Discerning Signal from Noise

[Jack6591]

Discerning signal from noise on this website requires burning way too many calories—the site is becoming tiresome...boring.

 

[Ostrichsak]

Cool story bro.

 

[Jack6591]

I growing weary of the FUD tsunami.

 

[Skipdd]

Discerning signal from noise on this website requires burning way too many calories—the site is becoming tiresome...boring.

Ok I’ll bite. Now both our posts are “noise.” Try following those whose posts you find valuable, mark threads you find of interest, and search for issues if you have them. But you surely know all this. So what’s the point?

 

[Ostrichsak]

Ok I’ll bite. Now both our posts are “noise.” Try following those whose posts you find valuable, mark threads you find of interest, and search for issues if you have them. But you surely know all this. So what’s the point?

Bingo. Guy is seemingly discouraged by amount of "noise" on forum and promptly creates a thread of nothing but "noise" in order to combat? Win!

 

[Gwgan]

Discerning signal from noise on this website requires burning way too many calories

I growing weary of the FUD tsunami.

Taking issue with noise on the forum or FUD in the world at large or FUD on this website?

IMO more owners/lookers = more noise on the site. More success Tesla has = more FUD.

It does take time but it is not hard. Anything anybody thinks is moving the stock = noise (except Papafox's short reporting). Interior construction started at Shanghai GF = signal. My New Year's resolution was to stay away, lasted about a quarter.

 

[gnuarm]

Taking issue with noise on the forum or FUD in the world at large or FUD on this website?

IMO more owners/lookers = more noise on the site. More success Tesla has = more FUD.

It does take time but it is not hard. Anything anybody thinks is moving the stock = noise (except Papafox's short reporting). Interior construction started at Shanghai GF = signal. My New Year's resolution was to stay away, lasted about a quarter.

I'm surprised anyone is claiming FUD at this point. Tesla had a low point a year ago when struggling to get the model 3 into volume production with many worried that it may not happen before the company went belly up. Ok, those people were not basing their concerns on facts. But now the company has no unusually large expenditures but they are still losing money at the same high rate and there is no reason to think the company will be profitable any time soon... according to the CFO.

Is that really FUD anymore? Sounds like valid concerns to me.

 

[Gwgan]

I don’t disagree with the facts behind your summary but

still losing money

is an example of F.U.D. by using a scary term to describe facts. HyperCharts The headlines are filled with this kind of language. Margins are declining but revenue and capex are increasing, one is a crank and the other has a rheostat so if T wants to change margins they just turn the dial down. It does not bode well if they do not manage that balance and we can all talk about how well or poorly they are doing that and how we think they could do better and media could just report on exactly how they are doing that (without specifically omitting the positives i.e. Maxwell).
That’s my take on FUD but it may not have anything to do with the OP’s concern and is just more forum nose.

 

[Missile Toad]

Don't worry. Elon is having his lawyer check his tweets before they go out

 

[gnuarm]

I don’t disagree with the facts behind your summary but is an example of F.U.D. by using a scary term to describe facts. HyperCharts The headlines are filled with this kind of language. Margins are declining but revenue and capex are increasing, one is a crank and the other has a rheostat so if T wants to change margins they just turn the dial down. It does not bode well if they do not manage that balance and we can all talk about how well or poorly they are doing that and how we think they could do better and media could just report on exactly how they are doing that (without specifically omitting the positives i.e. Maxwell).
That’s my take on FUD but it may not have anything to do with the OP’s concern and is just more forum nose.

I'm not sure what your point is. Yeah, in theory the company needs to spend money to increase future capacity. The problem is the model 3 was supposed to finance it. It is failing to do that. Initially people rallied behind the company saying this was just Q1 transition to foreign sales and some specifically pointed to deliveries that didn't make the Q1 cut off and now will count in Q2. Then Tesla said expect losses to continue into Q2. They are also saying they may not make money in Q3.

Obviously there is more going on than just the transition to foreign sales. By all accounts demand is down. The one thing that Tesla can't weather is a loss of demand so that the factories they have built can't make a profit. The auto market in general is in a slump and the winter is a slow time for auto sales. If they can't make a profit in Q3, why would they make one in Q4?

The problem is there is no crank to turn. How exactly can they make a profit if they are building 7,000 cars a week but only selling 5,000?

The next big event will be making model 3s in China for that market. Just like every major step Tesla takes, this will be life or death. Model 3s in the US have not turned sour, but they aren't the honey factory that was planned. They need the Shanghai factory to work out better. I don't know if they can continue to get capital for the model Y.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I'm not sure what your point is. Yeah, in theory the company needs to spend money to increase future capacity. The problem is the model 3 was supposed to finance it. It is failing to do that. Initially people rallied behind the company saying this was just Q1 transition to foreign sales and some specifically pointed to deliveries that didn't make the Q1 cut off and now will count in Q2. Then Tesla said expect losses to continue into Q2. They are also saying they may not make money in Q3.

Obviously there is more going on than just the transition to foreign sales. By all accounts demand is down. The one thing that Tesla can't weather is a loss of demand so that the factories they have built can't make a profit. The auto market in general is in a slump and the winter is a slow time for auto sales. If they can't make a profit in Q3, why would they make one in Q4?

The problem is there is no crank to turn. How exactly can they make a profit if they are building 7,000 cars a week but only selling 5,000?

The next big event will be making model 3s in China for that market. Just like every major step Tesla takes, this will be life or death. Model 3s in the US have not turned sour, but they aren't the honey factory that was planned. They need the Shanghai factory to work out better. I don't know if they can continue to get capital for the model Y.

I wouldn't conflate a drop in Tesla's S3X deliveries with a drop in demand after a single quarter. They clearly slowed/stopped S/X production because they were upgrading the S/X and their lines, and deliveries fell as a result. I believe they may have done the same with the 3 early in January, although that didn't hit their bottom line as much as stopping S/X production for upgrades did.

They're also forecasting a smaller loss for Q2 and a return to profitability in Q3 last I checked.

Operating cash flow less capex should be positive in every quarter including Q2. As the impact of higher deliveries and cost reduction take full effect, we expect to return to profitability in Q3 and significantly reduce our loss in Q2.

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b2218d34-fbee-4f1f-ac95-050eb29dd42f

 

[Koch Killer]

Bingo. Guy is seemingly discouraged by amount of "noise" on forum and promptly creates a thread of nothing but "noise" in order to combat? Win!

Also, I have to drive 6 miles (1.3 kWh) to get to my gym to burn calories. Would be happy to burn them online