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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
shlokavica22
Member
So the overall result is that they have one weapon taken away from their arsenal. And without it, the stock regains ground, especially when the "short attack" is based on pure FUD. Today's action however shows different picture, don't you think?
Changed the emphasis for you, to clear it up. Q3 profit *is* the tiny profit. And they’re selling similarly specced cars as Q3, but likely going to end with more in transit.
Indeed, occasional layoffs appear to have become Elon's standard modus operandi for cutting chaff and motivating the rest at both Tesla and SpaceX. As has been noted following the last Tesla layoffs, even more workers were soon hired to replace those who had been let go.
Meanwhile, laborers were added for the temporary tent needed to bump up production before the tax credit began phasing out, as were staff at Tesla stores to support the end-of-year delivery push. Now those needs have been greatly reduced as production at the main building is apparently increasing due to more robotic assemblers with less need for human workers, and store personnel can deliver cars at a more moderate pace.
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I don't know about others, but I've interpreted today's price action as one or more major buyers and one or more major sellers, each only slowly buying / selling, and thus reaching a relative equilibrium that only fluctuated based on the actions of third parties.
The sudden change in pattern I interpret as one or more major buyers having hit their acquisition targets.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Went below $310, kicking off a 100k+ order. Will have to see if that support holds.
Elon lowered expectations for both Q4 and Q1(just like he lowered them for Q3 with his e-mail saying the last day would be a make or break day). Tesla is in a much better position now to surprise positively for both quarters.
shlokavica22
Member
The bottom line is that there are more sellers than buyers. The real question is who does the selling- shorts or longs. I hope we see data from Igor before Tuesday.
I think the share price drop is due to his warning for ruff road ahead.
He has used that tone many times before. This time he used many vague words such as tiny, luck, to emphasize the risk many of us already know.
Yes, that's the bottom line, but not a reason for such a long, persistent SP at high volume. The fewer the number of parties that are responsible for the majority of the volume, the easier a steady-state is to establish.
IMHO.
I think the main thing the market doesn’t like or understand from the letter was,
“This quarter [Q1] as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit.”
Layoffs could of been shrugged off, even might of sent the stock up. Q4 not as good as Q3, some minor selling. Why, though, great difficulty, effort and luck for (maybe) a tiny profit this quarter? Kind of clashes with where we thought the company is for no apparent reason.
Just occurred to me, this might be due to Q1 including some downtime for S/X production in order to make changes for the battery packs, and/or some hiccups already showing up in doing this.
At 2K S/X per week, $100K ASP, and 30% gross margins, 3 weeks of production taken out of the quarter would be a $180 million hit to earnings. That would make Q1 look tiny next to Q3 & Q4, and, with the risk of losing more than 3 weeks, and/or risks of shipments of 3s for China and Europe possibly having hiccups in getting to perhaps thousands of customers before Q1 ends, some luck involved in not sliding into a loss for the quarter.
This would be consistent with Tesla not giving a reason for the “tiny profit” guidance ... they do not want consumers to know the S/X offerings are being upgraded. It would seem there would need to be a pretty good reason to not include some sort of explanation with what was a considerable downgrade of expectations for Q1 and was ambiguous about future quarters being impacted as well.
Of course, there’s also the dropping of the 75 kWh S/X we already know about which already hinted that they are about to upgrade the offerings.
“This quarter [Q1] as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit.”
Layoffs could of been shrugged off, even might of sent the stock up. Q4 not as good as Q3, some minor selling. Why, though, great difficulty, effort and luck for (maybe) a tiny profit this quarter? Kind of clashes with where we thought the company is for no apparent reason.
Just occurred to me, this might be due to Q1 including some downtime for S/X production in order to make changes for the battery packs, and/or some hiccups already showing up in doing this.
At 2K S/X per week, $100K ASP, and 30% gross margins, 3 weeks of production taken out of the quarter would be a $180 million hit to earnings. That would make Q1 look tiny next to Q3 & Q4, and, with the risk of losing more than 3 weeks, and/or risks of shipments of 3s for China and Europe possibly having hiccups in getting to perhaps thousands of customers before Q1 ends, some luck involved in not sliding into a loss for the quarter.
This would be consistent with Tesla not giving a reason for the “tiny profit” guidance ... they do not want consumers to know the S/X offerings are being upgraded. It would seem there would need to be a pretty good reason to not include some sort of explanation with what was a considerable downgrade of expectations for Q1 and was ambiguous about future quarters being impacted as well.
Of course, there’s also the dropping of the 75 kWh S/X we already know about which already hinted that they are about to upgrade the offerings.
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myt-e-s-l-a
Member
Timber! tsla below $310. doesnt look good for next week with MLK holiday.
When a stock loses ~37 points, "downgrades are coming!" (GOT saying)
When a stock loses ~37 points, "downgrades are coming!" (GOT saying)
Notably, his statement for Q4 was that it would be profitable but probably not quite as much so as Q3. Last we saw, consensus for Q3 was somewhere around 3/5 the EPS vs Q3. There’s a lot of room in there to both match Elon’s statement and be a massive beat over expectations.
Now this is where I feel most cheated, I was really looking forward to a big fight with the SP around 350 today. It's like the Cup Final got cancelled. Me disappointed
After review of the past 8 pages of comments, I don't believe anyone has asked the obvious question...
Why did he announce this now, just 2 weeks before ER? Why not wait for ER?
IMO, some really good news is about to come out in ER and they don't want it buried by this.
Disagree, employees need this to stay and he needs a solid pop this quarter for convertible notes. He knows they are trying to cut this off so he has to pay in cash vs stocks. Folks, this is all about making sure SP get's back well above $360.
And again, as some have said, it's more about cash flow. Possibly a bear trap as well. SP might even go lower before Feb to catch even more bears.
Why did he announce this now, just 2 weeks before ER? Why not wait for ER?
IMO, some really good news is about to come out in ER and they don't want it buried by this.
Disagree, employees need this to stay and he needs a solid pop this quarter for convertible notes. He knows they are trying to cut this off so he has to pay in cash vs stocks. Folks, this is all about making sure SP get's back well above $360.
And again, as some have said, it's more about cash flow. Possibly a bear trap as well. SP might even go lower before Feb to catch even more bears.
"This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit."
This quarter, as of time he's speaking = Q1. "as with Q3" = a different quarter from the current.
Reference to Europe/Asia in no way can be interpreted as Q3.
Also, Q3 profit was small, not tiny:
"While small by most standards, I would still consider this our first meaningful profit in the 15 years since we created Tesla."
This quarter, as of time he's speaking = Q1. "as with Q3" = a different quarter from the current.
Reference to Europe/Asia in no way can be interpreted as Q3.
Also, Q3 profit was small, not tiny:
"While small by most standards, I would still consider this our first meaningful profit in the 15 years since we created Tesla."
shlokavica22
Member
Now this is where I feel most cheated, I was really looking forward to a big fight with the SP around 350 today. It's like the Cup Final got cancelled. Me disappointed
I guess looking at NVDA's action today will somewhat negate this disappointment
anthonyj
Stonks
Elon is a master of 4d chess so it wouldn't surprise me. The way he worded the letter made the situation seem a lot worse than it is. I think this was done purposely.
2 weeks worth of payroll for 7% of total workforce is a lot of $. I'm glad he's setting realistic expectations that Q1 may have the tiny profit...
Hate to say this, but I want Elon to get his developer hat back on and sit 24/7 with the FSD team and focus on that for a provable coast-coast demo even if it's got flaws that would be huge!
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