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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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People buying Model 3's are really going to buy solar at the same time?

Buying the Model 3 is a big enough financial decision for many, much less deciding to buy another $35k product.

Mr. Musk is tired.

Gee, someone being tired at 4:30am? Who would have thought.

Yes, a Model 3 buyer will want to save money by buying solar along with it. Selling a 35k product is not the same as buying a 35k product in this case - SolarCity is selling a 35k product, but the consumer is not purchasing a 35k product, they are purchasing a product which will save them money.
 
At start of call before EM talked, Tesla had their general counsel on the phone, who basically said that since EM is a >5% shareholder, they needed to update his Schedule 13-G (Statement of Beneficial Ownership) with his intention to acquire SCTY, hence the timing of the announcement.
 
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Gee, someone being tired at 4:30am? Who would have thought.

Yes, a Model 3 buyer will want to save money by buying solar along with it. Selling a 35k product is not the same as buying a 35k product in this case - SolarCity is selling a 35k product, but the consumer is not purchasing a 35k product, they are purchasing a product which will save them money.

Solarcity does not operate in many states. They are not cheaper here in Virginia as we typically pay $0.12 per kWh.
 
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Question: Basically how are you going to keep shareholders of both companies happy in the near term?

Answer:
Exchange ratio must be reasonable. Market cap is decided by investors. No zero premium. We are lower than recent prominent premiums. Reasonable market cap with resonable premium. Nothing out of whack there. Up to you guys who own shares and I have recused myself. It makes things better in the future, not worse, for everyone. I recommend voting in favor of this because it's in your best interest. We will abide by shareholder vote. I have zero doubt about this. We should have done it sooner. Doing it now gives us enough time to create a very compelling integrated product and bring to significant scale next year.
 
IMO, I suspect EM thinks that SCTY will hit FCF + in the next 6 months (likely Q4 as guided by SCTY). The shareholder voting process does take time to send out the votes, give the shareholders time to decide and submit their vote, then count the votes. This is usually done through paper mail anyways and could take over a month to get through the whole process.

When asked about why now instead of in 2 years, he went on to mention synergies in developing the integrated energy product and how this whole process would be accelerated at a rate not possible as separate companies.

A bit later he mentioned that down the road, like not far down the road as in next year, these numbers to acquire SCTY would look rather small.

IMO, if the reason in Elon's mind to do this now is to build this integrated energy solution at an accelerated pace for a favourable price. With about 6 months until SCTY is guiding to hit FCF+, and the gigafactory launch party in just over a month, and ramping TE, timing seems quite reasonable. Would've been nice to hold off until after Brexit and Q2 deliveries to lower overall uncertainty, but here we are.

EDIT: Elon just reiterated that since he's a large shareholder (>5%), they have to alert other shareholders at the start of the process. He says they will do their DD and everything else necessary for the process as it goes on and have done the required things before the end. Time is not really on their side, as I believe they want to have this whole product integrated and ramped alongside the Model 3, and they may not see such low prices on SCTY in the future (especially if SCTY is FCF+ in Q4)
 
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I'm driving to work and thinking of whether to sell some investments and pick up TSLA today. At a stoplight I look up and a sign, a vision, appears right in front of me (see photo, I adjusted contrast so the 'sign' could be seen better).

Maybe I should put everything into TSLA! :) Or maybe the red lights mean "STOP!!!" :(

(I know this really doesn't add much to the discussion, but the timing was uncanny.)
 

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Elon just said Tesla+SCTY has the potential to reach a trillion dollar mkt cap. To put things into perspective if you added the mkt cap of the most valuable energy and car company you would get $560B. I think Elon has the tendency to be unrealisticly optimistic about the future.
 
Real money, out of my bank account? Or funny money, what about the children, social costs? Sorry, some of us just don't believe in this type of financial math.

Yes, real money out of your bank account. Costs which would not be paid by society, which you are a part of, were that pollution not attached. Costs like higher health insurance - which you still pay, because you're part of the health insurance system, and it doesn't matter if you get sick or not, because you're still paying for any health problems the people around you have, that's the whole point of insurance. And many more costs on top of that, that's just the simplest one to understand. That's simply reality, very basic economics, not something to "believe in."
 
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