Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thait84]

If you are itching to see what the futures market will open up at - there's a betting market that's open in the weekend.
Trade Weekend Wall Street | Live Weekend Wall Street Stock Index Price | Weekend Wall Street | IG UK

Should be reasonable indicator.

I think it is pretty meaningless. Not all smart players are trading and the volume is so low.

I didn't want to mark disagree without context.

 

[hacer]

OK, to be sure I took one more look at the definition of Max Pain. In no way does it work like a magnet(ic field), in fact it works in the opposite way:

The closer the current SP is to Max Pain, the less incentive the option writers have to move the SP towards Max Pain and the further away the current SP is from Max Pain, the more incentive the option writers have to move the SP towards Max Pain.

You don't even have to look at the definition. Just go to e.g. opricot.com, type in your favorite stock symbol (duh) and look at the bottom most graph. The area around Max Pain will typically have both the call and put gradient being almost flat (i.e. little change in losses as SP moves a given amount), whereas towards both the lower and upper price extreme the gradient there increases, indicating a more substantial difference in losses as the SP moves a given amount.

To get actual values for a specific example, just take today's graph for TSLA next week, where Max Pain is currently at 780$, with gains at that SP totaling ca. 138M$. Compare it to the SP at 760$ with gains 147M$, so a difference of 9M$ for moving the SP 20$. Compare to the SP being near this week's close at 670$, with gains at 278M$ and 20$ closer to Max Pain, i.e. 690$ with gains there at 236M$, i.e. a drop of 42M$. So the option writers would gain almost 5 times more money by moving the SP 20$ up to 690$, than 20$ up to Max Pain at 780$.

PS. Btw, next week will see almost 38k 100$-puts expire worthlessly...

Just want to explain my disagree. Your analysis assumes nothing is hedged. Market makers always hedge. Strikes that are far away from the current price are already fully hedged and so on expiration day they make no difference to the MM. Strikes near the trading price can have a rapidly changing delta so must be dynamically hedged, or in the alternative, the stock price itself can be driven instead.

 

[2virgule5]

Model 3 is simply dominating in North Jersey. See one every 20-30 seconds on Route 80

Wait till the new NJ bill with -$5k EV price reduction comes into effect...

 

[UCF3]

If you are itching to see what the futures market will open up at - there's a betting market that's open in the weekend.
Trade Weekend Wall Street | Live Weekend Wall Street Stock Index Price | Weekend Wall Street | IG UK

Should be reasonable indicator.

So down a percent or two. I figured with only one death on the weekend we would actually be green on Monday. The news that China is almost back up and running seems to be getting overlooked

 

[JBRR]

I think it is pretty meaningless. Not all smart players are trading and the volume is so low.

I didn't want to mark disagree without context.

Prediction markets are generally smart enough. If this market was consistently off, someone would come in an arbitrage that until it wasn't.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Perspective...

https://thereformedbroker.com

View attachment 516706

That’s an encouraging trend. However, what the chart also shows is that for the short term we can probably expect another leg down. Most corrections in that chart consist of a sharp drop, followed by some rebound or consolidation and then another (less sharp) drop that sets a new low. From there on the uptrend resumes. So even though we will likely go higher in 2020 (barring a deep recession) we probably are not out of the woods yet.

Not an advice.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla has not even begin to make even a small dent in car sales here in the UK.

And this should be music to the ears of new TSLA investors. It's always better to get into an investment closer to the ground floor.

