Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[abasile]

Elon said on the Ride the Lightning podcast released last weekend that he had received zero inquiries from any other manufacturers about participating in the supercharger network

Bollinger Motors asked Elon via Twitter about using the SC network for their planned electric trucks: https://electrek.co/2018/08/17/bollinger-tesla-supercharger-network

And according to that article, Tesla has talked with other manufacturers about SC access. My interpretation is that there has been no serious interest on the part of major OEMs, and SC access would probably be too expensive for a small EV startup. I don’t believe that Supercharging user fees, even if all Tesla vehicles had to pay them, are nearly enough to cover the costs today - the network is subsidized by Tesla to sell cars.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Elon has left London. Netherlands and UK visit with no publicity, must be big news on the way.

 

[canoemore]

Yes I have read it and it is very disturbing. What I find more disturbing is that most of people don't care. I showed it to my siblings and they just laugh and make jokes, asking what I do about it. I point out that I do drive electric, cut down on meat and stop flying. That I live in a place where the vast majority of electricity is generated from and invest in companies developing alternative energy sources. They just laugh and say: Good on you, now let me drive my ICE"

I asked: "why don't you care that you and your children will be dead if you don't take action?" They answer they don't know and all they know is that they plan a nice flying trip for a couple of days to resort to pick up some sunshine and say the government or someone else must do it. They are just not bothered by it.

This all really saddens me.

I thought of this today and about the human psyche. What came to mind are the pictures of the trains with about 5,000 Jews arriving at Auschwitz to be terminated. It is known these people could have known what was to happen to them. If you look at the pictures there're just a handful of guards with machine guns. Considering the number of victims, you would think that - with a little coordination - they could take a couple of these guard out and grap the machine guns and set th m self free or at least try. But no, they just walked neatly in line to their deaths.

Is the above analogy also applicable to global warming? We know what is to happen but refuse to take action and just go straight to a catastrophe smiling, because they desperately need my short sun vacation now and definitely want a steak on the BBQ.

The only thing I can do is keep shouting what is going to happen and be a good example. It is hard...

So much global power - both geopolitical and economic - is derived from fossil fuels. At the end of the day, power is inevitably used to maintain and protect the source of that power. People/organizations don’t have power because they hold office (for the most part) - they hold office because they have power. Whether there’s some kind of cabal of actors that intentionally cultivates this power or whether it’s the organic outcome of market and social forces doesn’t really matter. Either way, it means that the only really comprehensive and sure-fire solution to a systemic problem like climate change is to make fossil fuels useless so that they’re no longer a source of power worth protecting.

I suppose I’m preaching to the choir here, but I didn’t get this until I started paying attention to Tesla (maybe reading Dune helped too…). I used to be more optimistic about the role of governments to mobilize resources for the effort to fight climate change, and I certainly still think they need to play a big role. It’s just that now I’m of the opinion that before we can mobilize those resources at the required scale, we need to take away the source of power from the folks currently standing in the way.

That’s why Tesla makes me so optimistic. It seems like the first effort that really strikes at the wellspring of the power that has set us on this course, and that has resisted any and all efforts to avoid the catastrophe that we now face.

 

[trentbridge]

There seems to be a perception that no other car manufacturer in the world is actually close to producing EVs.

---

No, we are all aware that there are countless announcements of impending BEVs from almost all manufacturers and /or joint ventures to build battery cell factories but nobody seems to have committed to either 300,000 annual output of the promised BEV or a Gigafactory capable of 25 gWh per year. This Tesla is already doing.

 

[EinSV]

Apple is reportedly looking to buy robotaxi start-up Drive.ai

Sounds like Project Titan's autonomous driving development must be going very well.

 

[Krugerrand]

So my hypothesis is that the Bolt was mainly a concerted attempt to sabotage the Model 3 with a combination of:

• Classic price dumping:
  • GM sold the Bolt ~$10,000 below cost
    
  • LG Chem gave GM a special battery modules deal of $140/kWh, well below production and market prices (they were super unhappy when this leaked - other OEMs were getting $200/kWh deals ...)
• Anti-Tesla PR directed at consumers and investors:
  • The infamous Chevy Bolt drive-by event of Fremont that mocked Tesla's manufacturing delays
    
  • Non-stop characterization of the Bolt by Wall Street and the complicit business media as a "Tesla killer"
  • Non-stop misleading tear-downs and bogus margin calculations suggesting that the Model 3 is not competitive and cannot generate a profit.
• GM hoped to not just cut off Tesla's air supply (demand in the U.S. sedan market), but also pressuring Tesla into making mistakes and trying to squeeze Tesla's source of funding. Note how there never was a SUV version of the Bolt...

