Model 3 purchased 2 weeks ago vs now, HW upgrade?

[moonchic73]

Pretty miffed that we bought our Model 3 and just a week after delivery see the announcement...especially considering the fact you can now get a long range for the same price we paid for a mid-range.

Anyway,

We didn't purchase EAP and FSD wasn't an option on the site when we ordered, but currently trialing EAP for a month.

Will cars purchased 2 weeks ago be able to upgrade to FSD even if we didn't purchase EAP? Any guesstimates as to how much it would cost later on? I've been reading that it requires a new chip, but wanted to see if anyone on here knows more details or has better speculations.

Thanks!

 

[moonchic73]

Also, the car they delivered to us was manufactured in December so I know it doesn't have HW 3.0. Just wondering if I can get that later.

 

[niray9]

Exactly same situation for us. Miffed.

 

[Matt L]

Pretty miffed that we bought our Model 3 and just a week after delivery see the announcement...especially considering the fact you can now get a long range for the same price we paid for a mid-range.

Anyway,

We didn't purchase EAP and FSD wasn't an option on the site when we ordered, but currently trialing EAP for a month.

Will cars purchased 2 weeks ago be able to upgrade to FSD even if we didn't purchase EAP? Any guesstimates as to how much it would cost later on? I've been reading that it requires a new chip, but wanted to see if anyone on here knows more details or has better speculations.

Thanks!

I’ve not seen confirmation that 3.0 is actually being delivered.

Once live, You should be able to go into your account and purchase those packages.

 

[Byeehaaw]

Does HW 3.0 only matter for future FSD? From my understanding you'll get the upgrade for free if you buy FSD. I've been on the cusp of reordering (cancelled last nov), before the prices go up next week. I will eventually buy FSD if it ever gets passed, but for now don't want to shell out 5k for only the EAP features. I'm trying to weigh the benefits of waiting til HW 3 comes standard vs just jumping on 2.5. So far from what I can tell, there really isn't if you are not on FSD. Any thoughts?

 

[Knightshade]

Does HW 3.0 only matter for future FSD?

Correct.

D
From my understanding you'll get the upgrade for free if you buy FSD.

Also correct.

 

[dww12]

If you received your M3 two weeks ago and did not get EAP for $5k, you can now get AP for $2k and FSD for $3k, which gets you HW3. AP + FSD is $8k for new cars right now, so if you were considering AP at all you are getting a better deal by several $k compared to a new car. If you did not ever want either or if you had alredy paid for EAP+FSD then yes that sucks.

 

[Moze1021]

Does HW 3.0 only matter for future FSD?

Correct.

Are you 100% sure about that??

Isn't there a possibility that HW 3.0 could incrementally improve safety and autopilot accuracy/performance?

 

[Knightshade]

Are you 100% sure about that??

I'm 100% Elon explicitly stated this. I suppose he might have been lying but there's no evidence of it so far.

A
Isn't there a possibility that HW 3.0 could incrementally improve safety and autopilot accuracy/performance?

AP as it exists today? Not really. It's just TACC and autosteer, which HW2.5 is more than capable of.

EAP that they used to sell? It certainly COULD- but then that's probably why all those extra features got moved into the FSD pool- because they know they'll only be able to improve them significantly if you have HW3, which you get with an FSD purchase.

Any buyers who wait for HW3 can't ever get EAP anyway so that's a non-issue there.


So in short:

HW2.x folks who never buy FSD- what you've got is pretty much it either AP or EAP (other than a better version of summon coming to EAP owners) and don't expect any new features or significant improvements.

HW2.x folks who do buy FSD- will get HW3 free, and both significant performance improvements and new features over time.

HW3 folks (future cars not yet delivered) who do not buy FSD- Same as the HW2.x folks with AP (not EAP)- it really doesn't take much computing power for just TACC and autosteer.

HW3 folks (future cars not yet delivered) who do buy FSD- Same as the HW2.x folks with FSD just you don't need the free 30 minute computer swap first.


Oh, and of course, HW1.x folks- you've been done for a while.

 

[Moze1021]

Hmm.. OK...

I haven't taken delivery yet... so I don't have first hand experience other than the 5 miles or so I drove in my buddy's M3 about a month ago..

