Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[tivoboy]

Moderator note (to all): when posting a chart like this please explain a bit what we are looking at. I assume this circle is pointing out a resistance area where the stock ascent stopped, but it’s better if we don’t have to guess.

Not to mention there are no numbers or prices at all. ?

 

[juanmedina]

Think I need to take evasive action with the NVDA -p950's, they are seriously low on extrinsic... pain in the backside this NVDA has been, will look to get out of the whole thing now

How low are you thinking it will go? I have $820p's for this week.

 

[thenewguy1979]

How low are you thinking it will go? I have $820p's for this week.

Charts from Yoona. I think it also depend on CPI tomorrow.

 

[Yoona]

Charts from Yoona. I think it also depend on CPI tomorrow.

View attachment 1036988

NVDA is testing lower BB

 

[ProfessorZoom]

Moderator note (to all): when posting a chart like this please explain a bit what we are looking at. I assume this circle is pointing out a resistance area where the ascent stopped, but it’s better if we don’t have to guess.

It's a failed breakdown so it's a pattern that holds weight for future tests
Bear below bull above

 

[ProfessorZoom]

Not to mention there are no numbers or prices at all. ?

Sorry, I've been posting the same exact daily chart and gap for like a week or two now, I can explain it every time . I've just been playing this same exact thing

 

[Jim Holder]

@Max Plaid at what point would you consider selling new TSLA short puts, like perhaps 10/18/24 -P170 @20.00 or -P150 @12.00, or too risky right now and better wait for Q2/Q3 (might be too late then too...)?

 

[tivoboy]

NVDA is testing lower BB
View attachment 1036991
View attachment 1036992

I can tell you ALMOST for a fact that NVDA will go lower..

Want to know why? The ~ 5% of my assets that I let an RIA manage, well they just initiated an NVDA position at $883. And frankly, the only thing they have been good for is booking the only capital losses I have had in the past 10 years.

 

[tivoboy]

Sorry, I've been posting the same exact daily chart and gap for like a week or two now, I can explain it every time . I've just been playing this same exact thing

Maybe just zoom out a tad so SOME sort of price is indicated?
Otherwise, it’s really just noise or hyperbole.

 

[Yoona]

I can tell you ALMOST for a fact that NVDA will go lower..

Want to know why? The ~ 5% of my assets that I let an RIA manage, well they just initiated an NVDA position at $883. And frankly, the only thing they have been good for is booking the only capital losses I have had in the past 10 years.

possible 725 in 1 month if freefall doesn't stop

also:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777730778060964219

 

[Jim Holder]

GEX profile update

 

[Yoona]

tsla is bullish, supported by mid-BB

 

[tivoboy]

possible 725 in 1 month if freefall doesn't stop
View attachment 1036997

also:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777730778060964219

Frankly I (underscore I) wasn’t going to re-initiate any new positions in NVDA till it is a 7xx level… but I try not to micromanage third parties too much - but honestly, I don’t know why I bother.

 

[Jim Holder]

tsla is bullish, supported by mid-BB

View attachment 1037015

View attachment 1037006

View attachment 1037013

View attachment 1037014

Thank you for sharing these.

Looks like we remain in suspense/tread-water until first week of May where the puts let go for calls

Re this data chart, I see them on many services, how do we read it and what can we DO with the information that can inform our trading?

 

[Yoona]

Thank you for sharing these.

Looks like we remain in suspense/tread-water until first week of May where the puts let go for calls

Re this data chart, I see them on many services, how do we read it and what can we DO with the information that can inform our trading?

View attachment 1037018

unlike other services, this shows whether bets are bullish or bearish

if too far OTM, info is useless (is -c250 new or closing a previous +c250? impossible to tell)

i use it to guess approx range of closing price; from the pic, i know it will be 170-180 and won't be 200 so -c200 is probably safe

 

[Jim Holder]

unlike other services, this shows whether bets are bullish or bearish

if too far OTM, info is useless (is -c250 new or closing a previous +c250? impossible to tell)

i use it to guess approx range of closing price; from the pic, i know it will be 170-180 and won't be 200 so -c200 is probably safe

Thanks, that makes sense. So you filter out OTM and just keep NTM/ITM?

 

[Yoona]

Thanks, that makes sense. So you filter out OTM and just keep NTM/ITM?

no filter

the OTMs aren't that many anyway as seen on OI walls

 

[ProfessorZoom]

Maybe just zoom out a tad so SOME sort of price is indicated?
Otherwise, it’s really just noise or hyperbole.

The one time I miss the price axis in my crop my bad dude

 

[Jim Holder]

Tomorrow's CPI may bring extra volatility

March CPI Inflation Expectations:

1. Kalshi: 3.4%
2. Barclays: 3.4%
3. Citigroup: 3.4%
4. Deutsche Bank: 3.4%
5. Goldman Sachs: 3.4%
6. JP Morgan: 3.4%
7. Morgan Stanley: 3.4%
8. UBS: 3.4%
9. Bank of America: 3.3%

If CPI comes in at 3.4%, as most banks expect, it would mark the 3rd STRAIGHT monthly increase in inflation.

Median expectations show a 0.3% month-over-month increase in both Headline and Core CPI inflation.

(Credit: Kobeissi)

 

[tivoboy]

Tomorrow's CPI may bring extra volatility

March CPI Inflation Expectations:

1. Kalshi: 3.4%
2. Barclays: 3.4%
3. Citigroup: 3.4%
4. Deutsche Bank: 3.4%
5. Goldman Sachs: 3.4%
6. JP Morgan: 3.4%
7. Morgan Stanley: 3.4%
8. UBS: 3.4%
9. Bank of America: 3.3%

If CPI comes in at 3.4%, as most banks expect, it would mark the 3rd STRAIGHT monthly increase in inflation.

Median expectations show a 0.3% month-over-month increase in both Headline and Core CPI inflation.

(Credit: Kobeissi)

It’s almost certain to be higher, as energy has risen nicely the past 60 days.. and OER (owners equivalent rent) which they think will come DOWN, I actually think it will be UP.. so buckle up.