Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Remus]

I think the biggest issue is that this seems to settle the demand issue - at least for North America. Is there sufficient consistent (not pull forward) demand for M3s at a price where Tesla can make a sustainable profit? Musk says no - at least not without pushing down costs and increasing volume at the same time.

Simple sustainable profit is never Tesla's goal. Or else they would be happily selling model S X there would be no model 3 on the roads.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I didn't read it all, but this is my question:
why Elon did not wait a week for this news?
He would have hurt the shorts with all the puts expiring worthless today... instead he hurt the (gambling) longs, probably pissing off some major investor who wrote those puts.
I don't know nothing, but it seems bad timing and self-inflicted.
There is something I don't understand?

It's the question I just raised... Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

My theory is a grand announcement is about to take place in this quarter. Bad news first, then more likely to pass $360 than if he waited 2 weeks and then it gets buried by layoffs and profits. My theory requires some great news in ER (or sometime in Q1) for this to work. Meanwhile, Elon is tweeting dictionary bable... as if not concerned.

There are too many grand announcements about to take place here as written. Pick one

1. FSD demos or cross-country on HW3
2. Margins even better in Q1.
3. Cashflow great with great plan to grow in 2019
4. Model Y or Semi or Truck
5. More...

 

[ggies07]

Even Andrea likes what Tesla is doing...

 

[Tslynk67]

I guess looking at NVDA's action today will somewhat negate this disappointment

Well yes, brings the small amount of NVDA I have back into play - I'm break-even on those again. Ideally need it up a bit more, TSLA down a bit more, then I can trade and get 3 TSLA for free.

I think the drop is oversold, by far. I mean how can Tesla issue a "profit warning" when they hardly ever make profit. In any case, we know they've plenty of cash in the bank, so even if they didn't actually turn a profit, as long as it's not huge losses, we're fine.

 

[Xpert]

So you're calling Elon an idiot? Then why now and not in 2 weeks? He was almost there already.

Strong language! Elon is never an idiot...maybe other than when he smoked weed on live TV and cost me a fortune.
I think he was simply taking advantage of a stock upswing to get the unavoidable negative news out of the way.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Quote of the Day.

"For most auto manufacturers, the cost-cutting would be received positively, but in Tesla's case, investors start to second guess whether demand is the real issue."

 

[Analyst007]

I will not even buy Tesla stock at 280 currently. With this news I wait until it hits 250 again.

 

[Nocturnal]

The bear articles are out in full force. Yikes.

 

[DurandalAI]

It's the question I just raised... Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

My theory is a grand announcement is about to take place in this quarter. Bad news first, then more likely to pass $360 than if he waited 2 weeks and then it gets buried by layoffs and profits. My theory requires some great news in ER (or sometime in Q1) for this to work. Meanwhile, Elon is tweeting dictionary bable... as if not concerned.

There are too many grand announcements about to take place here as written. Pick one

1. FSD demos or cross-country on HW3
2. Margins even better in Q1.
3. Cashflow great with great plan to grow in 2019
4. Model Y or Semi or Truck
5. More...

I agree. I anticipate Model Y announcement coinciding with Supercharger v3. The dropping of the referral program also ties into this. I think Elon knows that it's no longer needed in order to drive demand, with v3 supercharging coming, etc. Once SR Model 3 comes out, people such as myself who have been holding off on buying can buy... I anticipate February or March to be big.

 

[Singuy]

I think the biggest issue is that this seems to settle the demand issue - at least for North America. Is there sufficient consistent (not pull forward) demand for M3s at a price where Tesla can make a sustainable profit? Musk says no - at least not without pushing down costs and increasing volume at the same time.

Have problems with comprehension? You think 20k cars being transported for weeks is making Tesla any money? This week long shipment time is just growing pain but only happens once. Further shipment are constant so cars being delivered right now will be making money while new cars are being delivered. This 2-3 weeks lag have to filled some how.

But you can keep spitting out nonsense to continue your short narrative. People like you instill nonsense into people's head when you know exactly what is going on.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Strong language! Elon is never an idiot...maybe other than when he smoked weed on live TV and cost me a fortune.I think he was simply taking advantage of a stock upswing to get the unavoidable negative news out of the way.

So then what's the reason for doing it early? Your earlier argument was that he made the SP less likely to pass $360. Mine is that he made it MORE likely, unless he's that stupid.
The weed thing was a good move long term - next gen and free marketing about "Tesla makes an EV?."
We clearly have different strategies here. I buy and hold long, play a little on the ups/downs.
Buying some today, and more next week... unless I hear a better explanation?

