Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Julian Cox]

The history of near-commodity manufactured goods suggests that no one clearly dominates.

Nothing could be further from the truth. Ever heard of Rockefeller? Richest man that ever lived since the invention of the US Dollar?

Standard Oil ring any bells? Exxon Mobil is just a little fragment of Standard Oil after Standard Oil was broken up on grounds of it being a near total monopoly on a commodity called Oil.

 

[Causalien]

Just curious, for these battery tech developments, are they:
1. in the lab, proving a certain new material can increases the battery capacity/density significantly?
2. in the lab, assembled a battery that is functional with an unknown cost to make it?
3. proven to be applicable in real world and ready to be test manufactured?
4. further down the road.

Somewhere between 3 and 4.

 

[Fallenone]

Somewhere between 3 and 4.

Wow that's great!

 

[The Blue Owl]

Bloomberg article about the executive departures at Tesla.

 

[electracity]

Yes, indeed.

Here in Chicagoland, Teslas are not frequently seen. People generally do not closely follow financial news in the manner of participants in this thread. Most people that I meet here have either never heard of Tesla Motors, or hesitatingly indicate that perhaps they have. But when I press many of the the latter types, they really know nothing about the cars.
.................

You must live in the wrong Chicagoland. I'm within 10-15 miles of three Tesla stores, and see a Model S every time I pay attention to cars.

Tesla likely has a store within an easy drive of most of the wealthiest zip codes in the country. With the S/X they face the need to sell ever more cars with ever increasing customer acquisition cost. What they need is a less expensive product that can be sold to a much larger customer base.

It was easy to place a Tesla store - just find a Ferrari dealership. But the obvious locations are now gone.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I'll put this here since Chanos decided to comment on both Tesla and SolarCity. What a jerk. Even if he's right, he's a putz for saying this right before earnings. Chanos's argument is the following:

Chanos sees SolarCity getting into “financial trouble” this year. His comments follow an August interview when he called SolarCity a “subprime” finance company, and said its customers will be unhappy with their existing leases as solar panel prices decline.

1) From SolarCity's 8-K.

The average FICO score of the residential customers in the portfolio is 744, and the commercial customers include a number of national brand retail locations. The projects were spread among 18 states with no single state representing more than 35% of the portfolio, and the vast majority of the installations were completed in 2015.

2) SolarCity sells energy. Anyone who puts solar panels on their roof today, realizes the same technology will cost less in a few years. Their main concern is that the panels work as guaranteed and produce the promised output. If I buy a computer this year, and it costs less next year will I be angry? Possibly a little. Will I have any grounds to demand a refund? No.

 

[Curt Renz]

I personally know of about two developments that have leapfrogged the current battery tech.

I would find it hard to believe that the Gigafactory will not continuously be adapted to whatever is the state of the art battery technology.

 

[Rafael]

I personally know of about two developments that have leapfrogged the current battery tech. Believe it or not, the inventors of these battery techs didn't consider Tesla seriously. In the knowledge of the rest of the world, Tesla is still a car company.

Interesting. Could you elaborate on those developments or is it confidential information?

 

[mejojo]

If I buy a computer this year, and it costs less next year will I be angry? Possibly a little. Will I have any grounds to demand a refund? No.

Keep in mind there are people suing Starbuck's because there is ice in their iced drinks.

 

[flankspeed8]

That Vin42xx thread is worrying to read...

Agreed. Even more so is the thread that many pro-Tesla Model X order people are saying that the traditional dealer experience was better at this point. Not a pleasant read:

Tesla vs car dealer experience


Communication, communication, communication,

 

[anticitizen13.7]

That Vin42xx thread is worrying to read...

Yes. People here need to pay more attention to other areas of the TMC forums, particularly the "Ordering and Delivery" sub-forums, because one can get some insight into what is actually going on at the factory. It was painfully obvious in January and February that Model X production had ground to a halt over components shortages, just from reading the threads there.

This is going to be a much more accurate indicator of short term problems than Maoing's baseless, repetitive assumptions about demand.

Demand could become an issue at some point, but that's putting the cart before the horse. All the observable evidence right now points to production problems. Until these are resolved, we won't see the company test the limits of the Generation 2 platform demand.

 

[flankspeed8]

Keep in mind there are people suing Starbuck's because there is ice in their iced drinks.

Come on lets be a little less disingenuous....they are suing because their $5 ice coffee drinks contain 75% (wag) of water in the form of ice. No different than what bars try to do with mix drinks....load up the ice.

 

[JRP3]

I would find it hard to believe that the Gigafactory will not continuously be adapted to whatever is the state of the art battery technology.

It is possible that a technology is "captured" by another company and not available to Tesla. Not likely IMO, but a possibility.

 

[JRP3]

Come on lets be a little less disingenuous....they are suing because their $5 ice coffee drinks contain 75% (wag) of water in the form of ice. No different than what bars try to do with mix drinks....load up the ice.

Right, and about as likely as trying to sue a bar for putting ice in your drink. If you don't like the product, don't purchase it.

 

[JRP3]

Agreed. Even more so is the thread that many pro-Tesla Model X order people are saying that the traditional dealer experience was better at this point. Not a pleasant read:

Tesla vs car dealer experience


Communication, communication, communication,

Certainly Tesla could do better, but that thread seems fairly balanced with people who say Tesla is better or no worse than other OEM's/dealers.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Chanos: I'm shorting Tesla

 

[tander]

Agreed. Even more so is the thread that many pro-Tesla Model X order people are saying that the traditional dealer experience was better at this point. Not a pleasant read:

Tesla vs car dealer experience


Communication, communication, communication,

This makes me wonder how it compares to the model s launch. My hunch is that they are actually doing a better job with the x launch, it just doesn't seem like it in the short-term because Tesla and TMC is much higher profile now. Although it would still be annoying to pay that much for something and have issues, although I assume that most of the early buyers knew that was a possibility.

 

[30seconds]

Poetic justice. Maybe you would like to read what I write in future rather than troll-pounding the dislike button. Baseless?? Good luck!

You get one final free pass on a dislike for the satisfaction of writing this.

If you have a problem with the dislike button I would suggest bringing it up with the mods. Since it exists it is meant to be used.

I dislike your post

 

[mrdoubleb]

Ok, time to break that refresh button again

 

[azaz]

just a note from a long and long time observer of this forum

julian has got to stop acting like everything he says is fact......it adds nothing to the discussion and is quite dangerous.