Non-performance second hand prices

[S777]

As someone who recently (Sep 2018) purchased a 75D Model S but has a real desire to get a Ludicrous Performance S after the recent price changes, I'm naturally quite interested in what impact has been felt on second hand prices. Obviously the P100DL took an absolute hammering in the second hand market overnight, but given the new standard range is looking an awful lot like a 75D and priced similarly, is there really much reason to believe the second hand prices of these will be hit all that hard?

Looking at tesla-info.com there doesn't appear to be all that much movement on already advertised cars, but without them selling it isn't really possible to gauge how much impact there has been on the prices buyers are actually paying.

It's also complicated, as ever with Tesla, by changes to the options. Mine has EAP which has no real direct comparison on a new model - it's either AP (@£2900) for less features, or AP+FSD (@ £7800!) for more. Meanwhile I can add FSD to my existing car for £1900, but it's not clear if a future purchaser of it could as well, or whether that would have to happen before sale to secure that price.

The cheapest inventory 75D with delivery mileage, is currently £73,458 with EAP and apparently pre-registered as a 68 plate, or perhaps even an 18 (less likely). This compares to £75,750 for a new standard range with AP. So, not exactly a huge discount given the recent plate change.

So do people think this is the calm before the storm in terms of second hand prices for relatively new Tesla's? Or things should carry on much as they always have done, which is pretty damn strong residual values all things considered.

 

[Peteski]

I think if you are trading up for a PL then you are going to be far better off in the overall cost to upgrade than before the recent price drop. But you are still going to take a serious hit selling any car that's only a few months old!

 

[WannabeOwner]

Obviously the P100DL took an absolute hammering in the second hand market overnight

I have no data, but I wonder if that is actually the case. No additional stock to satisfy the market ... just the price differential for new-buy is lower, so for anyone borderline who can, now, afford new has that option.

I had a look on Tesla Info (i.e. its price history pages) and some adverts did fall (£10K) early in March, but hard to tell if they were renewal of old adverts and "didn't sell, reduce price" reaction - might also be Invetory cars (I didn't check). Also plenty of prices that are flat since the car was put on sale (although if it was cheap enough it would have sold, right?, so "if has been advertised for several months must be priced too high" ... )

2017 5,000-10,000 P100D looks like it is still £90-95K

 

[Peteski]

I have no data, but I wonder if that is actually the case. No additional stock to satisfy the market ... just the price differential for new-buy is lower, so for anyone borderline who can, now, afford new has that option.

I had a look on Tesla Info (i.e. its price history pages) and some adverts did fall (£10K) early in March, but hard to tell if they were renewal of old adverts and "didn't sell, reduce price" reaction - might also be Invetory cars (I didn't check). Also plenty of prices that are flat since the car was put on sale (although if it was cheap enough it would have sold, right?, so "if has been advertised for several months must be priced too high" ... )

2017 5,000-10,000 P100D looks like it is still £90-95K

But you can now buy a brand new S PL with FSD for £93K or 7-seat X PL with FSD for £98k , so I don't think those 2 year old examples are going to sell somehow. I think they're going to take at least a £10k hit and probably somewhat more. If you strip out FSD and just go for AP (which I would do) then the 7-seat X PL is down just below £94k. No brainer over a used one.

 

[S777]

I think the second hand prices on p100dl cars have yet to fully settle given the massive disruption, but I do fundamentally agree that those prices should hold up incredibly well relative to the new purchase price. This is one of the reasons I'm using to justify to myself taking the hit to upgrade. A 3 year old ludicrous performance would be snapped up at 60k today (cheapest advertised seems to be well over 80k) ... Is that really going to be so different 3 years from now? That would represent incredible retained value against the current new price and would fully justify the swap if true.

 

[S777]

Put another way, a standard range today is broadly equivalent to a 75D in the second hand market.

Currently, all 2017 75D are up for sale at between 54k and 65k, representing ~25% depreciation over 2 years compared to current new price.

2017 P100Ds are currently for sale between £89k and £100k - basically, 0% depreciation against a Ludicrous P.

That latter situation can't last, but second hand prices are going to have to drop a lot further on the performance models to reach the sort of depreciation shown by the base models now. Where is that pressure really going to come from? Nothing of equivalent performance and running cost is remotely as cheap from any other manufacturers. On the performance side, a 3 year old 911 Turbo S was of comparable value to a 3 year old P100D a couple of weeks ago, but not now. Panamera Turbo of similar age much the same. That can only support second hand prices of the performance S models.

The situation with those other and other similar competitors isn't going to really change in the next few years. The only reason the second hand prices on the P100DL have dropped of course, is because it's absurd to have them more expensive than a new car. But beyond a small discount for buying used, they aren't going to fall massively below the new price because owners who paid 130k aren't going to sell just to buy basically the same car again from Tesla, and they aren't going to sell at a massive loss to switch to something from another manufacturer that costs a lot more and wasn't appealing to them in the past when they were the same price as the Tesla.

