Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mrdoubleb]

Settle down everyone, winter is co.... I'm sorry, Monday is coming. I think we are only wondering now how good the numbers will be? Just "good", "very good" or "holy sugar!"?

I was one of the voices of caution in the past few days, but now I am also getting more optimistic reading the tracking from Norway and the reports from deliveries, etc. It may be, that all the talk about discounts will temper the TSLA jump, though, until Q3 ER shows margins were still fine.

To me it would be a major feat if they could do more than 50% of the 50k they have to delivery to meet the low end of 2016 guidance. Right now I feel that's not completely out of the realm of possibilities. If they managed to do that, the narrative would change to "Tesla only needs to deliver a little under that to meet annual guidance". That would be almost as good as showing non-GAAP profit for a quarter.

 

[MonroeSS]

Tesla is a 50 Acre corn field in the middle of Iowa.

Group 1 - Global warming and rising seas will make the middle of Iowa the new west cost. This 50 acre farm will be the new Bay Area. Buy a few plots for cheap now before it is worth $60 trillion.
Group 2 - Global warming and rising sea levels are real, but the rising lea levels will never reach flyover country and even it did this particular plot will will never be the new Bay Area.
Group 3 - Global warming is a crock of ****. The Bay area is not going anywhere. That 50 acre corn field in Iowa will soon be worth nothing when people realize this. I am going to bet against Group 1 and make money.

Each group absolutely believes they have the right and most logical opinion. Everyone else is too stupid to breathe on their own. Each group also believes that only their belief is based on facts. To be fair no one is really wrong in their assessment. Each person thinks that anyone not sharing the same belief is plain wrong. Same can be said of people. A lot of people believe deep in their hearts that their favorite presidential candidate is a "successful businessman, has a lot of integrity, invented honesty, is out to save the world". They think anyone who doesn't agree with them is too blind/stupid to realize this, is a moron or a hater.

I fell in love with cars when I was 18 and have followed "The Truth about Cars" for 13 years now. Ed Niedermeyer and Bertel Schmitt are the kind of people you wouldn't pull from a burning car and live with that decision for the rest of your life with no regrets. They hated GM with such passion, that were jokes that a Chevy ran over Ed's dog and Bertel's wife ran away with a GM salesman.

 

[brian45011]

Used to run a body shop and still paint a car every now and then. This might help... The Low VOC Lowdown: The DIYer’s Guide to Low VOC Automotive Paint

I think Tesla may still be using BASF's coating systems.

Coatings for Tesla

BASF supplies Tesla Motors with coatings for different layers. These include primer and clearcoat as well as the tin-free high throw power Cathoguard 800® e-coat with less than one percent solvents and an eco-efficient low VOC waterborne basecoat.

Request Rejected

 

[esk8mw]

September 23rd has now been set at the record date. Is there an SEC rule that says the minimum number of days after the record date a special shareholders meeting for the purpose of a vote can be held?

I think the date will be announced tomorrow and the vote will take place during the middle of next week, possibly on Friday.

There is way too much BS being spread around about the merger, and in my view, the vote needs to happen soon to shut up the trigger happy lawyers and pundits who are spreading lies and insane views about the merger.

Does anyone honestly believe the merger has no logical rational and the primary reason it is being done is to prevent SolarCity from going bankrupt? Can Elon sue a law firm for spreading lies about Tesla and making outrageous and baseless allegations about Elon's motivation for supporting the merger?

Obviously Elon is lying about Tesla having a new product that will surprise all the nay sayers and will prove that the merger makes a lot of sense.

Obviously SolarCity is in the process of reshuffling its operations to prepare for the merger for lols, and has no confidence that the merger will be approved.

Obviously Elon is lying when he says the majority of shareholders who know what they are investing in support the merger. He must also have lied in the SEC filing that outlines the DD procedures that took place and the insiders and independent groups that support the merger.

The SEC hasn't even commented on the S-4 yet. That will take weeks/months. The hearing for the BS lawsuits is October 14th (the date would be moved up if the vote was to be scheduled sooner).

There is quite literally a 0% chance of the vote happening next week.

 

[Big Dog]

Does anyone honestly believe the merger has no logical rational and the primary reason it is being done is to prevent SolarCity from going bankrupt?

The problem with such a question is that it is either/or with nothing available in between. Personally, I do find some rationale for the merger, but I just don't find it very compelling. (And I sold my TSLA, at loss.) I have no opinion on your second question.

 

[CarsForLife]

I think Tesla may still be using BASF's coating systems.

Coatings for Tesla

BASF supplies Tesla Motors with coatings for different layers. These include primer and clearcoat as well as the tin-free high throw power Cathoguard 800® e-coat with less than one percent solvents and an eco-efficient low VOC waterborne basecoat.

Request Rejected

Based on that info... the Tesla average VOC/gallon for their cars would almost assuredly be BELOW 2. The 4.8 number is ridiculously wrong, especially since it's 37% higher than the legal allowable VOC for the highest component of an automotive paint job in California.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I think Tesla may still be using BASF's coating systems.

Coatings for Tesla

BASF supplies Tesla Motors with coatings for different layers. These include primer and clearcoat as well as the tin-free high throw power Cathoguard 800® e-coat with less than one percent solvents and an eco-efficient low VOC waterborne basecoat.

