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  1. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Are you doing that thing where you're pretending the huge multi-billion tax valuation in Q4 isn't a one-off that should be backed out when computing PE?
  2. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just for context though- he has roughly 0.75% of outstanding shares. I mean that's obviously a lot for an individual, but it's not like he's gonna sway the vote either way unless it's darn close to a tie.
  3. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No, the car never learns on-car (it'd be a nightmare of troubleshooting if it did). The NNs only change with full firmware updates. But MAP data is updated all the time- including on a per-route basis each time you enter a destination.
  4. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    As already noted Canada also requires cars actually obey the law. Stopping at the stop sign isn't the issue- it's the fact side visibility from the B-pillar is poor so it needs to creep up and stop to judge if it's safe to turn if there's any obscurations. Humans, already sitting forward of B...
  5. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    HW4 3/Y don't have radar at all. All of them are missing any camera that covers the front blind spots of the car (except maybe the cybertruck)- though how relevant that is for RTs versus cars that are parked/off for significant periods remains to be seen. All of them might be missing cameras...
  6. Knightshade

    Model 3 Highland Performance/Plaid Speculation

    I've also seen 2 videos "showing" it. I've never seen any calibrated device measurements showing it though.... The NEAREST we get to evidence, and it's CRAZY slight, is in my spreadsheet that was just cited a couple posts ago... P is still 0.04 quicker 50 to 60....But to get from the 1/8th...
  7. Knightshade

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    What functionality, specifically, was delivered by removing the beta tag? Because that's all that matters here-- revenue is deferred when a customer pays for things and you have not delivered them. You have to deliver something specific to recognize the revenue. So they CAN recognize deferred...
  8. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Or you could move someplace or change jobs to ditch the 2 hour round trip. Also folks making the amount you're talking about aren't usually paid by the hour by their companies, they're salaried or OT exempt. Also FSD is L2 so they can't do any of that stuff... and if it ever gets to L4 or L5...
  9. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No. Beta has no meaning whatsoever in terms of accounting. Just covered this in another thread a bit over an hour ago- including what chunks of revenue were deferred going into Q1, and what chunks may be unlocked this quarter and the one just ended, and which are likely to remain locked for a...
  10. Knightshade

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Anyone who bought FSD back in the day would've seen it if they read the fine print, where Tesla told us using FSD for ride sharing commercialy was only ok on the Tesla Network, details of which are coming next year, and have been since like 2017.
  11. Knightshade

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Why? Beta is not a term with any meaning in GAAP (or in the law either). Removing it doesn't permit any additional revenue recognition at all. The only deferred FSD money is from the following things: The pre March 2019 buyers who are owed L4 or better-- that's unrecognized and staying that...
  12. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    FWIW this varies by manager. I've worked for a fair # of very big tech companies and see managers who handle this as you suggest. I've also seen managers who pick the names of the employees most a threat to their own jobs in ways outside of them being bad employees (often the opposite) I've...
  13. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So you're misusing the system in a manner Tesla explicitly tells you is dangerous? Plus endangering you child while doing it. It's possible you've already reduced it too far. Legit I hope your post is trolling.
  14. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If that's the case I'd expect the take rate to get much much higher than it currently is. I think the free trial for everyone (in NA) was a very good move as a precursor to seeing just how many owners agree with you on it being 'worth it' right now or not. The reason to be dubious is they...
  15. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm torn on this. On the one hand it'd be very bullish because Tesla is finally admitting the 2016 config of cameras is insufficient for reliable >L2 operation and perhaps THIS TIME they actually know what IS needed. On the other it's a tacit admission of the by-then-6-million Teslas on the...
  16. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm honestly having some trouble make this use case make sense compared to just instacart-- which also saves me the time both ways and the time shopping for a fee that'd almost certainly be comparable, or less, than a round-trip RT ride (let alone cost of my time) IIRC Uber already has a...
  17. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Correct- and one of the recent reports was that he Y structural battery lines had been broken up and machines repurposed elsewhere (though it was one of those anonymous employee source things so YMMV)
  18. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    IIRC those cheap chinese EVs aren't that cheap outside of China (ie not even in the EU, where some chinese makers do sell-- and the EU is already talking about raising tariffs further)--- the US market already has considerable protectionism from that, to the point BYD said they're not entering...
  19. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Exactly that Because the alternative is hiring a massive # of people to manually charge cars. Though as I mention they might need to anyway to keep the interiors cleaned out regularly. Then they'd also need some kind of shelter/booth for that person to remain on-site all shift in bad...
  20. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No. Look into just how long it took for any of those things to go from "exists" to "mandated by law" It's generally measured in decades. It was 78 years for seatbelts.
  21. Knightshade

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    It is accurate according to the court- regardless of ones personal opinions on the matter. It was that the voters weren't informed accurately about the independence (or not) of the board- presumably this would resolve THAT aspect of the case- unclear if that's sufficient to survive future...
  22. Knightshade

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Is there a citation for this?
  23. Knightshade

    Model 3 Highland Performance/Plaid Speculation

    FWIW I agree with you- but dark horse thought- They're not selling boost on the LR because they want the new, slower, P to still look good :) (again, I don't think this is true, but it did pop into my head and is kinda funny... more likely I'd guess boost will be a revenue stream they open up...
  24. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Probably for the same reason certain people keep using the name Model 2 despite Elon himself explicitly saying they wouldn't be making a car with that name. They seemed pretty clear on the last earnings call that all the low-hanging fruit to reduce costs on existing models had been picked...
  25. Knightshade

