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  1. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It sounds to me like there is nothing stopping the judge from citing a benefit to the shareholders and ordering Tesla to pay the lawyers. The optics look horrible. I am sure that the lawyers are gonna make a case for a couple of billion and the judge may reduce it to a few hundred million. Would...
  2. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    https://www.ft.com/content/9c027da5-612d-46b2-870b-684e640ed7be
  3. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    VW cutting BEV production because, reasons.. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/volkswagen-slashes-electric-vehicle-production-amid-strong-customer-reluctance/ar-AA1dfIEn?AutomotiveVentures
  4. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla hiring folks to train LLMs on Dojo! I didn't think this would happen after x.ai. https://www.tesla.com/careers/search/job/machine-learning-engineer-llm-autopilot-ai-dojo-188992
  5. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This here. Despite the doomer headlines this is like QE, where government is spending as usual without draining that money by issuing debt. They're raiding the couch and spending it. The coffers will be refilled once the ceiling is raised. That will be like QT on steroids. Not looking forward...
  6. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    probably highest ROI is going to be showing some key word based ads for those searching for things like a CR-V, RAV4, etc. A lot of these ppl may simply be blind to the Model Y value proposition. Ironically, Y is selling very well in the US. If anything the 3 may need more demand but probably...
  7. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ha, nice pivot from let's buy advertising to, let's sell advertising.
  8. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Toyota was hampered by chip supplies. They just released their Q4 earnings, which handily beat consensus and released next year guidance which had increasing sales and profits across all regions due to improving supplies. This does sound fishy as the gains in Tesla volumes have to come from...
  9. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Let's see. I think the unboxed build process has to be tried on a lower volume line. While it's less than even odds, I wouldn't mind a surprise. Also now that giga mexico is breaking ground soon, and to the extent that it's a machine that builds the machine, it's necessary to deeply understand...
  10. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I have seen no speculation on the highland 3 production starting in Shanghai. Seems like no cell phones are allowed, which is pretty nuts, if it were a run of the mill Y casting for 3, and some minor front end changes. So some juicy speculation is warranted and here is my guess: I think Tesla...
  11. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No kidding. pull up a 5 yr chart of Autozone (AZO, no position). They will be doing very well for the next few years as used cars are kept on the roads for longer and longer.
  12. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Cut it by 69. All the newspapers will run a news story. Free advertising!
  13. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The AWD LR 3 is more expensive to make than the Y. So it's only available in performance trim. This should be remedied when highland ships. Tesla does care about margin, but that's a secret. Psssshhh..
  14. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am with @Ogre on this. To a significant extent this is already reflected in the valuations. I think Tesla is fairly valued here if you believe robotaxi is not a thing and FSD will never sell in significant numbers (street view), assuming some execution uncertainty. Since shorting is not a...
  15. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This might be an old video actually, as the front row has 3 seats. I wish they shipped with 3.
  16. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well, solar financing was ground zero for this innovation and SCTY did this spades. There are surely economic upsides and it can foster adoption, as these innovative financing structures have proved in the past. The downside is, it becomes hard to differentiate true economic performance vs...
  17. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I believe the cost basis for the new shares is higher. So whenever you sell them, you will have lower taxes due. But do check with a tax advisor. A good brokerage should probably adjust the cost basis automatically for you.
  18. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    not a good idea to refer to chatgpt for hard numbers. It has a tendency to hallucinate and if you ask the same question again it might show up with different results. That is unless you are using it just for formatting or you have a plugin which can lookup the actual numbers.
  19. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230420005981/en/Mercedes-Benz-Group-AG-Strong-preliminary-results-for-the-first-quarter-2023-exceed-capital-market-expectations Who are all these people increasingly buying these Mercedes cars for a premium. May be some of the German members can throw...
  20. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thank you for the very considered response. Agree Tesla is doing most everything to promote the product. I did want to better understand the argument of the pro-advertising people and here is the picture I came up with: Essentially I am assuming that knowledge of the product and propensity to...
  21. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Crazy to see you a long timer fall for this GJ nonsense. There is a ton still happening. Berlin ramping up, Austin cyber truck tooling, 4680 ramp, Lathrop ramp, Shanghai mega factory ramp, Corpus Christi refining plant, but may not be significant, along with Mexico GF. Lots of irons in the fire.
  22. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am not sure how much twitter helps, as Elon is the most followed there, and even if you're not following him, the timeline is sure to show his tweets as they tend to be the most popular. If its worth doing ads, targeted ads at those who have searched for Tesla could be the highest ROI, like...
  23. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I looked at twitter for a bit on the arguments between the usual Tesla folks - Gary, Whole Mars, Farzad, and a bunch of other usual suspects, and advertising seems to be the hot topic. While no one directly brought up advertising the conference call, there was a question around Elasticity of...
  24. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tell them Tesla is prioritizing volumes over near term profits. Income dropping from last year is not FUD. That's what Tesla reported.
