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  1. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    What do you see in the environment that leads you to this?
  2. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    At a societal level this kind of deflation is a huge positive. Cars will need a smaller and smaller fraction of the family budget over time. But in the short term while the cost to build these things is still plummeting, and for individuals that expected the $67k residual value and now have...
  3. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I've got a mess to clean up and I'd like to see what holes people can poke in this logic I've applied. I flip-rolled some -200/+170p put spreads expiring next week, out to -145/+175c call spreads expiring in April. Yes - DITM on one side, to DITM on the other side. I rarely roll for a debit...
  4. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    In my case if I purchased June '26 300 strike leaps (and I have) then I'd be looking to sell before June 2025. I'll carry them further forward than that if I need to, but I'll be getting really itchy if I still own them in June 2025 because of that time decay problem. At 6 months I'll be...
  5. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Perfection of course would be selling shares today at 162 and then buying leaps later at 130 (or whatever). But that is a highly directional position to be taking. The rationale for the shares to leaps shift as a simultaneous transaction is that you eliminate the directionality / timing...
  6. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I'm in a waiting for lower share price mode right now. Like a few others I'm seeing a bad combination of 2024 macro and company setup that I see readily translating into a serious revaluation of the company downwards. I have seen the market "wake up" a couple of times and realize that the...
  7. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    It's a calendar spread in general, and a poor man's covered call in this specific combination. Those are the magic terms that will help you find stuff to tell you in as much, or more, details as you'd like about them.
  8. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Closed out some more call spreads. These started life as put spreads and were fairly far ITM, got flip rolled into 195/225 call spreads for 3/22 expiration. Down to $3 or so, from probably $20 - I think we've got more down than up from here, but getting out of that position makes me happy...
  9. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    A little bit up today was enough for me - opened some 200 strike cc for next week @ .54. I don't see this little bit of an uptick lasting.
  10. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    In honor of this most recent tangent, I want to remind everybody that none of us are tax pros or financial advisers. Even if we actually are those things outside of this forum, none of us are any of those things here. So anything you learn here, you need to go do your own research, because any...
  11. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    It's not moot. But to the degree that that those losses are rolled into existing positions, then they're not yet realized losses - they are adjustments to cost basis. So sell a 200 strike put for $10 and take assignment. Instead of a $10 realized cap gain from the put, what goes into your...
  12. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    It'll be a real / realized loss. You'll just be entering a new position that puts more cash in your pocket to go forward from there with. Rolling a losing position realizes the losing position, while creating positive cash flow when you roll for a credit. Just remember that you can maintain...
  13. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    While I was still earning a paycheck, I never understood the difference between normal (paycheck) income and capital gains. It matters in other areas - you can only contribute to IRAs using normal income, not capital gains / investment income. Makes sense when I think about it some - makes me...
  14. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I can answer that! I've got me some of that kind of asset. If you had, as a hypothetical, a net capital loss of $500k in 2024, then you'll take $3k against the rest of your income on this year's taxes, and you'll have a $497k capital loss carried forward into next year. When you have a net...
  15. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I'm still trying to figure out a good DTE when buying options, and I know that there isn't a one-size-fits-all answer by any stretch. I'm finding that my success with buying options comes from buying the max dte options at what I consider a good price and waiting. So far I'm getting good...
  16. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I'm thinking battery backup / generator backup.
  17. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Or a bonus opportunity for making money! An important part of the reason I sell both puts and calls, is that I'd like to have tools in my kit that can make money in either direction. Of course that also means that I can lose money in either direction.
  18. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Don't know about the thread. I keep this forum bookmarked and when I click into the thread it takes me to the start of the Unread posts. Maybe that will help.
  19. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Friday I flip rolled some -205/+175 put spreads into -195/+225 call spreads, now for mar 22nd exp (small net credit). The swing trade has this itm spread moved so that it is now otm after today's move, instead of back deep in the doodoo. In fact I could flip roll them right now (or at least...
  20. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    No buying yet. I did buy last time around 190 and am glad that I did (in the form of June '26 300 strike calls). I probably should start buying again as I sold most of those when we were more like 205. The rationale for buying again at this price would be the same as it was last time - that...
  21. adiggs

    Elon Compensation Package

    I saw the proposed fee. And in a way I'm glad they asked that much. Because I think that fee award might help get the whole mess over turned on appeal. I'm a shareholder that voted for this compensation plan, and I was ecstatic to do. Who ever heard of a CEO who believe in the company and...
  22. adiggs

    Supercharger Revenue

    I read the linked article. As somebody that has followed the company for over a decade, I see so many glaring omissions and missed emphasis, its just painful. In this case I suspect that there is no malicious intent - its being written by a journalist that doesn't have any history, so they are...
  23. adiggs

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Somebody posted similar info recently, but as a time series. Poland came from out of nowhere to move ahead of the US in spending as % of GDP. Almost like they think they've got an existential threat on their border and need to rely on themselves to deal with it.
  24. adiggs