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    That's prob why they include the semi-threat of "if we have to pay him NEW money it'll be tens of billions more expensive"-- though that'd ALSO require a vote I imagine so it's...not that great a threat maybe? Personally I'm more concerned about the Delaware->Texas thing.... Texas corporate...
  26. Knightshade

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    You might wanna read this story about Elon and the Twitter Sacramento data center move before you put much stock in his "meaningful data center experience"...
  27. Knightshade

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Also wasn't ASS and banish supposed to arrive THIS month?
  28. Knightshade

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    Sorry I thought you were talking about lifespan from start of MCU2, not the end of it
  29. Knightshade

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    TBF, MCU 2 is from 2017 (introduced in the Model 3), so quite a bit more than 3 years old. But yeah really weird they didn't think of retrofit in designing MCU3- nice revenue opportunity lost.
  30. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    How about any of them? Like for the 4th time asking you to tell me what US state you think you can legally deploy an RT without J3016 compliance? You literally did my dude. Yeah, there legally is though. You CAN NOT put a robotaxi on the road, even with a human in it, without those...
  31. Knightshade

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    AMD not being upgradable to in previous cars (like MCU1->2 was) looking like it'll increasingly create a 2-class situation for updates.
  32. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Your system must comply with J3016 because the law says it must. I'm not sure "Compliance is because the law says so, not because SAE says so" is a useful distinction. I can assure you I've read it more thoroughly than the two folks (not you) trying to debate it with me :) In fact I've...
  33. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It does if you understand it. First, OEDR complete is more than just "avoid objects on the road" It's also "know how to react to a stopped school bus, including in context of the sign being out or not, and if the road is divided or not." It's also "understanding any non-standard speed sign"...
  34. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    While I agree with that, you still have the order of operations wrong. You don't put an L2 system on the road with a safety driver and hope "training makes it L4" That's not what L4 is. L4 requires specific features and capabilities FSD currently does not have- I've called them out...
  35. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I've score you 50/50 for that one--- though I think a title of "Senior Manager of Cathode Materials & Manufacturing" at a company like Tesla might be above middle.... That said- a director is absolutely an executive at every major corp I've worked for and as commonly used in the US...
  36. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That is not correct. Florida specifically requires meeting numerous, specific, requirements for a self driving system, all of which use the definitions and terms taken from J3016. FL law here: https://flsenate.gov/Laws/Statutes/2021/316.003 Read down to section 3- Automated driving system...
  37. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Seems relevant to the routine dusting-off of low performers vs the significant overhaul of company discussion
  38. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Can you cite any large company that's been around more than a couple years that has never done a company-wide round of layoffs? Or are you just a better manager than everyone who ever ran a large company? I think human safety driver would be a weird walkback of years of his describing how...
  39. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ok, so far so good... because yes what I'm writing is current reality in law. I suppose that depends how you define "rapid"? J3016 has been updated every 2-3 years for at least a decade now. But the revisions tend not to be wholesale re-writes...and the things we are talking about (OEDR, DDT...
  40. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In what US city do you believe it's legal to deploy a driverless car that doesn't meet the J3016 definition of L4? Define "robotaxi testing" If you mean driverless- no, I won't. Because that's not legally possible unless there's some SUPER SECRET version containing multiple, fundamental...
  41. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There's a pretty massive difference there. Nothing in existing law cared about your charging port in terms of if it was legal to deploy it or not. Self driving laws do You're making an apples and hand grenades comparison there. And they are. Enshrined in the self driving car laws of every...
  42. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I've given many. You simply refuse to learn enough about self driving laws and foundational definitions to understand them. I can explain it to you, I can't understand it for you. Notice too how when reminded of this you're moving goalposts from "they could start RT today" to "they could...
  43. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    We know the OEDR is incomplete simply by using it- and noting the many objects it either does not accurately (or at all) detect or react to. We know there's no DDT fallback system simply by using it- and noting the behavior when you don't show the car you're there to take over. We know there's...
  44. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So they start in a state that does not exist. Because as I noted every state I'm aware of that allows deployment of self driving cars requires compliance with J3016. Usually directly citing to the document in the law and using J3016 exact wording for their foundational definitions of things...
  45. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ok- but you are factually wrong about it- and seem adamant about not even understanding why. Because the literal law required J3016 compliance in every state that allows self driving in the US. Your complete dismissal of the requirements of actual law is... stunning. I don't think a court...
  46. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Trimming dead weight would be expected to hit nearly all departments... it's common for big companies to lay off the lowest X% performers across the board. One other correction- it was four executives who left on the same day... Amir Mirshahi, director of infrastructure at Tesla Gigafactory...
  47. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Since it's today an L2 system lacking at least 3 definitional things required for a driverless car-(a complete OEDR, a DDT fallback ability, and a defined L4 ODD) no, it's really not. Attempt number 398 to ask you to actually read and understand J3016 so you stop getting this so fundamentally...
  48. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Troy is pointing out EU sales have been roughly flat for 6 quarters in a row How many pinocchios does blaming two production interruptions in Q1 to explain that get- especially when inventory never got low enough for a week or two of lost production there to matter? That's great- but if the...
  49. Knightshade

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I started doing this on some shares that got put to me back around $230 as we broke below $200. The stock keeps dropping faster than I can sell 2x the calls this repair strategy calls for :)
  50. Knightshade

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I know you're Canadian, but it's spelled Riker Also the 3 engine enterprise was a refit of the D, not the E... and never ended up existing in the prime timeline since Picard changed it.... the E was a Sovereign class ship that Riker did not design, or even captain, and still only had 2 nacelles.