Once GM and LG saw that these tactics aren't working (or rather, that they stopped working - these measures certainly had a damaging effect and reduced demand as well), once they saw that the Model 3 is crushing the Bolt and now that Tesla has a $35k car out there that is superior to the Bolt in everything including price, GM quietly started de-emphasizing it: it's cheaper for GM to buy the regulatory credits from Tesla directly than to burn the money on more Bolts produced...

I believe the Bolt was never anything else, and the dealership shenanigans to further sabotage even the Bolt were on top of it - because that's what dealerships do. Both GM and LG knew that the economic basis for the Bolt is not there, that it's an expensive lie, that it was purely a force-financed move to choke Tesla in their home market. GM's primary response, modus operandi and 100 years old corporate history in North America against major competitive threats is to attack the economic basis of the competition with any method available, not to out-innovate them. GM will innovate only if every other measure fails, because R&D is the most expensive and riskiest of methods to compete.

If they truly want to compete with Tesla they'll have to do it the hard way, grounds up - not via a repurposed production line of ~$20k ICE vehicles.

I think you nailed that. All those headlines proudly proclaiming how GM was first to market with an affordable (35k - AFTER incentives), 200 mile EV and how that was going to kill the Model 3.

Oh, the angst that happened here and the arguments how Tesla had screwed up preannouncing the specs of the 3 and getting beat to market. Another I told you so moment for those of us who knew how it was going to turn out.

And yet, still. So many people with so many doubts about Tesla because of some missed aggressive timelines, a puff of pot laced tobacco, and a group of corrupt scumbags manipulating SP. Tsk, tsk. Slow learners.

And yes, that mocking of Tesla that GM did. I’d forgotten about that.

Something laughing last something something...

 

[CitizenKane]

I agree with you. It's all about risk assessment, which is why prudent investors pay attention to things like consistent profitability and growth, level of debt, EPS, FCF, etc. of any company that they invest in whether they are making cars or pharmaceuticals. Of course, not everyone is an investor, as some are speculators who ignore the fundamentals.

There seems to be a perception that no other car manufacturer in the world is actually close to producing EVs. A prudent investor would be paying attention to what's going on in the market at BMW, the VW Group (VW, Audi, Porsche) and be looking at things like this for a glimpse into the future:

Mercedes-Benz EQC (2019): Test drive in L.A.

So, if you are more of a speculator -- which is ok -- play the volatility, buy low, sell high, and make a bunch of money. It's all good.

How would owning this car be better for me than owning my Tesla Model X? What are the unique selling points it will offer? I had high hopes for the I-Pace but lack of supercharger network, questionable over the air software updates and generally speaking low confidence in future R&D did not make it very interesting for me, despite a certain "flair" of the brand and nice interiors. It seems most other prospective buyers agree about this and other established car makers' EV:s, since Tesla continue to greatly outsell them. It is great that there will be more EV:s out there but I wouldn't count on any other brand automatically taking over the lead in sales just because it has a longer history and a CEO that doesn't upset the world by tweeting. In the end, I think it comes down to a cost benefit analysis for most buyers, assessing whether you get better functionality at the same or better cost. Judging from earlier disruptions in tech, I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla's major competitor will be a completely new actor, like Apple or Google.

Is it not more speculative to take a bet on that an old car manufacturer will actually manage to turn out a product that is superior to a Tesla, than betting on that the current market leader will continue to lead? I remember how iPhone was often predicted to lose to coming better smart phones from Nokia and Blackberry... Then came Samsung.

 

[Driver Dave]

How the Tesla drama could end
How the Tesla drama could end

"amid slowing demand for cars like the Model 3"

Funny how quickly made up news like this gets dated...

Shouldn't AXIOS pull this nonsense?

I mean it reads like it was written by a robot scraping click bait headlines.

Worse part is, it is stuck up top to apple stock news.

No under most people have no idea the actual reality of Tesla.

The clickbait feedback loop takes over.

 

[tinm]

Bollinger Motors asked Elon via Twitter about using the SC network for their planned electric trucks: https://electrek.co/2018/08/17/bollinger-tesla-supercharger-network

What I’d love to know is, did Bollinger try to go through more conventional corporate communications channels before resorting to thinking they’d win the Elon Attention Lottery by tweeting him publicly.

