Washington State Vehicle and EV adoption - October 2023

[Poiu]

I thought I’d share some of the data from a project I have been working on to perform analysis of EV adoption (using Microsoft Power BI), especially with some recent media stories of EV adoption falling, EVs not selling, and Tesla losing market share. I was also inspired by the work from James Stephenson, who posts on X and YouTube.

I’ve initially used public datasets from Washington State. I've looked for comparable public datasets for the whole US and other states, but they are tough to find! Kudos to WA for making available an extensive number of datasets.

I plan on refreshing this in January when complete 2023 data is available and will try to take into consideration any feedback received.

Note: I've done my best to check the data, but this is an informal side-project - I may have made mistakes or misinterpreted the datasets. This is for general interest only! Feedback is welcome. Locations of other public datasets appreciated!

Electric Vehicle Population Data
This dataset lists both Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) currently registered in WA state as of end October 2023.

Question: How many EVs are currently registered in WA state?
Answer:

• Number of BEVs - 123,915
• Number of PHEVs - 35,191

Question: How has EV adoption grown?
Answer:

• The number of EVs registered each model year has generally increased with larger increases from the 2021 model year.
• 2023 is on track to be a record year – 66% increase in BEVs so far compared to the 2022 model year; 50% increase in PHEVs, but number of PHEVs are much smaller than BEVs.
• BEV adoption seems to be growing, not shrinking! At least in WA.
• Tesla BEV share compared to every other brand is currently down a couple of points so far in 2023 (57%) from 2022 (59%) – this could catch up by years end, but that’s not bad given the increased choice of vehicles in 2023.

Question: For BEVs, which make has the most vehicles?
Answer:

• Unsurprisingly, Tesla leads the way by a large margin! 72,274 vehicles, then Nissan next at 13,780 vehicles, with Chevy in third with 7,681 vehicles.
• Tesla’s make up 58% of all registered BEVs.

Question: What are the most popular EVs for the 2023 model year?
Answer:

• There are 22,102 Tesla’s for the 2023 model year (57%), with Chevy next at 2,283, and Hyundai third with 2,167.
• The Tesla Model Y is most popular, followed by the Tesla Model 3, then VW ID4. There are almost 9 times more MY’s than ID4’s so far for model year 2023.
• The least popular EV brands include Jaguar (5), Lucid (109), Toyota (178), Polestar (263).

Question: Which cities have the most BEVs?
Answer:

Vehicle Title Transactions
This dataset covers all vehicles, not just EVs, up to October 2023. I looked at the data for only new vehicle transactions for trucks, passenger cars, and multipurpose passenger vehicles (mainly SUVs and minivans). This data is used to assess ICE, hybrid, PHEV, and BEV adoption trends.

Question: How has market share of ICE, hybrid, and EV vehicles changed over time?
Answer:

• ICE share has significantly declined since 2017 with hybrids and BEV’s taking share. ICE has declined from 93% of vehicles registered in 2017 to 68% of vehicles registered so far in 2023.
• BEV (all battery) share has increased from 1.3% share in 2017 to 15.3% share so far in 2023.

Question: So far in 2023, which brands have sold the most cars and of what type?
Answer:

• It looks like Toyota easily leads the way in 2023 new vehicle sales with almost twice the number of second place Subaru (wow!) and Tesla in third. Not surprisingly Toyota sells a lot of hybrids!

Question: So far for calendar year 2023 title transactions, which models are the most popular?
Answer:

• The Tesla Model Y (13176) leads the Toyota Rav4 (10118), then the Honda CR-V (7722).

Question: What is the trend for new vehicle sales for the most popular makes?
Answer:

• There’s still November and December sales to add for 2023, but the trend is down or flat for most brands. Let’s see if Tesla can continue growth in 2024!

Question: What is the trend for new BEV sales for the most popular BEV makers?
Answer:

• Tesla is in a league of its own. Hopefully there will be the refreshed 3 early 2024. Will be interesting to see impact of Cybertruck.
• Chevy numbers for 2024 are going to be interesting - over 99% of sales are from the Bolt, which I believe is being discontinued at the end of 2023, with no date yet for when the new model will be available.
• I think Hyundai/Kia are producing a variety of compelling vehicles at different prices and will take increasing share. Getting more production in the US would help with a larger tax credit incentive.
• Was surprised by Polestar. I really like their current and upcoming models, but only 210 new vehicle titles in 2023 so far!

 

[Star K1tty]

This is great information, thanks for putting this together!

 

[EARL99208]

Very interesting information,,

Chalk upon more Tesla Model Y for Washington…I just purchased a 2021.

 

[whitex]

Very interesting information,,

Chalk upon more Tesla Model Y for Washington…I just purchased a 2021.

Unless you bought it from another state, it's already counted

 

[blue y]

Don't bump those numbers up too much this year, they'll act like the CCA was a success :-/.

 

[EARL99208]

Unless you bought it from another state, it's already counted

No idea where it was originally bought and registered.
It doesn't intrigue me enough to go pay for a Carfax to find out either.