Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Statistically speaking, this rally should hold. Market designed to frustrate the most participants.

 

[techmaven]

again with the wave... like I said before... WHAT WAVE?... show me where on the balance sheet Tesla Energy's $400m contribution THIS YEAR is?

Tesla Energy Has 100,000 Orders For Battery Energy Storage System

"It seems that Tesla Energy is sold out through the end of 2016. In the fourth quarter, Tesla expects $40-45 million of revenues at gross margins of maybe 15%. Next year, quarterly revenues could be 10-times higher, reaching a few billion annually in 2017"

this is from statements made by Elon himself in the 2Q15 conference call.

They ended up shifting production to the Gigafactory early in Q4, 2015... shifting timelines back by 1 quarter or so. Contribution this year is maybe around $250-300 million in revenue. However, gross margin is likely low right now. That won't be the case very soon with Gigafactory cell output.

As it stands, there is very little baked into the SP for Tesla Energy - matter of fact, one can argue that it is right now a negative on the SP. The models change quite dramatically if the reverse is proven true. We are right in the middle of the s curve right now... hence, you want to wait for the end of the s-curve to see if it is true, but the wave will have hit by then.

 

[brian45011]

At this point it wouldn't be hard for them to get $1B bond offering without an early call. The cash flows are solid enough

With
i) a B- S&P credit rating (four levels below investment grade);
II) all of Tesla's valuable assets outside of NV pledged to the ABL creditors (check the restrictive covenants on new debt);
iii) outstanding contractual obligations of $3.1 billion including a $1.7 billion take-or-pay obligation to Panasonic;
iv) a fully drawn $300 million debt to Deutsche Bank under the most recent "warehouse" line (due in two years) secured by direct leases with anywhere from 24 to 48 month terms; and
v) another ~$220 million in face value of 2018 notes that can be early converted anytime through year-end by giving notice???

The capital markets may not be that interested in using 10% of a bond offering to help repay Elon and the Rive cousins for those 6.25% 18 month Solar Notes Another down value (3rd in 2 years) equity offering is far more likely.

 

[techmaven]

Funny! I remember that same wave analogy used for the Model X when it had 35,000 reservations.

And now that the Model X is under full swing, we are seeing positive cash flow from operations. Model X is now the 3rd most popular plug-in EV in the U.S. as tracked by InsideEVs. We will see how the next couple of quarters goes. RHD Model X hasn't been in any quarterly report yet, reservations from before launch are still being fulfilled.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

When does the "Chanos no longer short" news hit the wire? My magic 8 ball is on fire.

 

[winfield100]

... Then I zoomed out and found that the panels only take up a fraction of the island's area. From a rough estimate of the area covered by the whole installation, i calculated that 0.04% of the Island's area.........
Still, the population density in the mainland US is about 3 times that of Ta'u, .......this suggests a need for 58,800 km2 .... Anybody want to point out where I went wrong by an order of magnitude or two?

this is both off topic and on topic,
go to this page, Dr Richard Perez has a lot of reseach over last 20-30 years, read the publications, think "Distributed Energy Resourses" etc (apologies to most, but this is why Tesla ENERGY will overwhelm like a pseudomonas culture overgrowing everything rapidly)
Perez.page

 

[Jayjs20]

Got my paycheck last week, starting to regret holding out for 180 when 184 was staring at me right in the face. Shorts letting me down.

 

[Navin]

Squeeze is on!!!

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

My username: It's days like this, where I expect significant gains to hold, as to why I don't sell "hoping" for a better entry point. It's a fools game with Tesla.

 

[techmaven]

With
i) a B- S&P credit rating (four levels below investment grade);
II) all of Tesla's valuable assets outside of NV pledged to the ABL creditors (check the restrictive covenants on new debt);
iii) outstanding contractual obligations of $3.1 billion including a $1.7 billion take-or-pay obligation to Panasonic;
iv) a fully drawn $300 million debt to Deutsche Bank under the most recent "warehouse" line (due in two years) secured by direct leases with anywhere from 24 to 48 month terms; and
v) another ~$220 million in face value of 2018 notes that can be early converted anytime through year-end by giving notice???

The capital markets may not be that interested in using 10% of a bond offering to help repay Elon and the Rive cousins for those 6.25% 18 month Solar Notes Another down value (3rd in 2 years) equity offering is far more likely.

Well... what do you mean by all of Tesla's valuable assets? The ABL is $1 billion. The inventory alone is $1.6 billion. How is that all of Tesla's valuable assets?

The outstanding purchase obligations don't start until some time after the Gigafactory starts operations. Clearly, Panasonic wants Tesla to succeed and get a return on their investments. Assuming $100/kWh, the revenue of the first phase of the Gigafactory's annual output is $2 billion (Tesla -> Panasonic). Not sure why roughly 1.5 years of output from a single phase is considered onerous.