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I agree that this is the effect he's having. If only I thought this was what he was trying to accomplish. European leaders are right to be scared, or at least proactively assuming that the US is a non-participant after decades of support. (Europe under spending NATO spending targets certainly...
  25. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    This is part of our edge on the market. We know these things about Tesla. We even invest our effort trying to explain things like this to our friends, family, and colleagues who mostly don't get it. I personally prefer this approach to things. Or at least that's how I see it. And as a...
  26. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Recent close was a 20% gain at what I thought was a local top. Local top would be on a daily to weekly timeframe, not a daily to hourly time frame. I am entirely comfortable swing trading in and out of these a couple of times a month. Heck it'd be grand to do that.
  27. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    My experience here is that the really hard part is being will to not buy (or sell), and just sit it out when the trades aren't really there. Given today's macro and this year's guidance from Tesla, if the share price were 270 in a month, then I'd be selling whatever leaps I owned and buying...
  28. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    If anybody should know - I should! One thing that is for certain, ever since I started the thread, is that my own trading pattern and style is constantly evolving. I've tried closer dated calls and puts, and they pretty much all turn out to be gambling and I lose on them. But when teh share...
  29. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I've been buying June 2026 300 strike calls. I think the 250s are another good choice. Since I want these resolved before they reach 12 months to expiration, going ITM isn't a big deal to me. I just need the value of the calls to increase, and then close them out at something I feel is in the...
  30. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I am increasingly positioned for a move down. I'd like to see 170 but I'll be taking winners and buying leaps as early as 180 or 190 (I won't wait for 170 on the winners). I've been taking some losses on puts and put spreads that have shrunk to be manageably small, so they are out of the way...
  31. adiggs

    All discussion of Rivian Automotive

    Gotta say - that 3 line financial analysis sure looks compelling. That doesn't address the business question of whether they can make it a profitable product, but that is one hell of a jump start for somebody that wants in on that business.
  32. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    A question about the different chart frequencies - 4h, 2h, 1h in particular. The trading day is 6.5 hours long. So what, specifically, does a 4h candle represent. I think its pretty clearly not 4 trading hours - that would mean 1 candle on some days, 2 candles on others, and the candles...
  33. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    On the "Primary Analysis" picture, and realize that I'm still learning and studying EWT, one of the "rules" of an impulsive wave is that wave 2 and 4 can not overlap. These are the 2 corrective waves within the larger 5 wave impulsive structure. These are labeled as (i), (ii), (iii), (iv)...
  34. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    In a weird bit of reverse psychology, and to take advantage of just how consistently wrong I've been for awhile now, I decided to try something out. I just went and figured out what cash secured put position I would open earlier this morning - position size, strike, expiration. And then...
  35. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Keep in mind that things like that probability calculator represent the chance that the market is pricing in for that event to occur, not some kind of external / absolute probability.
  36. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    For those using TradingView - did you find any basic education info on using the tool / site / charts itself, and if so would you point me to that? I've got a trivial chart setup, mostly so I see the momentary TSLA trade price in a tab in my browser, but am stuck on really making use of the...
  37. adiggs

    The demise of the OEMs

    Is it just me, or does it sound like this headline is getting cause and effect backwards (is it lower EV prices that are driving the cheaper batteries, or is it the batteries that enable the lower EV prices? H'mmm...). The first line of the article looks like it has more typical causation in mind.
  38. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    TastyTrade. $1/contract in, $0 out. Max of $10 per leg per order (so buying 50 contracts is $10).
  39. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    The thing about max pain is that prior to expiration week, for almost every expiration of the year, the contract volume and the amount of money involved, doesn't much move the needle. There will be some sway being exerted, but its minor compared to the $$ and contract volume of the final week...
  40. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    If you've ever read Asimov's Foundation Series that is how I think about EW. While humans are highly unpredictable at the individual level, as we gather together into larger and larger piles of humans, we grow increasingly predictiable. In the Foundation Series, the key "technology" if you...
  41. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I would certainly say that (EW is not algorithmic). You could certainly apply your own logic, the larger EW logic, and write your own program! EW provides patterns, and rules that help describe the patterns, but most of the time there are at least 2 possibilities for how things develop...
  42. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Update - just finished the 2nd reading. The tail end 1/3rd or 1/4th of the book is about translating the wave identification and patterns from the front chunk of the book into a trading system. I had forgotten that part from the first reading - its a really good transition from reading a...
  43. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07B4XLRPV/ref=kinw_myk_ro_title This is the book on Elliot Waves that has helped make the ideas and patterns start to make sense for me. Kindle Unlimited or $3 or so - its 100 pages and short / easy enough to read that I was able to just read it through...
  44. adiggs

    The demise of the OEMs

    I know that GM did something like this - didn't Ford as well? I would like these choices a lot more if they were paired up with a detailed explanation of how they can return cash to shareholders this way while keeping their EV technology related investments unaffected. Clearly Tesla is an...
  45. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    OMG. So if this is accurate, and I'm reading this right, then the labour court has found that Tesla broke union election rules by calling for the new election 15 days too early (over a 2 year window)? Yeah - that headline is heavy on the FUD and light on the facts. "Wait 2 weeks" isn't...
  46. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    For me at least these are good questions to have my own answers to before I will do any trades in a stock. I've also worked in the chip manufacturing and design industry (Intel), though in IT, so I know some but not a lot about the industry. I believe I could gain the necessary knowledge...
  47. adiggs

    Delaware to Texas Incorporation

    I've wondered about this as well. And while not a lawyer, my next question / thought is who would be sued? The judge isn't a target for a lawsuit. The legal recourse here is for Tesla to appeal the result. Whether that is actually good legal strategy, IANAL and do not have legal opinions. I...
  48. adiggs

    Delaware to Texas Incorporation

    The downside of his bet was 5-10 years of intense work, in an industry where the evidence was still in favor of the premise that new car companies are just a good way to waste money and visit bankruptcy court. For no pay.
  49. adiggs

    Delaware to Texas Incorporation

    I certainly respect your point of view. I even understand where it comes from. This shareholder however disagrees with you. I voted for the compensation plan, and put to a vote again today, I will vote for it again. Pretty much everything on your list is only an issue to be improved on...
  50. adiggs

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Agree that income is the point - at least it is for me and why I'm doing this. However the first priority of income is to avoid permanent loss of capital. If you've got a position you're rolling, then you're rolling it because it is a loss. In this instance profit is turning the loss into a...