Remember that the factory was originally built by GM in 1962, then refurbished by Toyota and GM in 1984 and then again by Tesla a couple years ago. Not sure how resistant it is, but it's definitely sitting in one of the places most likely to have a major earthquake in the next 30 years. The odds of it happening this year are slim ;-)
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If Tesla Company Ever Closes, Will There Be Support For Us Buyers?
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I believe that Tesla is out of the woods now, and that their growth is only going to accelerate from here on out.
One day they will be a large auto company like Toyota.
I do think Elon Musk will eventually leave the company at some point and possibly sell a large chunk of his stock in order to fund his future aspirations and dreams of funding a serious mission to Mars, but that will be long after gen 3 and EVs are everywhere (and Telsa will have a long life post-Elon.)
If for some freak reason they did go under early, I would think the Model S would retain a lot of value as it would be a rare and very desirable car to own.
One day they will be a large auto company like Toyota.
I do think Elon Musk will eventually leave the company at some point and possibly sell a large chunk of his stock in order to fund his future aspirations and dreams of funding a serious mission to Mars, but that will be long after gen 3 and EVs are everywhere (and Telsa will have a long life post-Elon.)
If for some freak reason they did go under early, I would think the Model S would retain a lot of value as it would be a rare and very desirable car to own.
As a resident of Fremont I think they'll probably be OK if the Hayward fault goes. The building is steel construction though the Hayward fault is not too far away from the factory. My house is closer, about 400 feet from the fault line. For many years Fremont has had some of the strictest code enforcement of any city in the country.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
I didn't know about this earthquake matter. If there is a risk of earthquake wouldn't it be better to build another factory somewhere else? I think that Tesla needs another factory anyway since Model S production is ramping up and Model X and Gen III production is getting closer.
Of course I am sorry for California people living close to the Hayward Creek and I hope that the earthquake will never take place.
Of course I am sorry for California people living close to the Hayward Creek and I hope that the earthquake will never take place.
Even if wildly successful Tesla won't 'need' another factory for a while: they're only using between 10%-20% of the space in NUMMI now.
When I ordered my Roadster in October of 2009 I was concerned about the possibility TM wouldn't survive long enough to deliver me a car. I limited my exposure by ordering the base model with minimal options, but I paid for the car before they built it and I also put down a deposit for a Model S, so the exposure was considerable. Two years later when I upgraded my reservation to a Signature, it never occurred to me to question whether the company would be able to deliver my car, though in hindsight I probably should have been more worried. They're still in a fragile state, where a major trauma (like an earthquake; or a big recall, with lawsuits) could bankrupt them, but I am optimistic. Bringing a disruptive technology to market is risky; I choose to live with the risk to be part of the revolution.
When I ordered my Roadster in October of 2009 I was concerned about the possibility TM wouldn't survive long enough to deliver me a car. I limited my exposure by ordering the base model with minimal options, but I paid for the car before they built it and I also put down a deposit for a Model S, so the exposure was considerable. Two years later when I upgraded my reservation to a Signature, it never occurred to me to question whether the company would be able to deliver my car, though in hindsight I probably should have been more worried. They're still in a fragile state, where a major trauma (like an earthquake; or a big recall, with lawsuits) could bankrupt them, but I am optimistic. Bringing a disruptive technology to market is risky; I choose to live with the risk to be part of the revolution.
Not too long ago could they build car then could they get financing. Now concern about earthquake. How times change
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
I agree with you. Any change needs a little bit of risk. But I think that Tesla will be successful.
Although your question is a very legitimate one, I have to ask: are you a buyer (as your refer to 'us buyers')?
Because if you are a buyer this next question doesn't really make sense:
Owner
Active Member
Ironically building destruction has little to do with distance from the actual fault unless you are straddling it. It has a lot more to do with quality of construction, and 1962 era should be fine as things were built with earthquakes in mind during that time already.
The other salient factor is landfill and general soil stability. Most of the 1989 earthquake damage occurred where parts of the bay are filled in - San Francisco Marina district, Foster City etc...
Here is a soil map:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/soiltype/map/
I can't pinpoint the factory exactly but it could be weak soils.
The other salient factor is landfill and general soil stability. Most of the 1989 earthquake damage occurred where parts of the bay are filled in - San Francisco Marina district, Foster City etc...
Here is a soil map:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/soiltype/map/
I can't pinpoint the factory exactly but it could be weak soils.
A significant earthquake would take the factory offline for a while, even if it didn't damage the building. Even assuming power interruptions were limited, there will likely be some equipment damage, and things that require high precision will probably be thrown out of alignment. Transportation to/from the factory could be disrupted, and employees may be in recovery mode and/or not able to get to the plant. Nothing that can't be handled, or that would put the company out of business, but definitely a disruption.
In any case, I sincerely doubt that Tesla would "go out of business" at this point. It's simply too valuable. If they don't make it, then another automaker will pick them up and carry on.
In any case, I sincerely doubt that Tesla would "go out of business" at this point. It's simply too valuable. If they don't make it, then another automaker will pick them up and carry on.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I looked at both the USGS map and the location of the Tesla Factory on Google maps.
The Tesla Factory is located East of Rt. 880 (also labeled as Nimitz Freeway on Google maps), and West of Rt. 680 (Sinclair Freeway). 680 runs nearly parallel to 880, and the two parallel freeways are visible features on the USGS map. Viewing the Google map and the USGS map side-by-side, and tracing the common road features by eye, it appears to me that the Tesla Factory is right on the edge of the "green" colored zone on the map.
On the Google Map and the USGS map, you can find a "triangle" formed by 3 roads: Fremont Blvd, S. Grimmer Blvd (nearly 90 degree angle w' Fremont Blvd), and Old Warm Springs Blvd. South to Southeast of this triangle is where the factory buildings are located. Based on the satellite images, the buildings should be built on the "green" area, while the west parking lot is on a "yellow" area. The green area is classified as NEHRP C according to the map legend. NEHRP C is "Very dense soil and soft rock". This makes me a bit more confident that the Factory is on solid ground, rather than the "pink/red" or "yellow" stuff that looks a bit dangerous. Edit: See http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/soiltype/ for a detailed writeup on NEHRP classifications. In a big earthquake scenario, I think the Factory would probably be ok, but I'm not sure about the surrounding infrastructure. For that reason, I think any major quake would cause production to halt for some amount of time.
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Owner
Active Member
My guess it isn't landfill.
Silly side note:
Anticitizen13.7, you must be from southern California or elsewhere. Us Northerners call our freeways by the numbers not the names. It is 880. Not Rt.880 or whomever it is called by. I actually didn't know 680 was named after Sinclair. Wonder who he was? Actually you probably are not from LA because I think they would say "the 880".
Silly side note:
Anticitizen13.7, you must be from southern California or elsewhere. Us Northerners call our freeways by the numbers not the names. It is 880. Not Rt.880 or whomever it is called by. I actually didn't know 680 was named after Sinclair. Wonder who he was? Actually you probably are not from LA because I think they would say "the 880".
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