  25. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Was just catching up on the starship news this AM. I think the team has been incredibly lucky that the ship managed to clear the tower. At least 6 engines were out, suspected to have happened on the pad due to all the debris from below. Obviously there were no standard flame trenches or water...
  26. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Totally agree, and the reason that wasn't said was that it goes against the subsidies are not needed narrative. Also missed opportunity to point out the possible revenue streams from insurance, supercharger, premium connectivity, etc, while we wait for FSD, as they trade off margin for volumes...
  27. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    yes, the interconnection queues are a huge pain. the revenue might take a while to be recognized. Meanwhile this deployed stuff counts as inventory increase, and extends the cash conversion cycle. The thread below has some hard numbers, and I hope Tesla has been smart enough to sidestep the...
  28. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am calculating the same. 18.3% GM which is lower than Zach's Q1 estimate. That's 1.7% shortfall over guidance, and translates to $800 in ASP shortfall. I suppose, the volume guidance for the rest of the year should go up, now that the weakest qtr is behind us. Just seasonally estimating rest...
  29. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    A theory with some credibility: HW4 is incoming. Cybertruck is going to ship with it. This is the last batch of the lineup shipping with HW3. That way there won't be *any* complaining when there is a price hike as HW4 is introduced (/s).
  30. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Feels like quite the pandemonium from the price cuts. Well deserved by the legacy auto, I'd say. Source: seeking something..
  31. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Any Tesla related stuff from the Tucker Carlson interview? Don't feel like wading through Twitter or watching
  32. generalenthu

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I was just thinking about how Zach made these comments after price cuts across geographies in Q1, and I believe there was a slight adjustment upwards in the latter half of the qtr. Unless there has been an unexpected mix shift towards China, (I dont think this happened), the 47k ASP is a solid...
  33. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    wow.. he has almost 2 million shares equivalent with 70% of them fully owned or low strike call options (~$20). rest 30% are at 143. I dont remember anyone else getting so much equity, even Drew or Zach. Of course JB likely owns more, but he was a co-founder. Looks like Elon really wanted Tom...
  34. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    https://www.tomshardware.com/news/elon-musk-buys-tens-of-thousands-of-gpus-for-twitter-ai-project Dang, I was hoping Tesla would do this LLM development instead of Twitter. Anyways, I do think Twitter will be the first external customer for dojo. And likewise these LLM models would definitely...
  35. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I asked ChatGPT about it.. New Rules: THIS thread will not countenance the promulgation of ChatGPT or other such artificially created entries. Serious or no, jocular or no, On- or Off-topic or no. It already is hard enough - nigh impossible for most - to discern what is or is not the product...
  36. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is an interesting rivian thread. Couple of takeaways I thought were relevant: 1. As Rivian charging stations are opened up to other cars, they expect to recover 80% of the cost from federal grants 2. While trucks are popular in the US, they argue that traditional trucks are too cramped and...
  37. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You're misguided if you think large companies like Amazon, Microsoft together with what OpenAI are not workign on this. You just have to watch the video below. The design may have a slightly different line of thinking than optimus, but they are surely thinking of this.
  38. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    GPT4 said transformers are better discriminators than diffusion models to predict stuff. then I asked why the reverse could be true. This sounds reasonable to me, and give the state of the art on diffusion algos, this doesnt seem too hard. Me: GPT4:
  39. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Wow, an article that has nothing negative to say about Tesla. Don't remember seeing one in the recent past. Australia Is Quitting Coal in Record Time Thanks to Tesla
  40. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Anyone think Tesla would acquire redwood and JB takes over as CEO? Less than even odds, but I want the bragging rights if it comes to pass.
  41. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Funny that a climate action etf has more in NVDA than in TSLA. That's is underweight TSLA even after adjusting for relative mcap.
  42. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Was just skimming the report and I wish they spent a couple of hours having a few peeps proofread this thing. Noticing a few typos, which necessarily doesn't inspire confidence.
  43. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Looks like a good amount of work has gone into this. I would be most interested in hearing from someone like @JesseJenkins on twitter who is a Princeton prof and dedicated his life to this sort of analysis. There is a big cabal of energy transition experts on Twitter who have dug in deep into...
  44. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Surprise output cut by OPEC this weekend and oil is rallying. Interesting both long term and short term, because even in the short term I felt that the correlation with oil seemed to be increasing
  45. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    April 18th for new EV tax credit rules.
  46. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    take it with a lump of salt, but this is what ChatGPT-4 told me. it may just end up pushing demand from Jan and Feb to March.
  47. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think someone mentioned a quirk around registration/ taxes that might push some deliveries after 3/31. May be it was @petit_bateau ?
  48. generalenthu

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ha, it doesn't matter what you or I think. He's on the record saying that. I am not being judgemental but just stating facts. If Elon thinks Tesla should do something, Tesla will likely do that. To be fair to Elon's point of view though, some people bought a few Exxon shares, waged a proxy...