45thParallel
Member
I am in agreement with this thesis. It is 3 weeks since I ordered my Tesla, I still do not even see a month for an EDD. It can only mean, no one has any idea when production can start at Austin. It is also clear, Tesla does not want MYLR to be made at Freemont nor import from China. One can take solace that probably MYLR is the least profitable for Tesla and hence better value for money compared to MYP, X, S models!Who knows at this point. Something out of the ordinary is happening with recent orders. Back in May, average order to delivery was about 8 weeks or less. Several months later it is 3x as long at 24 weeks. Delivery delays increased by 3 months in 3 weeks. I'm thinking that they are stockpiling parts and slowing production at Fremont in anticipation of Austin opening. But at the same time, after looking at the most recent videos of the Austin factory, I don't think they are anywhere close to opening like Berlin is. There is zero HVAC installed in the building. A lot of the concrete slabs are not poured. The exterior walls are not finished. Even if they start limited production runs in late November or December, it's going to be LIMITED. It will be Q2 before they are cranking out MYs at Austin. Meanwhile, there are thousands upon thousands of orders sitting in limbo. I predict we see a May delivery estimate for new orders by the end of next week. Not trying to be Mr. Doom-N-Gloom but just being realistic. I think Tesla expected Austin to be up and running a lot earlier than it can possibly be. They keep taking orders for cars they can't deliver for 6 months. It's crazy. But to answer your question, as a "January" on my order date customer, I am keeping my fingers crossed.