FSD Competition for Tesla

[Smitty79]

All Teslas, sold today, are promised to have the hardware to achieve full autonomy. Is any other brand producing cars with expected to have capability for full autonomy when they finally get the software right?

I tend to keep cars for a long time. I'm looking for another EV soon. Getting a car with promise of full autonomy in the future is valuable to me.

 

[Daniel in SD]

All Teslas, sold today, are promised to have the hardware to achieve full autonomy. Is any other brand producing cars with expected to have capability for full autonomy when they finally get the software right?

I tend to keep cars for a long time. I'm looking for another EV soon. Getting a car with promise of full autonomy in the future is valuable to me.

No.
Tesla is no longer promising full autonomy (read the fine print!). If you want a promise of full autonomy you should buy used Tesla with FSD sold before March 2019. How much that promise is worth is a topic of much debate around here.

 

[john pane]

They've been saying that since 2016 and it has proven false.

 

[momo3605]

No.
Tesla is no longer promising full autonomy (read the fine print!). If you want a promise of full autonomy you should buy used Tesla with FSD sold before March 2019. How much that promise is worth is a topic of much debate around here.

What are your thoughts on what Tesla says today on the autopilot page of their site?

Autopilot

All new Tesla vehicles are equipped with the hardware needed for Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features, designed to improve functionality over time.

www.tesla.com

"All new Tesla cars have the hardware needed in the future for full self-driving in almost all circumstances. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat."

This is the same as what was claimed before March 2019. If it says no action required by the person in the driver's seat, that means L4, same as what was posted before I believe.

 

[Daniel in SD]

What are your thoughts on what Tesla says today on the autopilot page of their site?

Autopilot

All new Tesla vehicles are equipped with the hardware needed for Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features, designed to improve functionality over time.

www.tesla.com

"All new Tesla cars have the hardware needed in the future for full self-driving in almost all circumstances. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat."

This is the same as what was claimed before March 2019. If it says no action required by the person in the driver's seat, that means L4, same as what was posted before I believe.

The fine print now says "dependent on achieving". I'll sell you a trip to Kepler 22B dependent on me achieving faster than light travel.
The first version was "dependent on extensive software validation".

 

[Smitty79]

Are there any current or near term competitors selling a car or planning to sell a car, under $75,000, with a similar promise to Tesla's?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Are there any current or near term competitors selling a car or planning to sell a car, under $75,000, with a similar promise to Tesla's?

No.

Tesla is currently promising "Autosteer on City Streets"
I think there are some Chinese car companies promising end to end city L2 systems.

 

[momo3605]

The fine print now says "dependent on achieving". I'll sell you a trip to Kepler 22B dependent on me achieving faster than light travel.
The first version was "dependent on extensive software validation".

So if they achieve it for pre-March 2019 cars, why wouldn't they have achieved it for post-March 2019 cars?

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

No, but I would urge caution on buying any kind of equipment where the manufacture claims it will do something once the SW is finalized.

So often the SW never accomplishes what was originally envisioned.

I knew back in 2018 when I purchased FSD that it likely would never be capable of accomplishing what was planned for it, but I figured they'd at least do something worth while. That something might or might not happen 2 weeks from now.

 

[Tam]

...promise of full autonomy in the future...

The original hardware 2.0 was upgraded to 2.5, then 3.0, and now 4.0 is on its way. Those who paid for that dream with MCU1 eventually had to pay for MCU2 for a smoother "experience". Thus, it's reasonable to speculate that it's not just software but also hardware too.

NTSB still warns that Tesla has not achieved "basic safety issues" which result in collisions and deaths while using its automation system.

Those companies that use LIDAR for example Waymo since 2009 with zero deaths especially since its driverless program with no human behind the wheels in Chandler, AZ since 2019.

My speculation is: It's hard to expect Tesla will be able to avoid collisions and deaths any time soon. If it wants to do that in any foreseeable future, it would have to add LIDAR.

Are there any current or near term competitors selling a car or planning to sell a car, under $75,000, with a similar promise to Tesla's?

No. None. It's a Tesla market monopoly.

Waymo is the closest to driverless but it's commercial fleet and not for personal purchase. It has perfected in achieving collision avoidance as a robotic task but driving is more than just that, it still needs the intelligence that I think we will have to wait a long time.

So, while waiting for the "intelligence" part to mature, Waymo is partnering with shipping companies that have unchangeable routes, depots (robotic, repeatable tasks that do not need much "intelligence").

 

[Daniel in SD]

So if they achieve it for pre-March 2019 cars, why wouldn't they have achieved it for post-March 2019 cars?

Of course, but if they don't achieve it with your pre-March 2019 car you might be entitled to a refund or a hardware upgrade.
The question asked by OP was about promises. If promises are important to you then you should definitely buy a pre-March 2019 car.