I ordered a 5-seat LR no FSD. To follow where Tesla is in delivering, I've been loading the Teslike tracker sheet, sorting by OD, then filtering-out the stuff I didn't buy (Performance, 7-seat and FSD). Then, scroll until I find the point that about half the rows have VINs and half have no VINs. (*). I am seeing that at about August 28, for my build.
So for my model, if I had ordered 8/28, it would be a coin-flip whether I'd have gotten a VIN yet. Since I ordered two weeks later, I expect that it will be a coin-flip whether I have a VIN in two weeks.
(this ignores the off-hold orders, which may spice things up a bit)
(*)some people listed their order, but never come back to list their VIN or delivery. So you don't need to look for absolute 50% of spreadsheet lines with VINs.