Probably the only thing to push those second hand prices down significantly in the next couple of years is a replacement Model S, and that will no doubt come at a fairly significant price bump to the current model.

 

[thegruf]

the main differential with *some* used ones is free tax and free for life supercharging.
These ones should hold their value exceptionally well as effectively they have all but zero running costs for a owner who uses supercharging most of the time.
New ones attract VED now, and supercharger prices are only likely to increase to fund the new gen chargers and more sites to cover the Model 3 and soon Model Y too.

Over an 8 year lifetime this could be worth a fortune to a savvy owner.

 

[Peteski]

Put another way, a standard range today is broadly equivalent to a 75D in the second hand market.

Currently, all 2017 75D are up for sale at between 54k and 65k, representing ~25% depreciation over 2 years compared to current new price.

2017 P100Ds are currently for sale between £89k and £100k - basically, 0% depreciation against a Ludicrous P.

That latter situation can't last, but second hand prices are going to have to drop a lot further on the performance models to reach the sort of depreciation shown by the base models now. Where is that pressure really going to come from? Nothing of equivalent performance and running cost is remotely as cheap from any other manufacturers. On the performance side, a 3 year old 911 Turbo S was of comparable value to a 3 year old P100D a couple of weeks ago, but not now. Panamera Turbo of similar age much the same. That can only support second hand prices of the performance S models.

The situation with those other and other similar competitors isn't going to really change in the next few years. The only reason the second hand prices on the P100DL have dropped of course, is because it's absurd to have them more expensive than a new car. But beyond a small discount for buying used, they aren't going to fall massively below the new price because owners who paid 130k aren't going to sell just to buy basically the same car again from Tesla, and they aren't going to sell at a massive loss to switch to something from another manufacturer that costs a lot more and wasn't appealing to them in the past when they were the same price as the Tesla.

Probably the only thing to push those second hand prices down significantly in the next couple of years is a replacement Model S, and that will no doubt come at a fairly significant price bump to the current model.

That's a lot of very speculative man maths! It would be wiser to presume depreciation in line with the industry norm i.e. basically worth 50% after 4 years 40k miles. I'm inclined to agree residuals may be stronger than average for those cars bought after the price drop, so maybe 55% if you are lucky. The number of P models sold relative to the standard models will be much higher than it was with the ridiculous price differential. P Models always had higher depreciation than the standard models before the price drop, but now I agree they will drop less. It's almost a no-brainer to find an extra £7k for the PL model now and I think that will show in the residuals. Those who have paid £130k recently are now going to lose out massively on resale. There's no getting away from that!

 

[IanMcL]

the main differential with *some* used ones is free tax and free for life supercharging.
These ones should hold their value exceptionally well as effectively they have all but zero running costs for a owner who uses supercharging most of the time.
New ones attract VED now, and supercharger prices are only likely to increase to fund the new gen chargers and more sites to cover the Model 3 and soon Model Y too.

Over an 8 year lifetime this could be worth a fortune to a savvy owner.

I purchased my 2016 S in December, for that very reason, plus autopilot, for my long journeys.

Have not spent a penny on electric until now, when my £8.95 per month for Polar plus kicks in. Still good value, though, until I have the Supercharger at Amesbury!

 

[tonyj01]

Good evening all,

This thread made me look into tesla-info.com and see how prices have adjusted, and I think that sellers have not lowered their prices -- yet.

I am an interested party, I have a pre-facelift 2016 MS90D, just had it's MoT, 34k miles [see image on the left]. Not planning to sell, but the prices listed must be unrealistic but as @thegruf said above, with long term no cost supercharging, my car must be a great buy for a high mileage driver who swaps from diesel to EV.

My reading shows me that most cars value after 3 years is around 50% of their new price, so far, with changes of the pound versus the dollar, UK second hand Teslas, and residual value way above this. I'm convinced mine is worth more than £40k [ie 50% of invoice price] but it must be less value than those listed presently on tesla-info.

In any case, I'm not selling yet, but interesting to see the market develop overall -- in 2020 or 2021, I hope I can return to leasing my next car, which will be an EV, with a great value lease contract.

All the best,


Tony

 

[Subevo]

Biggest problem is tesla don't seem to be interested in brand loyalty by giving a decent trade in for your tesla.pretty miserable to be honest.then they add a massive amount and resell it .there will a lot of dissatisfaction at trade in time.

 

[thegruf]

@Subevo - you are absolutely correct. Tesla have been offering appalling trade in; normally the dealer market works that you either get a good trade-in and low dicount on new or you get a low ball trade-in and a hefty discount off new. Either way the dealer keeps the car and re-sells if it is suitable for their used forecourt or passes it off to another dealer/auction house if not.

