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  1. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Rob Mauer said on his stream this is due to taxes Tesla had to pay on the big compensation payout (to Elon presumably), which he took as a one time issue… ie, at surface quick glance looks bearish but understanding the reason & its one-time nature, a non issue.
  2. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What I do like about Ark’s model is that it has a massively wide array of outcomes as I see so many variables impacting how FSD/Robotaxi plays out that I am skeptical anybody can forecast accurately, let alone how those many variables will interact with each other FSD/RT is almost certainly...
  3. SteveG3

    Speculative Tesla owned Uber-like service impact on Tesla's Mission and Valuation?

    Saw a YouTube video today taking the $50k Elon suggested FSD might sell for and multiplying that by 20 Million vehicles as potential 2030 annual production. Add software profit margins, and there you have about $750B in profits in 2030 from FSD. I’ve seen this and similar enthusiasm...
  4. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    if correct, yes, over 1 million vehicles in 2021 would seem well beyond market expectations that said, looking at a couple of descriptions to me it is unclear whether this is a reference to the targeted capacity run rate to be hit at some point in 2021 or the total 2021 production targeted a...
  5. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    yup, it’s been a while, so Elon’s thinking may of changed, but for several years he basically said all are welcome to join in as long as they cover the cost of their proportion of the usage. ie, Tesla’s previous comments were tied to the mission, and would result in the network expanding in...
  6. SteveG3

    SpaceX investor's thread

    wondering if you have been invited to buy proportionately more in subsequent rounds to the one your shares came from (“pro rata” if I’ve picked up the lingo correctly)?
  7. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    please read what I wrote again. if there is a liquidity issue, it gets less exposed in Friday's MOC. it seems quite clear to me that there are advantages to the index funds to keep out of public view the scale of any shortfall of shares available to them on Friday's closing cross.
  8. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    fwiw... Had an idea after noticing something in Rob Mauer's video yesterday. From about 8:30 into the video Rob does a 2 minute review of when dark pool (or ATS) trades need to be reported. Towards the end of that two minutes he shows a chart from FINRA, and sums up that basically from 8am to...
  9. SteveG3

