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Crazy Analysts
- Thread starter elasalle
- Start date
Whose chart is this? I can't figure it out from the chart itself. And I am bemused to note that Q3/Q4 are NOT marked as upside surprises...
TSLA: Tesla Inc - Stock Quote and News - CNBC
If you hover over the histogram ..
TSLA reported 3rd qtr 2018 earnings of $2.90 per share on 10/24/18. This beat the $-0.19 consensus of the 22 analysts covering the company.
TSLA reported 4th qtr 2018 earnings of $1.93 per share on 1/30/19. This missed the $2.20 consensus of the 23 analysts covering the company.
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Here's a few analyst estimates.
[1] RBC Joseph Spak ~3/25 [1]
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[1] RBC Joseph Spak ~3/25 [1]
- 2019 full year M3: 261k
- 2019 full year S&X: 86.4k
- Q1 M3 deliveries: 52.5k
- Q1 S&X deliveries: 19.2k
- 1Q GAAP ($1.80)
- 1Q Non-GAAP ($0.64)
- 2019 Non-GAAP ($0.33)
- 1Q19 FCF ($750mm)
- 1Q19 ending cash $2bn
- 2019 FCF ($430mm)
- Q1 M3 deliveries: 47.5k
- Q1 S&X deliveries: 18k
- Q1 M3 deliveries: 50k
- Q1 deliveries (I'm guessing M3): 48k
- Q1 net loss ($311mm)
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Jefferies and Baird both have Buy ratings and Tesla stock targets in the mid $400's.
Q1 total deliveries and Model 3 deliveries estimates from Jefferies/Baird is 72K/67K and 52K/50K.
Q1 EPS from Baird is 0.07 while Jefferies estimates a $50M EBIT loss.
Q1 revenue estimates are $5.6B/$5.2B
Jefferies estimates $3B in cash end of 1Q.
Q1 total deliveries and Model 3 deliveries estimates from Jefferies/Baird is 72K/67K and 52K/50K.
Q1 EPS from Baird is 0.07 while Jefferies estimates a $50M EBIT loss.
Q1 revenue estimates are $5.6B/$5.2B
Jefferies estimates $3B in cash end of 1Q.
If I actually thought that anything any of these analysts said was worth the paper it was printed on, I would pay for access to their reports. It is still shocking to me how tricky it is to actually get these analyst estimates. Has anyone asked someone like FactSet what the going rate is?
On Monday after TSLA/FCA pool for EU emissions was announced ...
Tesla: Morgan Stanley drops target to $240, concerned negative sentiment could impact core business - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas says he's increasingly concerned about the impact that investor concerns over Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) "financial strength and liquidity could have on employee morale, customer perceptions and standing with key stakeholders and suppliers."
If and how Tesla can access capital is a top theme in discussions with investors. Jonas assumes Tesla will raise $2.5B in equity in Q3; says even bullish investors support a capital raise to put to sleep questions around its financing needs.
"The fundamental narrative around Tesla appears more clouded than we have seen in several years. Signs of weakening demand have raised long-standing questions about the company’s ability to fund itself as an independent company."
Jonas drops his Tesla price target to $240 (previous $260).
TSLA +1.6% to $279.10 in premarket trading.
Tesla: Morgan Stanley drops target to $240, concerned negative sentiment could impact core business - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas says he's increasingly concerned about the impact that investor concerns over Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) "financial strength and liquidity could have on employee morale, customer perceptions and standing with key stakeholders and suppliers."
If and how Tesla can access capital is a top theme in discussions with investors. Jonas assumes Tesla will raise $2.5B in equity in Q3; says even bullish investors support a capital raise to put to sleep questions around its financing needs.
"The fundamental narrative around Tesla appears more clouded than we have seen in several years. Signs of weakening demand have raised long-standing questions about the company’s ability to fund itself as an independent company."
Jonas drops his Tesla price target to $240 (previous $260).
TSLA +1.6% to $279.10 in premarket trading.
Jefferies cuts Tesla ahead critical tests - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Jefferies lowers its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target from $450 to $400 citing the Q1 miss in mix and delivered units with the "critical tests" coming in Q2 demand elasticity "as lower priced M3 versions become available and sorting out logistics."
Jefferies: "The announcement of an 'Open Pool' with FCA to reduce calculated CO2 emissions in Europe could generate several $ million of cash income, possibly starting this year.”
Jefferies lowers its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target from $450 to $400 citing the Q1 miss in mix and delivered units with the "critical tests" coming in Q2 demand elasticity "as lower priced M3 versions become available and sorting out logistics."
Jefferies: "The announcement of an 'Open Pool' with FCA to reduce calculated CO2 emissions in Europe could generate several $ million of cash income, possibly starting this year.”
UPDATE 2-David Einhorn's Greenlight says Tesla 'on the brink' of failure
David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital renewed criticism of Elon Musk and Tesla Inc, saying the electric car company appeared to be “on the brink” of failure again, according to a letter sent to clients of the hedge fund on Friday.
David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital renewed criticism of Elon Musk and Tesla Inc, saying the electric car company appeared to be “on the brink” of failure again, according to a letter sent to clients of the hedge fund on Friday.
mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
However, even with the concern, Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch is maintaining his Outperform rating and $437 price target on the stock, which implies about 40% upside from current levels.
4/18 - Oppenheimer Still Sees 40% Upside for Tesla (TSLA) Stock
4/18 - Oppenheimer Still Sees 40% Upside for Tesla (TSLA) Stock
After Q1 19 earnings:
Wedbush lowered its price target on Tesla to $275 a share from $365 a share, a nearly 25% cut. The new target implies 6.3 percent upside from Wednesday’s close.
Profitability will not 'magically return to the Tesla story,' analyst says in downgrade
Morgan Stanley forecasts Tesla will raise $2.5 billion in the third quarter of this year, coming “from strategic sources,” Jonas said. The firm has a $240 a share price target on Tesla’s stock, as Jonas said “concerns over demand and liquidity” will weigh on the stock
Top Tesla analyst: Musk is going to have to raise $2.5 billion in capital, weighing on stock
Wedbush lowered its price target on Tesla to $275 a share from $365 a share, a nearly 25% cut. The new target implies 6.3 percent upside from Wednesday’s close.
Profitability will not 'magically return to the Tesla story,' analyst says in downgrade
Morgan Stanley forecasts Tesla will raise $2.5 billion in the third quarter of this year, coming “from strategic sources,” Jonas said. The firm has a $240 a share price target on Tesla’s stock, as Jonas said “concerns over demand and liquidity” will weigh on the stock
Top Tesla analyst: Musk is going to have to raise $2.5 billion in capital, weighing on stock
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