EVs: Have We Finally Reached Some Sort of Mental Turning Point?

[FutureShock]

Regarding EVs... don't things somehow feel strangely 'different' right now? Like the ground's starting to shift under our feet? But in a good way?

The Model 3 is launching to great fanfare and simply enormous order backlogs. The big German automakers, to hear them and the press tell it, are running a bit scared and have suddenly started to prioritize EVs in a big way.

At extended-family gatherings, I hear regular people, i.e. not liberal or 'tree-hugger-y' at all, talk about how they're interested in EVs and may get one as their next car. There is an aura of 'cool' that has really started to build around EVs, as opposed to the 'bad old days' where they were denigrated as 'glorified golf carts' and generally guffawed at.

EV's image has been changing slowly for years now, sure... but it feels like we've hit a sort of 'critical mass' of late. A turning point. Or a 'point of no return', if you like.

It feels like more and more ppl are starting to acknowledge what we've known all along... EVs are the future. And the future's almost here. Some are acknowledging grudgingly, others happily, but... they are acknowledging, by and large.

Sure, ICEs aren't 'dead', despite some of the more breathless, click-bait articles written to that effect. The transition will be a relatively long one, maybe another generation. But, I think if we were travel forward in time say 20 or 30 years, and look back... 2017 might be the time we'd note as where 'the tide really began to turn'.

It's an odd feeling. Good, but odd. Makes you think, 'Why now?'. Why not 5 years ago? Why not 5 years from now? 10? What exactly causes a collective mental 'critical mass' in thought and attitude to start to happen? And, can anything reverse it (I'm sure Exxon's desperately hard at work on that one).
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[AustinPowers]

It's an odd feeling. Good, but odd. Makes you think, 'Why now?'. Why not 5 years ago? Why not 5 years from now? 10?

I don't get that feeling over here at all. Whenever I talk about BEVs with other people, I seem to be the "odd one out". Some people agree with me that current tech is not future-proof, but the majority still think BEVs have a very long and hard path ahead of them before they can become mainstream. Might have to do with the fact that most people over here have for years been indoctrinated with arguments like "too expensive", "short range", "complicated refuelling", "too many compromises", "unproven reliability" and so on.
And Tesla is only known as a niche manufacturer from the US, with great image and fast cars, but far too expensive for the vast majority. And Model 3 is still more than a year out - over here. Actually, someone in the US ordering today will get his/her Model 3 earlier than those of us over here who reserved on day one. Quite annoying actually, and a showstopper for quite a few people I know who might otherwise have been interested.

 

[OBX John]

I think we have reached a "tipping point" where EV interest should start to accelerate.

What you are feeling is the result of the positive press of late, but there may be some bias from self selection as we enthusiasts tend to read the most positive articles as well. The general public is SLOWLY catching on, but there's still a large percentage of people who've never heard of a Tesla if you can believe it. Even some "green" people I know have been astounded to learn my car is electric.

I'm most gratified to see the big automakers waking up to realize that EVs are the future, and they'd better adapt lest they go extinct.

 

[renim]

its a matter of personal psychology.

As a global cohort, each and every year the increase in electric vehicles is a smaller % than the preceding year. but the amount of electric vehicles added is greater than the preceding year.

technically the point of inflection is when the amount added each year is less than the amount added the preceding year. By then the market share will probably be around 50%.

2016 was liftoff year for EVs in China,
2018 will be liftoff year for EVs in USA. the transition from imaginary to real for GM Bolt, Tesla 3, LEAF gen 2. is a major step. (+ SUV/minivan PHEVs)
don't know about EU or Japan.

 

[FutureShock]

I think we have reached a "tipping point" where EV interest should start to accelerate.

What you are feeling is the result of the positive press of late, but there may be some bias from self selection as we enthusiasts tend to read the most positive articles as well.

The general public is SLOWLY catching on, but there's still a large percentage of people who've never heard of a Tesla if you can believe it. Even some "green" people I know have been astounded to learn my car is electric.

I'm most gratified to see the big automakers waking up to realize that EVs are the future, and they'd better adapt lest they go extinct.

Sums it up. And well said.
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