongly trending or tradeable to me.