Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[Convert2013]

In one of the interviews that Elon gave in the past two weeks he mentioned that he thinks Tesla's stock is higher than is deserved today (is pricing in more than what Tesla is able to do today) and he is going to work very hard to exceed the current expectations. He also said that he thinks the stock will be significantly higher in the future. Anyone else catch this? I'll try to find a link to the interview.

Yes most of us caught that. One of the Europe interviews. The guy is basically giving away money to investors. What a (awesome) dude.

 

[Zzzz...]

In one of the interviews that Elon gave in the past two weeks he mentioned that he thinks Tesla's stock is higher than is deserved today (is pricing in more than what Tesla is able to do today) and he is going to work very hard to exceed the current expectations. He also said that he thinks the stock will be significantly higher in the future. Anyone else catch this? I'll try to find a link to the interview.

On Aug 21 he was saying that market gives Tesla much higher valuation than Tesla currently deserves... Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Even Elon Musk Thinks Tesla Stock Is Overpriced - Seeking Alpha

The TSLA price was essentially same as today, ~$161.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

In one of the European interviews Elon gave in the past two weeks, he expanded on that comment, and said he thinks Tesla will be deserving of a much higher price in the future.

I don't think Elon has said much in the way of "new information," aside from the information about the Supercharge Network, and European Demand. I do think he has provided numerous hints in the form of "subtle reminders" to those who have listened to his comments from the past year.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Saw on FB where TeslaMotors posted a picture of a Model S in front of Chioin temple in Kyoto with this text:

"This week, residents of Kyoto can experience the power and performance of the thoroughly 21st century Model S in the shadow of 12th century Chioin temple. With it's nearly silent powertrain and zero emissions, Model S is one of only a handful of vehicles allowed into Japan's delicate World Heritage sites."

This means test drive events in Japan are ongoing, hadn't seen this reported before so thought to share.

 

[DonPedro]

On Aug 21 he was saying that market gives Tesla much higher valuation than Tesla currently deserves... Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Even Elon Musk Thinks Tesla Stock Is Overpriced - Seeking Alpha

The TSLA price was essentially same as today, ~$161.

I still think that comment is more likely to be humility and hedging his own credibility against future stock price dips than a comment on valuation. If he believes the next sentence - that the stock price will rise in the future - he is basically saying that today's stock price is more than justified.

 

[RationalOptimist]

On Aug 21 he was saying that market gives Tesla much higher valuation than Tesla currently deserves... Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Even Elon Musk Thinks Tesla Stock Is Overpriced - Seeking Alpha

It's not actually what he said (even though it is what certain media, and mischievous shorts, have reported.) What he said was. "higher than we have any right to deserve." That's crucially different. If people think you're going to achieve miracles and they tell you that, that is certainly more than you have any right to deserve. But it may not be more than you actually do deserve. It all depends on whether you go ahead and achieve those miracles.

The reason many of us are long TSLA is that we believe Elon and team have already offered clear evidence that they are miracle workers. And that the best is yet to come.

 

[Norse]

Not quite sure which thread to put it to as it has short and long term impact, but it looks like a huge amount of orders went from sourcing parts to In Production and it doesn't seem to have any geographic preference or when people were originally in queue. I see in the delivery sequencing thread and November delivery thread that people who had delivery targets in end of November and in December got to In Production yesterday. People in EU with January delivery dates got to in Production and so did my order. Yet two weeks ago Tesla told me that they expect my car to enter production end of December.

I have no clue what this means, the most obvious explanation is a software glitch that changed everyones status to In Production (that'd be a bummer) or that Tesla decided to favor TMC members and pulled a lot of people forward. Then again the other MS order in Estonia (an S60) also went into production as I found out last night over e-mail and he's not frequenting the forum. If this is really true, then it might indicate a serious rampup in November in production that might be gearing for a great end of year production rush. If indeed my car enters production now, then I will get it this year still and this would affect Q4 numbers a lot. As Q4 guidance is part of the Q3 ER, then this tidbit might be of interest. I guess we'll have to wait until one of us lucky upgrades gets through to Tesla to confirm that the car is INDEED in production until we all start celebrating, but if this really happened, then it may well mean that Tesla has solved supply issues to large part and can ramp up the production fast enough that they are pulling Dec-Jan deliveries forward.

Most of the guys at the local Tesla Branch in Bergen also got their car in production this weekend. One of them got it just now. If it was a software bug I bet they would have fixed it on friday?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Well I got through to Tesla today to the regular guy who has been keeping tabs on my order. The In Production change is for real, it means that my cars components have now all been sourced and reserved and it's waiting in the production sequencing queue to enter actual production. What this seems to mean is that some supplier issue was resolved and a lot of cars got their parts sourced and assigned and now it's just the batching and queueing on the factory floor that determines when the car is finished. He still gave me a January 2014 delivery estimate, but considering the car is waiting to enter assembly and that takes 3-5 days add to it shipping for 45 days (that's what he said) and a week at Tilburg we're looking at two months and in two months it's January. So any EU order that changed to production now is likely to be delivered in January.

