Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Navin]

lols, there is quite a bit more to this


1) Chanos is an adjunct Prof on that Yale School of Management faculty Sonnenfeld is on.

James Chanos

2) The third person (in addition to Linette and Sonnenfeld) on that CNBC smear Elon panel, Bethany McLean,

pretty massive Chanos connection, including helping Chanos get his Fairfax narrative into Fortune Magazine. from NY Magazine,



“Reporters, too, have a vested interest in cultivating short-selling sources. When a short-seller uncovers fraud, it often translates into the sort of epic story that can make a business reporter’s career. After Chanos tipped Bethany McLean, then at Fortune, to the problems at Enron, she landed a $1.4 million book deal and an Oscar-nominated documentary, and she recently was hired as a contributing editor at Vanity Fair. McLean and Nocera recently nabbed a reported seven-figure book deal chronicling the fall of Wall Street.”

and

“Of all the journalists whom Chanos deals with, McLean—a former Goldman analyst turned financial writer—maintains a special relationship with Chanos that is the subject of lore and jealousy among rival business writers. At Fortune, McLean wrote features about the Australian bank Macquarie and Fairfax Financial—both companies on which Chanos had significant short positions. Through McLean, Chanos had access into the pages of Fortune.”


The Catastrophe Capitalist

Wow. That’s a great addendum. So obvious what’s going on here it’s both sad and funny.

 

[StealthP3D]

Spotted on Twitter...

View attachment 420368 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1446440/000117266119001322/0001172661-19-001322-index.htm

Value: 420

No, that position is from the first quarter (3/31/2019)

 

[Curt Renz]

Is max pain website hacked??/
(If not a few folks are fainting, or climbing to the 14th floor aka "Steely Dan" 'when black friday comes'
Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com
View attachment 420398

I've found this site to be more reliable for Max Pain: Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

 

[dakh]

I would think so too - can't marge individual NNs.


We don't know that. It is possible there is only one set of NNs that is being cross compiled on all HW versions.

Otherwise - not sure how he shadow mode would work (or gathering data ?).

Not sure what are you guys talking about. Maybe my understanding is too simplistic. You can call predict/infer from your good old imperative program. There are multiple models deployed either on the old GPU based box or the new specialized silicone. Depending on what features you enable in the imperative part, certain models might or might not be used for inference. For example, they talked about putting special models in to be able to catch specific interesting corner cases or specific object classes and send images back.

 

[Hock1]

Completely agree. If you are short and trying to destroy a company, it should be public knowledge. Or if a fund manager trashes another comapny, you should be able to check wether he's short or not.

Yeah. Operative word being "should"!.

 

[Creekstalker]

I bet you a signed dollar his limited partners are actual lobbyists or types of players who are less concerned about financial performance and more concerned about pushing an agenda with Spiegel as a fund manager.

I've always figured he comes from a wealthy family and he manages some of Dad (STANley) and Mom's (PHYLlis) money.

 

[Boomer19]

Wow. That’s a great addendum. So obvious what’s going on here it’s both sad and funny.

yeah. he and mclean worked on the enron thing together too. she helped him take them down. they were even on the same documentary about it ‘enron, the smartest guys in the room’

 

[Prunesquallor]

yeah. he and mclean worked on the enron thing together too. she helped him take them down. they were even on the same documentary about it ‘enron, the smartest guys in the room’

Where were they with Theranos?

 

[Maitri982]

I think GM is at serious risk of lawsuits over the claims they made before they raised billions of dollars from Cruise Automation. They said they were 'quarters away' from launching a commercial service. A year or two later they're nowhere remotely close to launching anything. They were obviously lying about the state of their technology.

A man dies and a being tells him he has two options. They first take him to heaven where people are very somber and sedate and calm, but don't appear to be having fun. They then take him to hell where people are partying it up with sex and drinks and all manner of indulgences.

They ask him where he wants to go and he says gleefully: "I'll take hell for sure!". So they transport him to hell and when he gets there he immediately begins to be tortured and burned and suffers greatly. He then sees the being who showed him the two options and asks why he didn't get what he saw and the being answers:

"That was the demo."

Cruise and many others have dazzled very stupid people with their demo and convinced them to part with billions of $$$$.

 

[Maitri982]

A short squeeze might or might not realize in 2019 (Q3 is a significant hurdle), but it's highly misleading to calculate short covering capacity of the market by using the daily volume:

• Firstly, there's been several short squeezes already: last June and last October were examples of ~50% up-moves in TSLA, in significant part fueled by short covering. So to claim that Tesla short squeezes are a myth is simply false.
  
• 80% of the daily volume is bots trading with bots, trying to front-run and to pick pennies. The overwhelming majority of HFT and algorithmic trading entities go flat at the end of the day, i.e. they close whatever short or long positions they have opened. They have no effect on net long or short positions and offer no real liquidity for shorts to use to cover.
  
• Long-term trading volume is 11 million shares per day according to Yahoo Finance (TSLA). While there are 15m+ days, there are also ~7m shares traded days - the average is 11 million shares per day. The 20% "true liquidity" of that is only 2.2 million shares of net accumulation/distribution power, on average.
  