    SpaceX investor's thread

    Elon tweets “this is incorrect” in response to Teslarati article titled “SpaceX looks to double its valuation as Starlink and Starship programs accelerate” https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1339431094274433024
  10. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    A question I've seen come up a few times over the past few weeks, including here on TMC, is how will the upcoming index funds required holding of TSLA on an ongoing basis impact TSLA's price from a supply and demand perspective. If we could isolate the increase in TSLA's share price due...
  11. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    it could be, wondering if CNBC had more harsh spin than recent norm. for several years virtually all their on air employees were very harsh, but at some point this year, it seems like at least half of them are much more measured re Tesla. fwiw, that’s just based on Tesla clips they post, I...
  12. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’ve been watching to see if we get a substantial uptick in FUD as a possible clue that some kind of substantial effort to limit TSLA’s move up, or even reverse it for a time, is in motion. Was CNBC spinning the discussion in a harsher light than their recent norm (beyond the narrative itself...
  13. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    thanks jw. it is quite interesting. there's also two 5.2 million spikes Friday, one at 4:02, and one at 4:26. that's a total of 18 million shares, if they represent the same suspected process. have never seen this brought up before, @jw934, I'm not disagreeing with you, but, I am curious...
  14. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    thanks for posting this I just went over to CNBC’s site, but couldn’t figure out where to spot the 7.4 million shares at 4:00. Maybe you could help me find it? Would be interesting to watch for closing cross volume the coming days.
  15. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thanks for sharing this Mike, I'd not heard of PAVE before. Their choice of communications director sure sounds consistent with your take on their mission (derailing Tesla's autonomous vehicle program). If you have a little time, please share some of what has most strongly led you to the...
  16. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don’t think the following is the most likely scenario, but, it is something the S&P might be able to do to reverse some of this run up with far lower risk of lawsuits and less of a reputational hit than changing to two quarters... Announce that due to the volume of feedback on this...
  17. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    agree, future is extremely likely to be so very bright for Tesla. I'm still 35% TSLA at the moment... but, not the 80-100% TSLA that I was when I felt very, very confident that we were within 5-7 years of a 5-10X for TSLA. I see Tesla as still on track for that kind of explosive growth, but...
  18. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    thanks, and yup, passed 100X in core shares last week
  19. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    yup. I know it’s not often available but Spacex is one of the ideas I’m looking at.
  20. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    at $720, or $3600 pre-split would be 25% of my assets. a bit over 35% at the moment. I am looking at some alternatives. They don’t need to be homeruns, but there’s a couple I think could be. Would require pre-IPO access. Investment isn’t all about maximizing returns for me at this point...
  21. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    the shareholders you refer to *who are still confident we are undervalued* I include in the HODL group.
  22. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tying to my sense of the S&P event (nobody really knows, but I think the music stops somewhere between $600 and $850), in the context of my valuation of Tesla (again, as little as a double and as much as a 10X over the next decade are about the limits of what I think there’s a reasonably...
  23. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    As it turns out, my view is that every point in that first group, how Tesla’s addition is unique or atypical, are attributes that likely add to any upswing TSLA was going to have due to the addition. Theres one item I think is important (and counterintuitive) re TSLA that is typical of S&P...
  24. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    my two cents on this run from $408 since the S&P announcement main points I’m aware of that are different about Tesla being added to S&P than what is typical for an add - largest absolute dollar amount of an S&P add is (roughly $60-70B for tracking funds, could be more or less for...
  25. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think they’ll get some of that, and I think the design is attractive, particularly the removable roof. I don’t know that it has the “bad ass” aura enough to be an “it” vehicle in a big way for a large segment of the demos you mentioned.
  26. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    you may want to watch this video first hand. Dr Campbell, a PHD, has over 735k subscribers to his medicine focused YouTube channel, and that’s not on the back of his youth or good looks, lols. anyway, the man focuses on data, and provides reasoned analysis from there. he provides links to all...
  27. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    emphasis added
  28. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    was not specifically directed at the two of you, nothing to discuss about it, because that wasn't what it was. on the prior page "I was giving everyone involved in that argument about HCQ a timeout, without putting a bunch of individuals in separate corners" - ggr
  29. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    I don't think it's helpful to putting this behind us if I comment on specific individuals' postings on this issue. What's more, ggr never said his/her decision to freeze was specifically about the interactions of the two posters you mentioned anyway. Do I think there have been caustic comments...
  30. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    ggr's last post just above was agreeing with TEG's comment that a "keep it civil folks" note from the mods inserted into the discussion just gets ignored. I think that's a pretty good indicator that the 12 hour freeze wasn't simply to spare us running in circles, but, to let people cool down...
  31. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    will come back to answer the other posts prior to my last post, but quickly re the claims of 320,000 patients on HCQ and Azith. with only 1/10,000 cardiac fatalities. yes, the Newsweek op-ed by the PHD/MD Yale epidemiologist with over 325 published papers was where I found the claim. yes...
  32. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    thanks Papafox that’s becoming more and more apparent. the intellectually dishonest tactics of “people say,” ad hominems, and gross mischaracterization of my statements in lieu of considering the data I share and sharing data in turn in response to collaborate on refining our understanding have...
  33. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    why are you turning to false ad hominems rather than data? I’ve always used “claims” re Zelenko as I specifically began my mentioning of his claims with the note that his paper has not been peer reviewed to date. where do you find even a hint of my framing Zelenko as a hero? why are you...
  34. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    if that is the case in a global pandemic, I hope more people become aware of the skewing effect of the profit motive on our global health. that said, HCQ is a generic drug of nil cost, yet it’s been studied, perhaps quercetin, etc have a shot of being studied.
  35. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    see above reply to JRP. agree we need better studies. specifically better studies designed to control for those variable and including an HCQ arm with zinc. if we have specific data on what percent of patients in each group received steroids, we can make a better assessment as to whether the...
  36. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    I do not consider discerning between efficacy of dosing X of a medication and dosing 2X to be cherry picking data. if you can share a preponderance of data at the dosing Zelenko & HF used showing no efficacy, that would be disappointing, but useful information to know. please reply with data...
  37. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    we’re in agreement re wanting to see better studies. don’t know if we have specific data from the study on the flaws you brought up... ie, what percent of patients in each group used steroids, what percent of the non treatment group had cardiac issues. would like to see the specifics on that...
  38. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    see my prior replies. I still think it is far more likely then not that at the right RX, with zinc, at the first stage of the disease, HCQ is a powerful tool vs corona. if quercetin or some other option is even more effective, or as effective with lower adverse events, etc, let’s switch to that...
  39. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    please see prior reply
  40. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    HCQ doesn’t appear “very toxic” (see the Newsweek op-ed from an MD/PHD who I quoted on this topic above), but, if quercetin or EGCG are as effective and less toxic, let’s use them to the extent they are available and ramp up supplies of them if the data holds up.
  41. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    thanks. so, in fact, about two weeks ago some encouraging data on fatalities did come out in Remdesivir subsequent to the original data a couple of months back. excellent! we can use anything that will help. this data does not do better than the 50% fatality reduction in the HF study or the...
  42. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    See above reply.
  43. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    in your point 1) you wrote that there is a 20:1 ratio of studies showing HCQ and AZTH has no positive impact for all spectrum of disease, setting aside zinc for what you wrote in point 2). you left out the third variable I’ve seen regularly in the studies that did not show a positive impact for...
  44. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    I’m not aware of even ANY claims of remdesivir reducing fatality rates. what I saw was it reduced number of days to recovery for hospitalized patients. perhaps there’s been further remdesivir data re fatalities, but I think it would have been all over the media and I’d of seen it. maybe I...
  45. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    I mentioned two studies one, the Henry Ford health system study (HF), was a 2,500 patient peer-reviewed published study. it showed a 50% reduction in fatalities for the HCQ group. these were hospitalized patients who began treatment within 48 hours of admission. zinc was not used. would be...
  46. SteveG3

    Coronavirus

    Papafox nailed the main points, 2X the dosage of the Henry Ford HS 2,500 patient peer reviewed study (and 2X dosage of Zelenko’s claimed results with 141 patients in pre-print as well), and no inclusion of zinc. What’s more, this new study not showing improved outcomes was in hospitalized...
  47. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    thanks for the clear-eyed reply Stealth. by that I mean, your recognizing both Tesla's enormous distance from the rest of the field, and, yet, the real possibility that when they actually have the right alliance with auto incumbents to do this properly, they might move faster than Tesla has for...
  48. SteveG3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    thanks cliffski I agree traditional automakers are not at all likely to venture into this on their own. if I have it correct that a neural network approach requires real world miles on something like the scale Tesla is using, than even the big tech companies like Google, Apple, Intel, Nvidia...