Widespread take-up here is limited by two factors:

1) Price
2) Charging points

Is it more difficult/expensive to install Level 2 residential charging at rural or suburbian lots in the UK than the US? I think people are pretty short-sighted to resist spending a bit of money on their personal electrical infrastructure considering the same people will often buy a $3K option for their new car that doesn't consist of much more than aesthetic differences. I've seen people on TMC balk at spending $1K on a home charging solution who didn't bat an eye at upgrading their Tesla to a different color at $1K (or more). With a little research, I was able to do a 60 amp (48 amp charging) self-install (driveway pedestal) at my cabin for less than $450 total (would have been $250 cheaper without the cedar shingles and copper roof). It would have been $500 more if I didn't get a free HPWC through the referral program. Pics here: Outside EV Charging Kiosk

2) Will, eventually be a limit, but 1) should go away as more people get used to seeing and hearing about the model 3. There is still an assumption here that a Tesla costs £100k (more like 70), and everybody driving one is a millionaire.

While it's obviously not true that all Tesla owners are millionaires, it does seem that perception is getting closer to the mark as the stock price rises!

Having said that, there is definitely a widespread understanding here that a tesla is the car you want, if you want an EV.

We are not too far away from the widespread understanding that Tesla is the car or truck you want if you want a car or a truck, EV or not! Ideally, you own TSLA stock before that point!

 

[wipster]

Good for us that it wasn’t called the “Tesla virus”

Don't give them any ideas...

 

[StealthP3D]

That’s an encouraging trend. However, what the chart also shows is that for the short term we can probably expect another leg down. Most corrections in that chart consist of a sharp drop, followed by some rebound or consolidation and then another (less sharp) drop that sets a new low. From there on the uptrend resumes. So even though we will likely go higher in 2020 (barring a deep recession) we probably are not out of the woods yet.

Based solely on the chart, I would say we never entered the woods!

It pays big dividends to take a step back from the daily ticker and to keep a closer eye on what the ticker tape represents overall. There's a reason a big parade is called a "Ticker-tape parade". It's because the output of the ticker tape machine was used as confetti. Because, after a day, it was useless garbage. It didn't matter anymore. Daily stock price changes don't matter in the long-term.

 

[kbeckley]

Toronto International Car Show Report (multiple posts)

The Toronto International Car Show is one of the bigger shows in North America and comes early in the year.

Overall Takeaway: This was NOT the year of the EV breakout. There were more EVs and they were more predominately displayed but everyone is still trying to hock ICE vehicles. I continue to be amazed the money that is spent at these shows. Attendance was brisk (temperatures in Toronto were cold that week and, well, what else can one do?). I found the folks manning the booths (who are often not even employees) to be widely unknowledgeable about EVs. Simple questions elicited blank stares or 'go to the website'.

Toronto has a 'Plug and Drive', a not-for-profit facility where consumers can go and test drive most of the EVs for sale in Canada (except Tesla's, who does not participate). Plug and Drive was prominent at the show offering EV test drives (in Toronto traffic).

Notable no-shows: Mercedes and Volvo. No booth for either of these companies. I do wonder about the future of these shows as there are a myriad of other ways to reach potential customers these days.

Dinosaurs (will they become extinct?): Subaru, Mazda, Acura, Lincoln, Infiniti, Lexus, Cadillac. These companies had no pure EVs in their booths and many of them didn't even have a hybrid. A few talked about having a concept car or a prototype...somewhere. 'EVs are not ready for the general public' said the Subaru guy. Subaru spent a ton of money with billboards everywhere even outside their booth.

Best of the rest: Kia, Hyundai. Each had 2(!) pure EVs in their booths. Hyundai even had an 'Electric Avenue'

Hyundai IONIQ (This might be the best competitor to the Model 3 for price & range - yes I know, the range...)

Hyundai Kona Electric on 'Electric Avenue'

Kia Soul EV (these sell decently well in Canada)

Kia Niro (Plug in Hybrid shown here)

Kia loses 1 point however for having a ICE SUV vehicle next to their 'electric vehicles' sign :

Ford was trying to sell trucks but did have a big mach-e display with an interesting(?) wireframe mustang:

Audi had the E-tron which is fine looking car in a sea of ICE cars.

The Chevy Bolt was much less prominent that last year. As far as I could see no mention of any other electrification plans from Chevy.