He doesn't have AP or FSD or the old EAP.... but I did like how all the surrounding traffic showed up on the screen. I guess I would have assumed that a hardware upgrade could perhaps increase the accuracy of that information for TACC, autosteer, blind spot warnings, etc...

 

[BestRadar]

If anyone thinks that they will get all new hardware for purchasing FSD you better get it in writing because past experience would suggest otherwise. Remember they dumbed down FSD capability now so theoretically what is now promised can be done with existing hardware.

 

[Knightshade]

If anyone thinks that they will get all new hardware for purchasing FSD you better get it in writing

We have. Like 10 different times now, as recently as today directly from Elon Musk.

Some people just refuse to take yes for an answer though.[/QUOTE]

 

[BestRadar]

We have. Like 10 different times now, as recently as today directly from Elon Musk.

Some people just refuse to take yes for an answer though.

[/QUOTE]

I will laugh next year when everyone is complaining they did not get hardware upgrades and they point to a tweet.

 

[Knightshade]

I will laugh next year when everyone is complaining they did not get hardware upgrades and they point to a tweet.

No worries, everyone else is already laughing at people who refuse to take yes for an answer

 

[favo]

As others have said, if you buy FSD now (or already have), you'll get HW3 (the chip Tesla designed specifically to accelerate neural network processing at 10x the speed of the current AP chip) when it's available. That should be this year. Back in October, Elon tweeted about "6 months before it is in all new production cars. No change to sensors."

Last year, Pete Bannon, Tesla’s chip architect in charge of the project, said that they were ramping up their manufacturing effort and aiming to start production of the Autopilot Hardware 3 computer around the end of the first quarter of 2019.

See Tesla is starting to push software to work with new Autopilot Hardware 3 for some details.

I think HW3 will receive new features/capabilities that HW 2.5 and earlier will never get--and not just the FSD ones. It may be subtle at first, with improved neural nets only running on HW3 resulting in fewer cases of phantom braking, aborted lane changes, and other aberrant behavior, etc. It will probably be better at merging and evaluating surrounding traffic as well.

There is also this monster thread with some details and lots of speculation.

 

[favo]

I will laugh next year when everyone is complaining they did not get hardware upgrades and they point to a tweet.

From the 2018 Q3 earnings call:

[It’s] very important to emphasize that the only thing that needs to change between a car that’s produced today and a car that’s going to be produced in the second quarter of next year is probably the autopilot computer. This is a simply change that takes about half an hour to upgrade the computer. Anyone will be able to upgrade their car to Full Self-Driving capability with a simple service visit. Basically anything made in the last two years will be upgradable to Full Self-Driving. So its better important to emphasize that there’s no need to wait until that comes out because its just a very simple plug and play change to get to Full Self-Driving. Anyone who has paid for Full Self-Driving option will get it done for free. It really ends up being a discount on future capability.

The team is incredibly excited about the upcoming upgrade for the Autopilot computer. This upgrade allows us to not just run the current neural networks faster, but more importantly, it would allow us to deploy much larger computational and more expansive networks to the fleet. The reason this is important is that it is a common finding in the industry that as you make the networks bigger, the accuracy of their prediction increases with the added capacity. Now we’re currently at a place where we’ve trained large networks that work very well, but are not able to deploy them to the fleet due to computational constraints. So all of these will change with the next iteration of the hardware, and it’s a massive step improvement in computing capability, and the team is incredibly excited to get these networks out there.

 

[BestRadar]

From the 2018 Q3 earnings call:

I would still bet that no one will ever see these hardware upgrades.

 

[Knightshade]

I would still bet that no one will ever see these hardware upgrades.

Please, please, please invite me to your next poker game.

 

[BestRadar]

Please, please, please invite me to your next poker game.

I bought my FSD in 10/2016 been promised it was coming for over 2 years now. in 7 months it will be 3 years. At that point when I don't see it I will sell my car and demand a refund.

 

[OCR1]

Is there anyone else on this forum besides Knightshade who believes that with 100% certainty if they purchase the $2K FSD upgrade being offered today through the Tesla website, they will definitely get the upgraded HW3 chip, parts and labor to install, completely free from Tesla, no ifs ands or buts? No wiggle room to claim they offered a watered down FSD that works with V2.5...just complete absolute certainty that for $2K they get the hardware, installation, and future software updates, period.