Request Rejected

Good link, strange title for the link ("Request Rejected"). Thought it wouldn't work...

 

[RobStark]

Settle down everyone, winter is co.... I'm sorry, Monday is coming.

 

[brian45011]

Even the shorts know that 3rd quarter sales are going to be good.

Why isn't at least some of the price action a reflection of quarter end window dressing by institutions?

"Question 8b
Q: Should a manager use the trade date or the settlement date for [13f] reporting purposes?
A: The trade date.

Division of Investment Management: FAQ About Form 13F

Closing share price on 6/30/16: $212.28

 

[brian45011]

Thanks yeah I was talking about call options (not executive/vested options). Is it normal to interpret that statement as applying to calls/puts as well? I remember bringing this up a while ago and I think some were thinking they just become worthless, and someone was saying they turn into weird fractional calls where 1 scty call would turn into .11 tsla calls. This would be nice to know for since 2019 scty calls are looking pretty discounted and they aren't even available yet for tsla.

Go to CBOE's or OCC's education/FAQs web pages (They're converted to TSLA options using the 0.11 ratio).

 

[MitchJi]

This could be related to whoever bought a massive number of October 7 puts at the asked price yesterday: 1000 puts at the 197.5 strike price and 1000 puts at the 200 strike price. Coordinated dissemination of FUD could make a lot of money for any short sellers in the loop and cooperating bloggers, if the puts end up in the money and the resulting profits are shared.

October 7 2016?

You mean if the resulting losses are shared!

 

[hobbes]

Of somebody about to screw up the quarter

I found today a bit less than funny.

Well grats to whoever has spare money laying around.

Hopefully, the market rebounds tomorrow + Friday bump + delivery number hype will bring us back up where we were or higher.

Max pain for tomorrow is at $210, 5% premium...

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I found today a bit less than funny.

Well grats to whoever has spare money laying around.

Hopefully, the market rebounds tomorrow + Friday bump + delivery number hype will bring us back up where we were or higher.

I have a job that's putting me in an early grave and a stock that's a volitile sucker. I decided today that I must laugh more and dose everything with humour. This too shall pass

 

[Cosmacelf]

I have a job that's putting me in an early grave and a stock that's a volitile sucker. I decided today that I must laugh more and dose everything with humour. This too shall pass

For sure. TSLA is a good long term hold stock. If you're long in it, just sit back and relax, it'll eventually be worth more. If you like playing the ups and downs, and especially if you like to gamble with options, then you have to realize that you could be wrong footed on a trade and lose money. It's the same with any stock. Short term trading or day trading is a high risk high reward sport, and if you don't have the constitution/personality for it, don't do it. For everyone else, these prices are looking pretty good!

 

[Hogfighter]

Where's Johan been?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The SEC hasn't even commented on the S-4 yet. That will take weeks/months. The hearing for the BS lawsuits is October 14th (the date would be moved up if the vote was to be scheduled sooner).

There is quite literally a 0% chance of the vote happening next week.

Which lawsuit? Wouldn't the only reason the BS lawsuit would cause Tesla to delay the vote would be if Tesla felt there was any merit to the lawsuit? It's impractical and illogical that Tesla would have to explain at a hearing why the merger makes sense. Elon has said when he will release the new product, that is one of the reasons the merger makes sense. I'm not a lawyer, but wouldn't it be absurd for an investor to use a hearing to force a company to reveal valuable company secrets?

I'll need to research the lawsuits a bit more, but don't these types of cases typically get thrown out before the hearing stage? Something like Tesla having a confidential discussion with the judge explaining why the case is absurd?

It's not even clear if Korainski LLP has been able to find a plaintiff who wants their name attached to this cockamamie lawsuit. I'll check later, but my guess is they haven't been able to since they have been promoting their search for a plantiff every day for the past week.

 

[Ulmo]

There's one TMC member who's been on this particular soapbox for at least 3 years or so. Do a search, see if you think it's a big deal (most of didn't), and forget about it as a problem.

Compliance (of GPL, etc.), if it becomes any type of issue, is trivial and easy (from my memory of this). Most of the arguments I saw about GPL compliance surrounded the moral impact on outcome of work, and while fully pertinent to their own sets of arguments, weren't huge hits on procedure (from my memory of this). The GPL compliance articles recently "published" are just more FUD.

(Speaking of obstinate people --- RMS asked me what I thought of software and other works, I responded, and he never replied.)

 

[dc_h]

New construction at Fremont?! First I'm hearing of this. I assumed Model3 assembly line would be within the existing factory walls. Same with Robotic build-in-white weld line...

Can anyone uncover what the NEW construction will be for?

I'm way behind on thread, but sounds like construction of storage and non final assembly space, needed to make more room for the line and a second press and paint system.

 

[Ulmo]

I'm way behind on thread, but sounds like construction of storage and non final assembly space, needed to make more room for the line and a second press and paint system.

Careful: I put my foot in my mouth repeatedly on this topic. Watch before you get into it.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Have not been able to find anything about a lawsuit against Tesla on the New York state docket.

Interestingly, I did discover that Tesla Motors filed a lawsuit against the state of Michigan on September 23rd.