...continued to 2

 

[SpaceCash]

Good for us that it wasn’t called the “Tesla virus”

You know what's funny though, I was at the gym the other day (I don't watch TV at my house) and saw a commercial for some new pill named TESLA with a lot of drastic and dire side effects. The paranoid conspiratorial side of my brain went ape-sugar

 

[hacer]

I'm visiting my son in LA. Driving the freeways today I was actually surprised by how many non-Tesla cars are on the road. Despite all the sales in California, they have still barely tapped the market. Of course the rest of the country represents an even bigger opportunity. This makes me confident that they won't have a demand problems for decades. Looking forward to the post-virus climb, and will start leveraging up below 500 in the meantime.

I was at a conference in Burlingame in early Feb. and drove between San Jose and San Francisco a few times on the 101. I felt like I saw about the same percentage of Tesla's there as I do at home in Howard County Maryland, which is to say a lot (maybe 1 in every 25 cars). It surprised me because California has been described as having Tesla's everywhere. There is no doubt Tesla has plenty of room to grow sales in the U.S.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Prediction markets are generally smart enough. If this market was consistently off, someone would come in an arbitrage that until it wasn't.

I don't think that's quite right? If the prediction market is consistently off in the same direction, then yes, you could arbitrage. But if it is always off in a random direction and a random amount, how could you play it?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Based solely on the chart, I would say we never entered the woods!

It pays big dividends to take a step back from the daily ticker and to keep a closer eye on what the ticker tape represents overall. There's a reason a big parade is called a "Ticker-tape parade". It's because the output of the ticker tape machine was used as confetti. Because, after a day, it was useless garbage. It didn't matter anymore. Daily stock price changes don't matter in the long-term.

Stepping back to look at the general trend is always a good idea, the daily price changes are just noise. But if we did this then the thread would be much more boring, as we all enjoy the ticker tape parade.

 

[Buckminster]

Detailed photos of the interior of MY.
Tesla Model Y Interior Pictures and Info

 

[kbeckley]

...Toronto International Car Show Report 2

VW had their skateboard in the booth. I think VW is taking EVs seriously but not for the North American Market. Absolutely no mention of ID.3 or the ID family).

The E-golf was hidden behind the wall with the lovely family.

This was next to the e golf. Would it be churlish to ask why VW is paying for these chargers across Canada? OK let's.

Spoiler: Why is VW paying for chargers in Canada?

Dieselgate!

Porsche had 2 Taycans front and center. Beautiful cars.

I asked the rep if I could see the 'turbo' under the hood - but I was just being a jerk...

Jaguar i-pace did not have a plug next to or frankly much indication it was electric it which was really strange. Maybe they feel EVs are now 'normal' or they are not even trying.

Trucks. Trucks are still all about massive grills and testosterone. Absolutely not a word about electrification as far as I could see. Will they lose this race in the one segment that earns their profits? They have been warned.

The bigger the grill the bigger the...?

Toyota. So disappointing in this company. They has a lead with the Prius and have squandered it. They had all the Prius variants there but still not a pure EV Prius. The first Prius came to North America in 2001 - I owned one - and now almost 20 years later they have this:

There are exactly two (2!) of these in all of Canada. Hyundai also had a hydrogen car in their booth.

They showed a 2021 plug in hybrid RAV4 (a top selling SUV in Canada). Will 'up to' 60km of range in 2021 cut it?

 

[Fobble]

So down a percent or two. I figured with only one death on the weekend we would actually be green on Monday. The news that China is almost back up and running seems to be getting overlooked

That's exactly my opinion as well. Due to China's sheer high population, highly populated and high world's economy impacts, slowing down is a major relief
- I am confident that S. Korea with strong financial and strong healthcare system will overcome the spread soon. They even developed a drive thru test, so that the virus won't spread of get spread in the clinic.
- I don't think it's a concern in the US at all, at least at this point. The preparation is in place
- Italy shows some struggling, but I am sure they will prevail.
- IMO, major concerns should be directed to Iran, where death toll has climbed up quickly and on much higher infected/fatality rate. Not much of world's economy impacts, but it will cause panics for sure if things are out of control there.

