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SpaceX Mars Mission and Funding Discussion

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Cosmacelf

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Mar 6, 2013
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Somehow I couldn't find a thread about SpaceX's Mars Mission, even though that's the whole point of SpaceX's existence. Anyways, here audio of Elon talking about the mars mission a few days ago.

I got a kick from his answer about how much NASA is helping - very little was the answer.

 
It sounded like Elon was eating a meal. He didn’t seem to be completely focused on the interview questions.

Yes, it did sound like he was eating a meal. Talk about odd. Did he know this was a recorded interview? He must have because of the way the questions were framed? But to be fair to Elon, some (many?) of the questions were idiotic, as they always seem to be.

I did get a kick out of the question asking him specifics on Raptor. He actually launched into a technical overview! Now, the answer wasn't anything more than what anyone who has watched Scott Manley's videos didn't already know, but it sounded like the interviewer had no clue about it.

I also thought it interesting that he said they hadn't really started thinking about how to create a colony on Mars. As usual with Elon and SpaceX, they focus on the problems at hand and are confident they'll figure something out for the future problems down the road.
 
Yes, the interview questions were unremarkable. Again. If only Elon would provide one hour of time with Eric Berger, Scott Manley, and Tim Dodd, we might learn something.
thought it interesting that he said they hadn't really started thinking about how to create a colony on Mars.
I wasn’t surprised by that. Right now SpaceX is focused on solving the tremendous challenge of creating a fully reusable orbital class rocket with an unprecedented payload capacity. The next enormous challenge is creating an in-orbit refueling system with dedicated Starship “tankers” so that Starship can leave Earth orbit with a useful payload. Both of those challenges require mastering the Starship re-entry technique, something which has never been attempted before.

And those are just the first of many essential steps needed towards creatIng a long term self-sustaining colony on Mars. What is also needed is:

  • A Starship life support system for anywhere from 10 to 100 people that can sustain them for 6 to 8 months in deep space, outside the Earth’s magnetic field. The Crew Dragon capabilities are a very small first step in that direction. Of course NASA has a wealth of knowledge gained from the ISS and will certainly share it but
  • Power production equipment that can reliably function on the surface of Mars long term and produce many orders of magnitude more power than we have ever produced on that planet in the tiny rovers.
  • A reliable rocket fuel production system using Martian resources
  • Martian life support system that provides a breathable atmosphere, food, and radiation protection.
  • Ensuring that Starship can reliably launch from Mars and return to Earth, meaning the Starship hardware has to be able to tolerate sitting on the Martian surface for 2+ years and then function perfectly.
That is the basic list I come up with just to get a small number of people to Mars and then return them to Earth after two years. To create an independent self-sustaining Martian colony of a million people will require meeting many additional challenges.

Note: in my opinion, the ability to reliably return people to Earth after a 2+ year stay on Mars is very important. It removes an enormous psychological barrier for anyone considering making the trip, knowing they can come back if they want to. The people who decide to go will be volunteers. Certainly there will be some people who will volunteer and say they have no expectation of returning. But there will be many highly qualified people who will have concerns about a one-way trip, people who could be very useful on Mars.

Everyone who goes to Mars will need to be carefully screened to try to unsure they can tolerate the mental stresses inherent in the enterprise. Minimizing the need for medical treatments in transit and on Mars will also be necessary as resources will be very limited. Although this is not a military operation, colonists will still need to carefully follow operational protocols and orders from the governing authorities. The safety and continuing existence of the colony will require a very high degree of cooperation and mutual respect and tolerance. Daredevils and rebels need not apply.
 
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I wouldn't immediately rule out those folks, especially for early Mars missions. They possess the kind of qualities that could be effective for survival.
I disagree with you on that one. Mars is going to be the most hostile environment to long term habitation that people have ever experienced. And once you arrive on Mars, “long term” is the only option. You can’t de-orbit from LEO and be back home in hours, or lift off from the Moon and be back home in days. On Mars it will be absolutely critical that every person follows the rules and always thinks about how their actions will impact the entire community. This will remain the case for many decades, if the colony manages to survive for that long. Every colonist will have to leave their egos and their personal self-interest back on Earth.

Fail to seal an airlock properly? People could die. Fail to properly maintain life support systems? People will die. Fail to get along with other members of the community and let personal conflicts intensify and build up towards violent outcomes? You can’t just pick up your house and move to another town, you are stuck right where you are.

Of course we will need innovative thinkers and resourceful leaders on Mars. What we don’t want are hotshots seeking personal glory.
 
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Here is one take on what kind of people will be needed for colonizing Mars. In Space, Let Meritocracy Reign Supreme - Quillette
Good debate. Meritocracy hasn't quite worked out yet on Earth, might as well give it a shot on Mars. Good luck to those attempting to select the stable ones among us to initially populate Mars. Within NASA's own limited population in the Astronaut Corps, they've demonstrated it's next to impossible. We're all familiar with one, charged with attempted kidnapping and attempted murder. Much less known is the individual about to be tried on two counts of reckless murder. Evaluations can be used to reduce the probability of selecting individuals with a predisposition for future mental health issues, but can't eliminate all.

To my earlier point on those daredevil personalities. I'm not referring to a reckless risk taker (though love that BS scene of an inebriated Denzel rolling that airliner). I'd look to those who have the ability to sideline their fear and think clearly while solving a flight emergency. Even if a Starship is fully automated, for at least the first few missions I wouldn't mind having a couple of those Space Cowboy types up front. Just in case.
 
I'd look to those who have the ability to sideline their fear and think clearly while solving a flight emergency.
Absolutely.

Also agree that it is impossible to perfectly screen people and prevent all possible future problems. But it is possible to do a pretty good job, and I think NASA has done that with the astronaut corps.
 
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This article advocating for human colonization of Mars oddly spends relatively little space on explaining why that is important and more space debunking the idea that returning colonists could inadvertently infect Earth with deadly Martian microbes (which is indeed a ridiculous fear concocted by people who have little to no understanding of human biology)

Should We Colonize Mars? The Fate of Humanity May One Day Depend on It - Quillette
 
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Humanity needs to grow up at some point. Expansion into space makes this even more critical despite what dramatic or fanciful science fiction shows and movies depict. It is relatively simple to do tremendous harm to an ecosystem/biosphere once you have multi-planetary capability. As ecarfan points out, stupidity and carelessness can be damaging in and of itself - active malice can be much worse.
 
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