 

[AMN]

seen quite a few people complaining about margin requirements increasing.

In case anyone wasn’t aware - you can purchase “Deep in the money” call options which gives you a similar leverage to Margin, with little in the way of premium cost.

For instance you can purchase a $50 Jan 2020 call for $147 (meaning a $197 stock price to break even) and you have almost 25% margin with none of the downsides of margin

Just buy the stock or the latest 2024 convertible bond then. If you REALLY like trading options, sell DOTM covered calls against your stock.

 

[DontBetAgtsEln]

Regarding License plate. great post by Vincent on Twitter

Don't Bet Against Elon ‍ on Twitter

 

[ggr]

InsideEV May US sales:
Tesla Model 3: 13,950
Chevy Bolt: 1,396

Yep.

But the Bolt is production limited /s

 

[HG Wells]

If other areas are in worse shape, be prepared for an influx of people. I find it amazing when people say, “I don’t care if Miami Florida falls into the ocean. Their crazy anyway.” My response is, “where do you think those crazy people will move to? Most likely yours and my backyard.”

Their response: Silence accompanied by an “oh *sugar* look.

But, but think of all the money you can make buying up housing at higher elevations ?
A beach house in Canada that sits 20 feet above high tide would be a perfect investment.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Months of gloom and doom about Tesla in the media, but if we are to believe Fred's source Tesla is having record sales in North America. The question that has been bugging me today is how those two things can be reconciled. Possible explanations I can think of:

- Many people don't see the mainstream media and their FUD (or we, as vivid Tesla followers, see too much of it)
- Many people see the FUD for what it is: bullsugar
- Even bad news is good news: people read FUD about Tesla, get interested in the brand, do some more research and find out there's a lot to like about the cars (Youtube for instance has great videos by owners).
- Many people base their buying decisions on what they hear from informed sources: Tesla owners among their relatives, friends, at work, in communities and neigbourhoods. Thank you ambassadors!

Maybe it's just a combination of all of the above

 

[ZachF]

Large buying at the open...

 

[Remus]

Regarding License plate. great post by Vincent on Twitter

Don't Bet Against Elon ‍ on Twitter

This, is actually great news!! Much much better than the shady plates rental

 

[EVNow]

The question that has been bugging me today is how those two things can be reconciled. Possible explanations I can think of:

Without the FUD the demand would be higher.

 

[LN1_Casey]

How would owning this car be better for me than owning my Tesla Model X? What are the unique selling points it will offer?

I saw a video off Youtube that reviewed it. It's a Mercedes, so luxuriousness that you can sense than the high tech-ness of the model X. It's a posh car from a brand known for being posh, while not RR level.

The interior design itself is also very lovely. I like the reflective heads up display they have on the front windshield, very clever. It's also much quieter than a Tesla, since they have a lot more padding everywhere. They do lose the frunk due to the standard old car maker ideals of "we need to put things under the hood, because that's where the engine normally is." but the separated motor does make a difference. And most buyers of the model would sell the car before it starts to fall apart on them, so the likely quickly degrading silencing foam won't matter too much.

 

[endofpetroleum]

Turn oil into salt. Remove its value with far less expensive ubiquitous modular renewables
“The electrons must flow”

The only 100% surefire solution to climate change is now almost in the market. A chemical reaction 100x greater liquid hydrogen.

Bit.ly/eop-onepage

We have some insights on the car manufacturers take on this tech. Not for a public forum.

 

[winfield100]

There seems to be a perception that no other car manufacturer in the world is actually close to producing EVs. A prudent investor would be paying attention to what's going on in the market at BMW, the VW Group (VW, Audi, Porsche) and be looking at things like this for a glip:
Mercedes-Benz EQC (2019): Test drive in L.A..

Many of us have seen this glimpse of the recent past actually
@pdq
It has a “wussy little battery”, a compliance vehicle at best
Burns fossil fuels
Has a giant gaping grill where it gulps Oxygen and tail pipes where it “farts” noxious gasses
Last gasp of a dying era I guess
I’ve driven a few Mercedes, poor acceleration, worse braking, handle like a drunken sailor, a sheer terror to drive even after 1.3 million miles prior experience

http://evadc.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/EVInfoSheet-20190514.pdf
edit:
a list of EV's and compliance vehicles