Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Alameda County's Health Officer Leaves For State Job

Dr. Erica Pan has left her post

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyway 120GWh - surely Roadrunner does that every week?

Even at 3 kg/kwh (equals 333 Wh/kg which is on the high side of possible bty energy density), 120GWh represents 360 thousand tons of finished product.

That's 2,770 fully loaded coal wagon's worth. You gonna shift that each week? Did you forget to add a /S ?

Even 1 thousand tons per day is phenomenal. It's the equivalent of a 54 coal wagons per week of FINISHED product. For inbound raw materials, that probably WILL need a freight train load every single week.

Lo·gis·tics. (n)

Indeed I think that once initial capacity is established, Tesla will increase bty production not by increasing logistics, but by increasing energy density of the products.

Cheers!

Just for fun: I estimate it'd take 1 freight train per day and a bty energy density of 400Wh/kg to turn Giga Texas into Tera Texas (that is, 1 TWhr/yr annual battery production rate). That's enough for 1.5M Cybertrucks, and double that left over in btys for MegaPack, Semi, Model 2/Y. And that is one TEXAS-sized logistics operation.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Sandy neglects the costs of building a battery manufacturing plant, likely since he's got zero experience in spec'ing one out.

600K Cybertrucks per year @ 200KWhr each will need about 120 GWh/yr of batteries. But Sandy doesn't consider that in his cost estimate.

Because it wasn't germane to the body construction costs comparison? The F150's engine and transmission construction costs weren't included in his estimate either. It was strictly about vehicle body construction costs.

 

[Unpilot]

Market watch story on a Animatron....have they really sank so low?


Automotive icon Bob Lutz once predicted Tesla was headed to the ‘graveyard’ — 430% later, he’s not so sure

 

[ZeApelido]

Here is a 3 month snapshot of our favorite stock.
I imagine this to be like climbing Mt. Everest.

Need a few resting places on the way up.
we are at elevation 1500 feet right now.

View attachment 564806

Yeah don't want to get acute mountain sickness or worse cerebral edema.

Wait a second, are you trying to push dexamethasone on us?

 

[vwman111]

Sorry if this is a silly question...

With the almost certain run-up that will happen in the stock over the next month or two, why aren't MMs buying up shares to sell at a high in 1-3 months?

I understand that shorts have a constant belief that the stock is on its way to zero and therefore it doesn't get better than selling at these levels, but it would seem like everyone else should be positioning for a rally!!

 

[Todd Burch]

Sorry if this is a silly question...

With the almost certain run-up that will happen in the stock over the next month or two, why aren't MMs buying up shares to sell at a high in 1-3 months?

Maybe because it requires them to have an investment time horizon somewhere beyond 7 hours.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just to be clear, what is the news regarding the semi production line?

Twitter rumor from a supposed GF1 Insider that a pilot Semi production line is under construction at Sparks, NV: (BillWright on Twitter)

"New nugget: pilot line for Semi coming together..."​

Now the presumption is that the new line is at GF1 because he supposedly works there, although the wording doesn't specify. He's generally been a solid source in the past though.

Cheers!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Great, now the whole state is going into lock-down.

Seriously, is her leaving Alameda County, and the news of a Model Y tent (shutdown?) giving anyone reason to believe Mfg could also be hit again in Fremont? Are both these activities a leading indicator?

 

[Jack6591]

Sorry if this is a silly question...

With the almost certain run-up that will happen in the stock over the next month or two, why aren't MMs buying up shares to sell at a high in 1-3 months?

I understand that shorts have a constant belief that the stock is on its way to zero and therefore it doesn't get better than selling at these levels, but it would seem like everyone else should be positioning for a rally!!

America’s partisan divide is the line in North America where the rivers of common sense flow in opposite directions.

JB Leonard

 

[Artful Dodger]

Because it wasn't germane to the body construction costs comparison? The F150's engine and transmission construction costs weren't included in his estimate either. It was strictly about vehicle body construction costs.

Lol, ICE powertrains are commodity items, readily available.

Tesla next gen batteries, and the capacity to build them at scale, does not exist.

That's what Sandy is ignoring. It's like Leonardo DaVinci building statues out of carbon fibre.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

From Teslarati Tesla to expand Fremont production lines for Model Y

In the past, GA 4.5 was also responsible for the production of the Model 3 sedan in late 2018. GA 4.5 is effectively an outdoor tent that Tesla placed outside of the main building. It currently holds five production lines, with the most recent being installed in September 2019. Tesla planned to expand GA 4.5 in April 2020 but had to find solutions to handle stormwater drainage.

The applications are named “4.5 Expansion Rev 1” and “F20-0048-F DCM2 Arch & MEP.” DCM2 could refer to a second die-cast machine in GA 4.5 that will allow the Model Y to be manufactured with a single-piece casting design.

 

[ZeApelido]

TMI: Tesla is operating around 2x QQQ today with a 0.72 correlation

 

[Tim S]

Sorry if this is a silly question...

With the almost certain run-up that will happen in the stock over the next month or two, why aren't MMs buying up shares to sell at a high in 1-3 months?

