New X75D or used S P85+

[rohitgarewal]

****cross post, apologies in advance if that is frowned uppn***

As a baseline, this will be my dd / toy car. I only have a 2 mile commute, we have a Range Rover to haul the two kids, and we have a Porsche 993 / and an older CLK230 to get me around. This truly is just a first world problem that I'm trying to solve with an analytical, mind

What I'm looking for is advice on real world happiness ((including range and drive fun factor) between a new X and a CPO P85+. The plus is significant here, because I will appreciate the upgraded suspension and faster 0-60.

Also, I just REALLY want a Tesla . I have driven both the S and X, and love them both. I also have never kept a car longer than two years.

My choice is between a CPO 2014 P85+ for a price of $55K ($116 sticker) vs a base X for $87500 (auto pilot and seven seats). For me its just about total cost of ownership (TCO). I know cars depreciate, and I also know I don't keep them, so I only lease, or I buy used and sell with minimal depreciation. However, government incentives change the calculus a bit. When it comes to deciding between these two cars, I love the thought of the 7 seater, and after my wife's Range I love the higher ride height, but the fact is we will barely use the seven seats it because we have an SUV to haul the kids (when that lease runs out though, look out!). I will need to sell the Porsche to buy this car, so the S, specifically the updated suspension of the plus, really appeals to me. Apples to apples, I would already have bought the S for these reasons...

...but! I really want autopilot, so it is really what is autopilot worth to me, and which will give me more 'fun?'

When look at the costs, after taxes, the prices are:

$60K with transport and 4 year CPO warranty on the P85+ or
$86K including the $10K in incentives on the X.

Assuming 20K down, the monthly cost are
MS: $550
MX: $1010.
From a cash flow perspective significant.

Going back the other way though, I looked at what I can sell both cars for in 2 years (how long I will probably keep it), i.e. total cost of ownership (TCO). Looking at 2012 numbers for the S as reference (i.e. 6 years old), I imagine in 2020 I can sell

2014 S P85+: $35K-$40K
2018 X 75D: $60K - $65K

Net TCO of S: $20K-$25K
Net TCO of X: $12K-$15K

So while I will have to shell out more on a monthly basis, when I sell, the X may actually cost me less! Why do I think the X will 'only' drop by $12K-$15K? Well, it will actually drop by $25K (about 30%), but the govt is giving me $10K back. Also, once these incentives go away, unless Tesla drops the price of the cars significantly, I think AP2.5 cars will hold their value well. Also, I am getting minimal options, which is where the price really drops

What to do!?!?!?!

 

[AMPd]

The p85+ will be a lot more fun

So I say go with that!

 

[Zorg]

2 mile commute, I would ride my bike to work. If lazy/out if shape, get an ebike.

 

[AustinP]

What AMPd said.
I love the X but had it as a loaner for a day (100D) and this changed my mind from my driver perspective. For the cabin room comfort and kids point of view , the X wins.
I also had several S in D and P versions, I prefer the handling of the RWD.

Beware: you might end up buying both.

 

[paixim]

I have been thinking about exactly this issue myself in the last couple of week. One point I want to make is the selling price after two years of ownership seems very optimistic.

2014 S P85+: $35K-$40K
2018 X 75D: $60K - $65K

When I go through the calculation myself, I have considered the fact that model 3 will be readily available to general public in 2 years and possibly autopilot 3 hardware. Both will likely destroy the value of old cars

 

[rohitgarewal]

2 mile commute, I would ride my bike to work. If lazy/out if shape, get an ebike.

Ha! I agree. I'm in the gym 5 days a week and teach a part-time spin class, so staying active in my elderly age is definitely a priority

As I mentioned earlier, this is a toy

 

[rohitgarewal]

I have been thinking about exactly this issue myself in the last couple of week. One point I want to make is the selling price after two years of ownership seems very optimistic.

2014 S P85+: $35K-$40K
2018 X 75D: $60K - $65K

When I go through the calculation myself, I have considered the fact that model 3 will be readily available to general public in 2 years and possibly autopilot 3 hardware. Both will likely destroy the value of old cars

Very interesting. A quick look on autotrader and the lowest ive seen a car sell for (model S, 2013) was $39K, and it sold in a day.

 

[paixim]

Very interesting. A quick look on autotrader and the lowest ive seen a car sell for (model S, 2013) was $39K, and it sold in a day.

I believe a few high mileage CPOs have sold for high 20s. Keep in mind that these CPO also come with warranty and some money was spent to refurbished these units to make them presentable. I would imagine these cars have trade-in values at low 20s.

Also, autotrader listing price and the final sold price could be different.

I'm leaning towards leasing myself, even if I have to pay for extra mileage at the end. I'm estimating the private party sell price to be about 50% of MSRP - tax incentive after 3 years, so leasing is almost like free insurance on residual value.

 

[Zorg]

If TCO is the issue, get a regular S, possibly with AP1 as they hold their value better. If enjoyment is the issue get a P85.

 

[rohitgarewal]

I believe a few high mileage CPOs have sold for high 20s. Keep in mind that these CPO also come with warranty and some money was spent to refurbished these units to make them presentable. I would imagine these cars have trade-in values at low 20s.

Also, autotrader listing price and the final sold price could be different.

I'm leaning towards leasing myself, even if I have to pay for extra mileage at the end. I'm estimating the private party sell price to be about 50% of MSRP - tax incentive after 3 years, so leasing is almost like free insurance on residual value.

Interesting. I just started researching these cars this week so inventory must be low; the cheapest I’ve seen cars are in the 40’s, but that’s for s60s. Regular 85s with high mileage in the low 50s, and 2013/2-14 P85s high 50s/low 60s.

I’m with you on 50% depreciation after three years, but only on high option cars. Low option cars, as always, depreciate less. The cheapest X on autotrader right now is a guy selling a 2016 X75D, 6 seater, with ap1 for 68k, but it’s not moving. I told him I would buy it for 64, but he wouldn’t budge. The issue for him is that I can buy a new 75 with incentives for 77.5K.

Another example is a high option 2016 p90d with a sticker of 146, he was trying to sell for 110. I showed his exact car selling on the Tesla CPO site for 95. So, a 75 d has dropped 25k in two years (what I would have paid for it), and the high option one 45k, both about 30%.

I’m factoring a depreciation cost of 40% over 2 years so that I’m not surprised if I try to sell after 2 years.

 

[davidc18]

Love the window in the X.

 

[DIL]

First, separate out the kid hauler duty. We have a minivan for that. When I started considering X vs S, my wife - G-d bless her - told me “We will use the minivan for all the family stuff. Get something that you’ll enjoy driving.” So we have an MS in order, arriving (hopefully) in Feb. While I Love the X, it will never feel as sporty as the S. And more likely than not you’ll end up replacing the RR with an X anyway!

 

[ACExpress]

Based on your criteria, I think the S would be the play. I have AP2 on my uncorked ‘17 S75D, and I also have a short commute. The autopilot never gets used on the commute and only occasionally gets used on longer errands/trips. I may be in the minority, but it’s a little more of a party trick and cool but unnecessary feature to me.

The fact is I both enjoy driving the car and have trust issues with relinquishing control to the computers/sensors.

I love sitting up higher along with the windshield and better visibility in the X, but it’s not nearly as sexy as the S, in my opinion.

Bottom line: they’re both great cars, but I have zero regrets about choosing the S, even if they were the same price.