So we might see a ramp up in production indeed if the supplier issue got solved (which would explain why such a huge number of orders went into production meaning pre-production when all parts are available and reserved for that particular car).

 

[marvinat0rz]

Most of the guys at the local Tesla Branch in Bergen also got their car in production this weekend. One of them got it just now. If it was a software bug I bet they would have fixed it on friday?

It's very likely, as others have said, that what actually has happened is that some last supply bottleneck has been resolved. Which is very good news All evidence thus far (including yours) points to this.

 

[tslafan123]

Model X will ONLY be dual-motor AWD

http://green.autoblog.com/2013/11/04/tesla-model-x-will-be-awd-only-cost-more-than-model-s/

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Well the street is taking this TeslaMotors tweet as an indication of production ramp-up. Should we?

Tesla Motors ‏@TeslaMotors2h
Monday #Mythbusters - MYTH: It takes 6 months to deliver a Model S when ordered. FACT: You can receive your Model S in as little as 4 weeks!

 

[DonPedro]

Well the street is taking this TeslaMotors tweet as an indication of production ramp-up. Should we?

...or demand shortfall? ;-)

I vote for ramp-up.

 

[30seconds]

How about prioritizing P85/ P85+ orders? I assumed that this actually didn't signify anything

 

[sub]

How about prioritizing P85/ P85+ orders? I assumed that this actually didn't signify anything

Exactly, this was pointed out by someone on SA. I didn't verify, but they pointed out the website says you can get a P85 in 4 weeks, nothing new. If they said you can get any model S in 4 weeks, that is different. Demand is a non issue, moving on.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Well that's all still only if you live in the US Ordering in EU DOES have 6 month wait time even for a fully loaded P85+

 

[sub]

Well that's all still only if you live in the US Ordering in EU DOES have 6 month wait time even for a fully loaded P85+

My bad, didn't mean to pour salt in the wound.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

My bad, didn't mean to pour salt in the wound.

Well if I get lucky and get January delivery then I at least will get it in 4 months, but right now the website does say 5-6 months... Anyway I have to agree that this probably isn't anything but simple marketing and no implications on production increases, which are more likely indicated by the huge In Production move starting of November.

 

[sub]

Not sure I would sign a new long term battery deal for a bazillion batteries if orders were going down. Now, assuming Elon is smarter than I am (stretching here), I doubt he would do it either.

 

[Matthias Buhl]

On his recent trip to Germany Elon stated that Germany is the most important market for Tesla after the US. Yet he also says that Germany needs to ramp up EV incentives in Order for demand to lift up.

I'd like to give my thouhts on that since I live in Germany and love to here back from you Investors and Fans.
1. Ther will be no incetives for EVs unless Mr. Winterkorn (CEO of Volkswagen) calls Angela Merkel and asks for it. As you all know Germany completely missed the transition in technologie from ICE to EV that clearly will take place in the future and therefore has no competetive EV Models out there. Therfore I think we have to wait quite a while before Mr. Winterkorn makes the call i mentioned above.
2. What is Teslas / Elons plan to tackle the missing incentives. Is he going to sacrifice margins in order to make prices more competitive?
3. You may think that prices are copetitive when you take the EU Prices from websites in Germany of an Audi A8/A7/A5, BMW 7/6/5 oder Mercedes S/E-Class. But I can assure you these prices are unlike the prices from Teslas website pure fantasy. Most new cars in that category are bougt as busniess cars. I'm getting an new A5 for example fully loaded with a Diesel as a financial consultant for as much as 30% of the price thats on Audis websites. The first 20% I didn't even have to bargin for the other 10% I made by competing dealers. With Mercedes and BMW I would easily get around 20% aswell. To be clear that is typical in Germany.

Just to make sure you get me right. I'm 100% sure about the future of EVs I'm just not so sure If demand in Germany can ramp up as fast as Tesla hopes it will. Love to hear you're thougts on it.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

I think Tesla targets 10k sale rate by end of 2014. And I think the free supercharger access in combination with the car being really excellent will convince enough germans to go for the car. Remember, they only need to sell ~200 per week, which is a drop in the sea in general sales including in the luxury sector. I think Porsche should be worried for the Panamera because even with 30% off it's still more expensive than the P85+ yet can't really decently compete on performance or capacity aspects of it. And I think Tesla being still somewhat a rare car will bring enough people to it from that point in the start as well.

Also, Germans managed to install shitloads of solar panels, I think a number of those people would love to have an EV that they charge from their own solar panels. So overall I don't think demand is a real issue, at least not in the short term and for long term Tesla is investing hard to make long term more lucrative