Again, why is leasing such a bugaboo? They draw from the warehouse line because they leased vehicles. They don't draw from the warehouse line if they don't lease vehicles. If owners default on the leases, Tesla gets the car back.

 

[dennis]

I heard that argument.
Is that one year delay in developing and delivering an integrated solution worth $1B?

Did you buy solar panels from another Musk company when you got your Tesla? And a battery too?
If not, how integrated does it needed to be before you bought it?

If you haven't read Geoffrey Moore's "Crossing the Chasm" about the adoption curve for technology products you should. You'd learn that there is a relatively small initial market to Innovators and Early Adopters that will put up with the difficulties of a piecemeal solution in order to get the benefits of the new technology. But there is a much much larger market of Early and Late Majority buyers who won't purchase until there is an easy to consume integrated solution.

Solar City has done well in reaching those early buyers. Tesla Solar is aiming to expand that to the broader market and much higher revenues .

 

[GBleck]

Interesting. Not at all helped by Nasdaq macro!today. How are solar and auto doing this morning?

Broke upward after $187 outpacing a good morning by GM. Ford just chugging along with the market. Nothing happened on the solar side of the market. Purely the result of breaking the resistance at $187?

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Social media is starting to buzz with $TSLA price/volume action today. (Note: These are "random" tweets as far as I'm concerned - I know nothing about the authors, their motives or otherwise. They are not necessarily people I follow.)

 

[vgrinshpun]

There are 231,462 shares available for shorting at fidelity, interest rate 2.5%. Here is how the drawdown looked yesterday:

View attachment 203138

Apologies to the members of the team that are sick from looking at this data - no data available to report on institutional SO moves. For the members of fair and balanced watch team, this post now should qualify as 1 to 1 (short selling activity vs. institutional SO activity).

An interesting trading today: it seems that there is some short covering is going on (red) alternating with the period of large drawdown (blue) that seem to coincide with some capping on the daily chart.

 

[winfield100]

Social media is starting to buzz with $TSLA price/volume action today. /ATTACH]

social media can be helped by posting and sharing the Samoa story about powering with PV and battery. sometimes you can create and replicate memes.....(positive story with positive results, good news, not gloom)
Tesla converted an entire island to solar with new microgrid product developed by SolarCity

 

[MitchJi]

Great post, and I very much agree with your conclusion there. Of course the short term price movements of TSLA isn't just dictated by short selling, but then again it is one of the absolutely most highly shorted stocks in the market and has been for a very long time, so it would also be very strange to think that short activity didn't have very important implications for both the short term and the long term price dynamic of TSLA. (If it affects the price short term then of course it will affect the price long term).

Disagree that this will have any impact on the LT SP.

Feeling good we hit a bottom. Sold common and bought ITM leap calls 2018. Will take advantage of the volatility in TSLA and sell way OTM weekly and monthly calls against that position for some gas money. Pun intended. Good luck to all and be on the lookout for shorts dressed as posters trying to influence people on this msg board. It's so obvious it's kinda funny.

J18 LEAPS seem pretty risky to me. A two to three month delay, combined with FUD and ignorance and they could be toast. IMO J19 $200's would be safer and probably cost less than ITM J18's.

 

[vgrinshpun]

View attachment 203152
One of the advantages of studying short selling techniques is that you can determine when something potentially significant happens. Notice the mandatory morning dip and the capping effort at 186.50. It held like a titanium overcast... up until a few minutes ago.

So, the new cap at 188 held for a little over 20 minutes but it too fell to buyers.
View attachment 203153


One possibility? Some SCTY shorts may be using their new TSLA positions to exit today.

And I have data to prove this, see my post above. You are doing pretty good with your silly stuff, Papafox.

 

[sundaymorning]

did you also see this one?
Tesla powers a whole island with solar to show off its energy chops

There's just too many catalysts for Tesla right now.

 

[stealthology]

Disagree that this will have any impact on the LT SP.


J18 LEAPS seem pretty risky to me. A two to three month delay, combined with FUD and ignorance and they could be toast. IMO J19 $200's would be safer and probably cost less than ITM J18's.

If everything was so simple..

 

[Value Ev]

But there is a much much larger market of Early and Late Majority buyers who won't purchase until there is an easy to consume integrated solution.

.

You may want to re-read your copy.
Crossing the Chasm is not about the need for vertically integrated solutions. Tesla cars were already a whole product.

By now positioning a new value offering, a new "whole product" - Solar, Battery, Car, they are actually stepping back from an attempt to cross the chasm with the original whole product and instead going back to create a new value proposition and going after a new set of early innovators - that is not going after the mass market.

How many early innovators here have bought off on that "new whole product" (solar, battery, car)? Have you?

And if the early innovators of the original whole product haven't done so in mass, why do people believe that the mass market will differ from the early innovators?

TL: DR
Changing the product from one that innovators have already adopted (the whole product of the Car) to a different product (Battery, Solar, Car) that has not yet been adopted by the innovators, is NOT how you cross the chasm into the mass market.