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September 2021 Order Delivery Dates

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Love seeing all the "how is this so hard" posts. Here are just a few reasons off the top of my head:

- People holding multiple reservations when they only intend to take delivery of one car
- Deferred deliveries in hopes of new features/goodies
- Delivery cancellations & rejection at delivery time
- Reliance on other software systems, which themselves might be estimates with variable accuracy
- Shipping delays on parts, and other supply chain issues
- Workforce reductions because of covid outbreaks
- Shipping times for cars
- Delivery center capacity
- Confirmation bias from tmc forum posts
- The interface to display this info to customers is separate from the estimation algorithm
- Sometimes these systems (or parts of them) need maintenance, or go down (often not even their fault, e.g. AWS)
- All software has bugs
- They have better things to worry about than algorithm accuracy — like actually building cars

So easy, right?
Well within the competency of any company that cared to invest a modicum of time and resources in it. Moving people's EDD 4-6 months at a time is bush league nonsense.
 
Well within the competency of any company that cared to invest a modicum of time and resources in it. Moving people's EDD 4-6 months at a time is bush league nonsense.
Money and resources would do nothing to address most of the issues I listed, but would certainly exacerbate some of them. Could you provide an example of another system with comparable I/O that gives accurate estimates?
 
Love seeing all the "how is this so hard" posts. Here are just a few reasons off the top of my head:

- People holding multiple reservations when they only intend to take delivery of one car
- Deferred deliveries in hopes of new features/goodies
- Delivery cancellations & rejection at delivery time
- Reliance on other software systems, which themselves might be estimates with variable accuracy
- Shipping delays on parts, and other supply chain issues
- Workforce reductions because of covid outbreaks
- Shipping times for cars
- Delivery center capacity
- Confirmation bias from tmc forum posts
- The interface to display this info to customers is separate from the estimation algorithm
- Sometimes these systems (or parts of them) need maintenance, or go down (often not even their fault, e.g. AWS)
- All software has bugs
- They have better things to worry about than algorithm accuracy — like actually building cars

So easy, right?

These are valid problems, but as a trillion $ company, they have ample resources to tackle these to provide an optimal customer experience.

As long as we have people settling/defending the broken status quo, the tesla's sub-par customer experiences isn't going to improve.
 
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