• If all of those shares are investors selling to shorts so that they can cover, then it takes about 20 trading days or about 1 calendar month to cover the 46 million shares sold short.
• But during any short squeeze covering shorts will have to compete for liquidity with new investors who are seeing the up-move and the improvement in sentiment - both opportunistic short-term ones and long-term investors. Every failed short thesis is an investor's promising bull thesis. Existing longs will also upgrade their price/profit expectations and will not sell at price levels favorable to shorts.
• If we assume that new investors compete with covering shorts on a 50%/50% basis then during the up-leg of a short squeeze liquidity becomes even thinner: only 1 million shares a day - 46 trading days and over 2 calendar months. This only stops once the up-move reaches price levels that many investors equate with an overheated price. Even today TSLA is far away from such price levels.
• But it gets even worse: the "Summer doldrums" in U.S. markets usually mark an about seasonal 15%-20% drop in liquidity. So if a short squeeze started today, they'd have even less liquidity to cover.

I.e. in practice the TSLA short trade is way overcrowded, and it will be largely bulls/longs who determine the price levels and timing when most of the 46 million shares short will be allowed out of their short positions: them trying to do it only drives up the price. Only longs have the shares they need to cover in any significant quantity.

A recently leaked analysis from Morgan Stanley estimated that around 75% of the selling below $200 levels came from short sellers. Such selling pressure is simply not sustainable, and the TSLA borrowing rate is increasing already.



Around 50% of the short position came in at price levels below $300. Should TSLA reach $300 again all those profits and the trading power will evaporate. I'd say shorts will be significantly weakened in their ability to control the TSLA price at $250 already.

I'd agree that a 2008 VW style "fast" short squeeze is unlikely, but if Tesla posts robust results and the macro sentiment doesn't deteriorate then a 1999 Qualcomm style or a 2013 Tesla style "slow" short squeeze is in play I think.

As @neroden said it recently: a short squeeze will eventually happen, but at a time when we are the least expecting it.

I think "something" worth two shoes will drop in 2019...then look out shorts.

 

[EVNow]

Where were they with Theranos?

They don't care about pvt companies.

 

[Navin]

The irony of being in the middle of a demand based squeeze on not really realizing it is almost priceless.

 

[dc_h]

The alleged message from Tesla reads like it was written by someone who doesn't speak English as a first language. I wonder if it's real.

I checked on the site and it is for real, no SR RWD. Maybe daddy dotcom wrote it?
FYI the implication is that batteries are still the bottleneck. Only selling SR+, and higher margin LR Dual and Performance, giving up some LR sales to increase pack volume. Good for volume and margins.

 

[Krugerrand]

I see the mood here has been shifting a bit with the current couple of weeks of SP rise.

Meh.

I’ll get out of my lounging pajamas and prick my ears when the SP is $350+ and rising like it is now forming that bull flag, Staten Island, gravy boat, butter dish or whatever it is the TA people need to see to be 99.999999% (is that enough 9’s??) sure we’re headed beyond $400. Until such time you can find me sipping some Sleepy Time tea, smoking a Havana and chomping on Quarter Pounders.

(Some of you lack a sense of humor.)

 

[dc_h]

Makes me proud of my Norwegian heritage!

Good to see but Canada is the new Norway this quarter. > for now.

 

[Intl Professor]

I've started a new thread:

FSD Computer Upgrade and Experience

Here's my first post.

"We purchased FSD with or M3 Long Range Premium AWD delivered in late September, 2018. Today I used the service function from my cell phone asking for an upgrade and installation of the new computer. After some detailed questions I was offered home garage installation on June 25th at a 2 hour window which I chose. (Other later dates and times were also offered.)

I'm 82 and a potential if not real danger on the road. The system as it is works well on our freeways at less than the mad max mode. Some anxiety provoking even so, and one time near a steep drop off without Autopilot on a narrow levee road I steered a bit close to the narrow shoulder and the car forcefully moved itself toward the center dividing line. Very impressive. Therefore, I look forward to even safer driving as the year progresses with the new hardware for Autopilot.

Very impressed they're going to do this at home."

Please feel free to post your experience with the new Autopilot.

 

[Intl Professor]

I see the mood here has been shifting a bit with the current couple of weeks of SP rise.

snip

(Some of you lack a sense of humor.)

You make up for it.

 

[Curt Renz]

I've always figured he comes from a wealthy family and he manages some of Dad (STANley) and Mom's (PHYLlis) money.

You may be right: https://www.mylife.com/stanley-spiegel/

 

[dc_h]

Completely agree. If you are short and trying to destroy a company, it should be public knowledge. Or if a fund manager trashes another comapny, you should be able to check wether he's short or not.

If your fund has lost 60% of its value since founding you probably need a sense of humor.

 

[dc_h]

its $420000/1500contracts = $280 per contract which makes 2.80 contract

They are 420 strike. He may have bought them cheap to hedge his short position.