 

[BaneBeater]

I think the real question now is "what's next?"

The layoffs in themselves aren't bad, but they are causing institutional investors to face some tough questions in their own portfolio reviews.

I think the biggest issue is that it doesn't seem like Tesla will have any new products in 2019. The Semi, Solar Roof, Model Y, Rodster, and pickup would all require factory development, which takes a long time.

With no new products likely in 2019, and a market cap that already puts Tesla as the most valuable automaker in the world, are the risks really worth the possible upside?

Look for hedge funds and other institutions scaling back on Tesla. I bet many will get back on board later this year.

 

[Nocturnal]

I agree. I anticipate Model Y announcement coinciding with Supercharger v3. The dropping of the referral program also ties into this. I think Elon knows that it's no longer needed in order to drive demand, with v3 supercharging coming, etc. Once SR Model 3 comes out, people such as myself who have been holding off on buying can buy... I anticipate February or March to be big.

It would be nice if he could release some good news to offset some of this in the meantime.

 

[SO16]

Have problems with comprehension? You think 20k cars being transported for weeks is making Tesla any money? This week long shipment time is just growing pain but only happens once. Further shipment are constant so cars being delivered right now will be making money while new cars are being delivered. This 2-3 weeks lag have to filled some how.

But you can keep spitting out nonsense to continue your short narrative. People like you instill nonsense into people's head when you know exactly what is going on.

I totally understand why people like curious sunbird do it. Shorts make a lot of money on fear and spreading what ultimately turns out to be BS time and time again.

What I don’t understand are why are there so many investors getting fooled by them still? Almost every single bear argument has either been debunked or goalposts moved. You’d think this would be a cried wolf moment and weak investors would wise up.

 

[NicoV]

Audi apparently targets to sell 2500 e-trons in Belgium this year (https://trends.knack.be/economie/be...erkopen-in-belgie/article-normal-1418519.html). Given that Tesla sold less than 1000 Model S/X in Belgium, that sounds awfully optimistic.
The e-tron is built in Belgium, so that might help sales a bit, but still...

 

[mrwuffles]

Notably, his statement for Q4 was that it would be profitable but probably not quite as much so as Q3. Last we saw, consensus for Q3 was somewhere around 3/5 the EPS vs Q3. There’s a lot of room in there to both match Elon’s statement and be a massive beat over expectations.

Do you mean consensus for Q4 is 3/5 (actually ~3/4) of Q3 EPS? If so, agree that there's some room for SP to go up and that's helpful to place Elon's email in context.

 

[EVNow]

I've no idea what's going to happen - tomorrow's Brexit vote can take NASDAQ down a percent or two. That can push Tesla another $15 down. At that point who is betting on not hitting $300 ?

@tivoboy. Ooops - didn't mean to jinx ! The way its going, won't be surprised if we go below 300 - though I don't expect to close below 300.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I think the real question now is "what's next?"

The layoffs in themselves aren't bad, but they are causing institutional investors to face some tough questions in their own portfolio reviews.

I think the biggest issue is that it doesn't seem like Tesla will have any new products in 2019. The Semi, Solar Roof, Model Y, Rodster, and pickup would all require factory development, which takes a long time.

With no new products likely in 2019, and a market cap that already puts Tesla as the most valuable automaker in the world, are the risks really worth the possible upside?

Look for hedge funds and other institutions scaling back on Tesla. I bet many will get back on board later this year.

Next week will be interesting. Some of the convert holders will be buying back their hedges and some people (full disclosure, including me) will find themselves unexpectedly short and will have to cover positions - those are positives. On the other hand, with a heavily retail stock like this you are likely to see a lot of margin calls, so that will be negative. At the very least we can predict a lot of volume!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Elon is a master of 4d chess so it wouldn't surprise me. The way he worded the letter made the situation seem a lot worse than it is. I think this was done purposely.

I had the same thought... overstated the news as if a BT.
I was about to buy more just now at $305, then it looked like it was going through that so lowered it to $301.
The only question for me is when to buy and how much. What a sale this is!

 

[Nocturnal]

I totally understand why people like curious sunbird do it. Shorts make a lot of money on fear and spreading what ultimately turns out to be BS time and time again.

What I don’t understand are why are there so many investors getting fooled by them still? Almost every single bear argument has either been debunked or goalposts moved. You’d think this would be a cried wolf moment and weak investors would wise up.

The demand argument is stupid. Let's say demand won't hit the same level as Q3...ok, that's still way higher than demand for any other comparable car. BMW, Mercedes etc. Model 3 doesn't require beating the Camry as #1 car in the US to make a steady profit.