EV-lutioin
Active Member
Is my math wrong or would buying Solar City stock be the best way to buy Tesla stock right now? SC is quite low and as I recall when the merger goes through SC stock will traded for TSLA stock at a higher rate.
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Only if TSLA stock does not drop significantly and the deal goes through.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
If you buy SCTY, you're buying high probability of conversion 1 share of SCTY into 0.11shares of TSLA, not a certainty.
It's been discussed here ad nausea last few days.
Most people still expect deal to go through, but ever increasing gap in price is worrying some that there are big players that know something we don't
Interesting timing. Release of material info about autpilot 8 2 days before the deadline to recall tsla shares. Should add some fuel to a short squeeze.
And mondays always see some extra buying activity from people who became aware of tesla during the weekend. With press coverage of autopilot 8, this number of people should be higher than a regular weekend.
And the solarcity go-shop clause just expired.
If there is no significant upward move tomorrow it's safe to assume that there won't be a short squeeze.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
You mean a short squeeze due to forced recalls for voting? IMO it's already a safe assumption but if you want absolute proof you need to wait a few days.
OTOH I belive that there is an excellent chance of either a squeeze or a substantial upturn in the month or two following the vote.
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andrewt3000
Member
I think of Tesla as a company that is a play on the falling cost of batteries. They need to sell a lot of batteries where the economies of scale and lower costs will accrue to them. the market for energy storage is estimated to be the same as the EV market. So buying solar city is a way to sell more batteries. BYD sells batteries, EVs, and solar panels.
With regards to utility versus consumer... I think they are covering their bases. A strong residential offering puts pressure on utilities to convert to solar.. especially where there is grid parity, like Hawaii. The utilities are monopolies and they can do what they want.. they can just not buy solar or power storage even when they are at grid parity and just pass costs to consumers. Tesla has no leverage against them.
I have not liked solar city in the past... but the solar gigafactory in Buffalo NY is going to give them a differentiated product... which they need.... one with high efficiency and aesthetic appeal for consumers.
Long term, solar is predicted to drop below the cost of transmission. (See Tony Seba's work for more info on that) So I feel like residential is the best long term bet.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
You can get some fuzzy perspective of directional emphasis by clicking around on the "Careers" pages on the Tesla and SolarCity websites:
Search for Jobs | Tesla
http://www.solarcity.com/careers?department=Field Sales
I do not follow SCTY, but have read comments that customer acquisition costs have had an adverse effect on profitability. They still seem to have a lot of open personnel requisitions.
GBleck
Member
Customer acquisition cost is a problem in all US solar install companies if you look at the cost breakdown vs Germany.
The biggest synergy is the ability to have tesla build the inverters and integrate at whatever component makes sense. That reminds me. I really should sell my solar edge stock (they make inverters).
Hi all
I'm new to the forum
Can I ask how much a squeeze would typically bring to the SP, from your previous experience ?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Why do you expect Tesla to get or answer questions about Apple and SCTY on a call to talk about AP?
TrendTrader007
Active Member
22.4% TSLA short interest with 9 days to cover seems like short interest in TSLA has dropped down from 28 - 30% range
i suspect the smart money shorting TSLA is already reducing short bets
no one can say for sure if or when a short squeeze may occur but my best guess is after the Q3 delivery #s in first 3 days of October and a lot depends on the market
as far as magnitude of short squeeze who knows!
predictions are useless in investing
probabilities are worth betting upon
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Was digging around for sales number for luxury Sedans. Tesla still dominating with the others still dropping this year.
Only other one up for the year is 7 series BMW which just had a major revamp.
US sales 2016 first half Limousine segment - Left-Lane.com
The really scary one is the the premium mid-size segment. Lots of waiting Model 3 buyers?
US sales 2016 first half Premium Mid-sized segment - Left-Lane.com
Only other one up for the year is 7 series BMW which just had a major revamp.
US sales 2016 first half Limousine segment - Left-Lane.com
The really scary one is the the premium mid-size segment. Lots of waiting Model 3 buyers?
US sales 2016 first half Premium Mid-sized segment - Left-Lane.com
I suspect these results are more a case of buyers moving away from premium sedans and into premium SUVs.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
M3 reservation numbers don't support that theory.
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
What l expect if this happens is between October and February the SP to hit between $220-$320.
Note:
Highly speculative.
Also if the AP information presented today is something that would tend to support the SP (substantial enhancements to existing cars, or an announcement that some existing MS-MX's will support full autonomy) that would also tend to support my theory.
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Tesla is causing a recession for ICE car makers. Model 3's waiting list will keep growing later this year; more people will join the waiting list after they see the cars on the street. In the not too distant future, the unveil of Tesla's big rig, pickup truck, mini bus, model Y will take away more sales from those ICE makers.
I think this is just the beginning. By 2025, the majority new vehicle sales will be pure electric.
Any info on possible Hoerbiger settlement?
ORDER CONTINUING HEARING ON ORDER TO SHOW CAUSE. The hearing on the Order to Show Cause scheduled for 8/25/2016 is CONTINUED to 10:00 a.m. on 10/20/2016. On or before 10/13/2016, the parties shall file an updated joint statement setting forth the status of the settlement and the amount of additional time necessary to finalize and file a dismissal. Signed by Judge Edward J. Davila on 8/22/2016
Tesla Motors, Inc v. Hoerbiger Automotive Comfort Systems, LLC et al (5:16-cv-00288), California Northern District Court
ORDER CONTINUING HEARING ON ORDER TO SHOW CAUSE. The hearing on the Order to Show Cause scheduled for 8/25/2016 is CONTINUED to 10:00 a.m. on 10/20/2016. On or before 10/13/2016, the parties shall file an updated joint statement setting forth the status of the settlement and the amount of additional time necessary to finalize and file a dismissal. Signed by Judge Edward J. Davila on 8/22/2016
Tesla Motors, Inc v. Hoerbiger Automotive Comfort Systems, LLC et al (5:16-cv-00288), California Northern District Court
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