I understand that shorts have a constant belief that the stock is on its way to zero and therefore it doesn't get better than selling at these levels, but it would seem like everyone else should be positioning for a rally!!

Some people think we already had the run-up (900s to 1500s in 2 weeks).

Most people here (myself included) think we still have room to run higher due to a profitable Q2 leading to S&P inclusion. Also Q3 and Q4 will be huge (barring a COVID disaster).

 

[Tslynk67]

Some people think we already had the run-up (900s to 1500s in 2 weeks).

Most people here (myself included) think we still have room to run higher due to a profitable Q2 leading to S&P inclusion. Also Q3 and Q4 will be huge (barring a COVID disaster).

Indeed, maybe Q2 and S&P is a bit baked in after the last couple of weeks, but the 150k deliveries in Q3 will totally flabbergast the market and the $1b profit (number straight from my sphincter, but maybe, eh?) will have them soiling their breeches.

 

[jbcarioca]

The UK has gone months without coal use, there is still lots of gas used in electricity generation, more gas is used in industrial process heat, and a bit of gas for home (hot water) heating.

Sorry for my error. I knew better but lost my mind somehow. Equating coal with fossil fuel is a really bad type one error.

Corrected.

 

[dc_h]

My guess is that it means faster transport. The ship can move up to full speed right away, instead of cruise slowly past the golden gate bridge AND bay bridge (which might pose some height restrictions as well). Plus the question of draft depth - as the bay may be too shallow in some places to permit a car-transport ship safely through.

I believe they do container shipping from Oakland. Smaller loads for Australia, New Zealand and S and X cars are usually shipped in containers. I also think the bridge from Fremont to pier 80 is pretty close and probably closer then the Oakland harbor location. I don't know local traffic well enough to know how the miles translate, but my experience around Oakland and east bay is worse then west of the bay.

 

[engle]

This just crossed the wire: (it is so short there is nothing to excerpt from it)

"No coronavirus risk to Tesla's Elon Musk after meeting with Oklahoma governor -spokesman
REUTERS 10:48 AM ET 7/15/2020

Symbol Last Price Change
TSLA 1499.2 -17.6 (-1.16%)
QUOTES AS OF 01:55:54 PM ET 07/15/2020
July 15 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc(TSLA) Chief Executive Elon Musk and other Tesla employees are not at risk of having contracted the novel coronavirus after a July 3 meeting with Oklahoma's governor, who said on Wednesday he had tested positive for the virus, a spokesman for the governor said.

"There is no risk to any Tesla employees from the July 3 visit," Charlie Hannema, a spokesman for Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt said in a statement, adding an additional meeting with Tesla executives on Monday was conducted virtually over Zoom. (Reporting by Tina Bellon in New York Editing by Chris Reese)"

I hope Elon starts wearing a mask and keeps social distance if he's not doing it already. He's been very cavalier about Covid-19. IMHO he is a significant % of the market cap.

I've noticed the price tends to be higher first thing in the morning. Is this Robinhood neophytes placing orders overnight that are bunched up then? Also, what's with the people happy to overpay during pre-market every day recently?

If we close >= $1,500 today I will be very happy since it is like a new floor (trading range) prior to earnings on 7/22.

On a personal note: I spent the past few days swapping all but 34 shares out of my wife's Keogh (fully taxable if ever withdrawn) by sell/buy moving the rest of it into 4 tax-free Roth IRAs, and selling then buying all the Roth holdings into the Keogh account. Fidelity's Active Trader Pro(R) "multi-trade" screen allowed me to sell 20 names at a time out of the Roths to raise capital to buy the equivalent TSLA. We still have low hundreds in some normal accounts, but they are just capital gains taxes so not as painful if we ever sell any of them. This exercise avoids doing a "Roth IRA conversion" which incurs ordinary income tax here in the U.S. (ouch!) in the year you do that. What I don't like about it is it resets the cost basis for all the securities that were in the Roths now in the Keogh, not to mention all the TSLA shares that are now in the Roths. I will have to use Quicken to track this now.

Over the weekend I built a spreadsheet the combines the weights and names in ARKK, ARKF, ARKG, ARKQ and ARKW as of 7/10/2020. That is 111 unique names not counting one that only trades in S. Africa. I also excluded TSLA and a few names I already have. Then I used my spreadsheet to calculate the correct number of shares by weight and I bought them all(!) into an IRA I rolled over that was just invested in an S&P 500 for many years prior. I didn't do this to avoid the annual ARK fee - I did it to make it easy to see which names grow and which ones wither over time... Inbox me if you would like a link to the Google Sheet.

 

[The Martian]

OT
Posted this in the Electric airplane thread. We are in Arizona for a few days....
Currently an unconfirmed rumor that Elon is looking for or has purchased property near the airport at Lake Havasu City, Arizona for construction/ testing of aircraft. Source seems to be honest/ truthful.
Thoughts?

Wondering if it will be under Tesla or SpaceX if true.

 

[kanweg]

If we revisit the Friday event, can someone make porridge of it now?
Why the rush to buy the stock, with the SP now being much lower? Of course looking into the future is hard, but starting a purchasing frenzy doesn’t help to buy cheaply, I’d think.