 

[Cobbler]

$TSLAQ likes to talk about the small M3 inventory Tesla has, so I decided to check some E-tron inventory at the dealers by checking the Audi website in each country how many E-trons are available for immediate delivery:

Netherlands: 269
Belgium: 93
France: 136
Spain: 42
Poland: 28
Germany: 1186 (? I must've made a mistake? But scrolling through the list... ). And 210 used E-trons for sale

If you then check Autoscout24 (largest EU database for new/used cars), it shows 998 results for new /used E-trons already (509 new cars immediately available at dealers waiting)

Seems like very high inventory numbers for a car which had first delivery almost a year ago and is produced in low volume.
You could blame 'no batteries available from LG-chem' or 'Corona' as a reason, but the numbers don't add up.

Conclusion: demand for the E-tron is simply low?

 

[JBRR]

I don't think that's quite right? If the prediction market is consistently off in the same direction, then yes, you could arbitrage. But if it is always off in a random direction and a random amount, how could you play it?

A consistent mispricing can be arbitraged by agents who are better at pricing than the agents currently doing it.

Simple example:
Town A has a group of people estimating the time the sun comes up every day. The group gets paid proportionally to how close they get. Town A is always 30 minutes+ off in either direction.

Town B, same same except they are <10 minutes off every day.

During the weekend sunrise betting is closed in town B. They are free to go into town A and bet vs the people who are always 30+ minutes off.

How do you think Town B ppl spend their weekend when town A sunrise betting is open?

 

[kbeckley]

...Toronto International Car Show Report 3 (last one)

Honda had the clarity (also available - not really- in a hydrogen variant) and nothing else.

BMW had the Mini-e displayed prominently and the i3 (which is to be discontinued) but the main booth was particularly void of EVs except tucked at the back was this X3 plug in hybrid. Due next year...

Other notables. Mitsubishi had a plug in hybrid. Jeep had nothing (should be in the dinosaur section but they are differentiated by brand). Nissan had a huge wall with 'zero emissions' in huge letters and exactly 1 EV (the Leaf) in the booth. In fairness they have been improving the Leaf incrementally over the years but it was still a sea of ICE vehicles in the booth.

Tesla
Again Tesla was down stairs in the 'Exotica' section surrounded by Alfa Romeo, Lotus and the like.

Observations:

• Lowest key booth at the show. They could hardly have tried less.
• Booth was crowded.
• No Model Y! This is amazing seeing as first deliveries will be within a month of the show ending. They are trying really hard NOT to sell the Y. Model 3 anyone?
• Staff was knowledgeable of course but not heavy on the sales.
• Line up to get into the 3.
• Most under 30 know about Tesla. Everyone under 20 does.
• A few families dragged to the booth by their kids.
• X doors still continue to awe people.

Irony moment 1. Physically exactly opposite the Tesla booth was a pair of classic performance cars:

Every few hours they would dim the lights, start these cars, and to great fanfare rev the engines (to a plume of smoke despite the ducting) to incredibly loud noise levels. Across the sat the Performance S in silent smug contemplation.

Irony moment 2. Reflecting on the map I could not help but notice disruption Tesla is causing. Check out the show map:

I shaded the big 3 in in yellow. As of March 1 the market cap of 'tiny' Tesla was $122B. GM, Chrysler and Ford combined was $87B. Wonder what this map will look like in 5 or 10 years? The market believes it will be different.

Finally this was in the Ford booth:

It is still an amazing piece of engineering but just seems ridiculous now.

I believe that one of the next 3 years will see a big change in attitude and focus from the incumbents but there was no sign of it this year. They need to sell what they have I guess. Can they change in time?