Tesla try to get it both ways, insulting trade-in price and not a penny off new; then the ones they do trade they try and sell sometimes it seems irrespective of condition. This has a number of negative effects, amongst which:

Good loyal customers not trading up to new due to insulting trade in prices (Tesla lose sales and damaged reputation)
Said customers then compelled to sell privately which can be a hassle that many dont want especially for valuable vehicles like these.
Shabby trade-ins being passed off uncorrected as manufacturer approved used/CPO - irritated used buyers being palmed of with unsatisfactory vehicles (Tesla damaged reputation)

Most all of us admire what Elon and Tesla are doing, but some of their sales and marketing antics just seem naiive and self-destructive in the extreme and simply end up with lost opportunity for Tesla and frustrated owners many of whom will look elswhere as competition (eventually) arrives when they could have been a safe bet for another Tesla. Sadly I can see myself amongst them at this rate.

 

[WannabeOwner]

This is one of the reasons I'm using to justify to myself taking the hit to upgrade

I'm inclined to agree residuals may be stronger than average for those cars bought after the price drop

Here's my roll of the dice:

New Model comes out in the Summer, back up at original price, Old model discontinued, anyone who bought during the short 3 month low-price window is laughing ...

My Crystal Ball is always half full though ...

a great buy for a high mileage driver who swaps from diesel to EV

I agree people will do that Man Maths, but it isn't really true IME ...

At E7 prices 30,000 miles a year is what? 800-quid for juice. Huge saving from Diesel ... but do ALL your charging Free at Supercharger?? you are having to sit there (I calculate 30,000 miles p.a. 100% at Supercharger is 3-4 hours a week ) ... probably save between 50% and, what?, just-maybe 90%? of 800-quid a year. That's just man-maths justifying the financing I reckon

I don't think free supercharging is worth much, other than psychologically

That said, I do tell all my mates "Of course I charge for free" ... TeslaFi says that around 10% of my total kWh are at Supercharger, so the 2-grand baked-in price lift I paid for my unlimited-Supercharging car is saving me 80-quid a year ...

 

[WannabeOwner]

Sadly I can see myself amongst them at this rate

yeah, I'm in the sat-on-fence-camp a bit too, but I'm not tempted by anything else.

Even Bjorn, making a video of his MX which had been in the 'shop for a couple of months waiting for parts (and not for the first time), and no loaner available for much of that time ... meantime he is having fun road-testing every other EV in production ... said he wouldn't change to anything else.

Unbelievable that the current crop is so mediocre. When Jag announced their EV, a couple of years back, I asked the question "why don't Jag just buy the Tesla bits and stick some beautiful coach-building on it" and the answer I got was "Pi$$ easy for manufacturers to get the bits fo EV and bolt them together".

Not-so-much it turns out ... now we can see the view properly it turns out that Tesla did an astonishing job, way-back-then.

I've still got a year or two to think up a credible excuse to Wifee for why she needs a Roadster as her daily driver.

 

[S777]

... And just for added fun in this conversation we have

Update on Tesla Stores and Pricing

 

[WannabeOwner]

hehehe ... I begin to wonder if all this is deliberate.

Jack up Supercharger prices massively
Everybody angry
Drop them back again half way(as originally intended)
Everybody happy

as opposed to:

Raise prices modestly
Everybody angry

So now we have:

Shut all stores and drop price of cars massively
Potential customers angry, Existing owners angry
Reduce closures by half, put up prices (as originally intended)
Noone thinks to complain ...

 

[Beady3647]

I've got a 65 P85D model s with about 33K miles on the clock. Thinking very seriously about upgrading to P100 with Ludicrous with a few extras at a total cost of around £93K.

I'm looking for a bit of advice of how to handle my trade in - I know I can ask Tesla for their figure, but are there any better options other than private sale?

 

[WannabeOwner]

total cost of around £93K

Until midnight tonight, as I understand it ...

 

[Beady3647]

Thanks for this info. Looks like I've got to make a decision in hours rather than a couple of weeks!

As far as part ex is concerned it is what it is and I suppose if I place the order and look for the best part ex in the meantime that's a pill I've got to swallow.

Probably going to order this afternoon online

 

[Beady3647]

Just tried to speak with Birmingham SC, but transferred to a dedicated sales person that turned out to be - an answerphone! All I wanted to confirm was whether or not prices would change at midnight tonight

Anyway, taken a flyer and placed my order, paid the £4K deposit - at least I now have a 7 day cooling off period with full refund if I do a U turn.

I'll probably pop into the SC tomorrow or Tuesday to see what they are prepared to offer, don't expect too much but at least it'll give me an idea.

Meanwhile if anybody has any suggestions of where else to try I'd be grateful