Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mike117]

yes -- demand cliff! doooooom!!

until suddenly a few days before, it will suddenly be "expecting" 115k, so it can call whatever the real number is a big miss.

Just saying that I thought that 100k was like the "minimum" expected for Q3. I thought the SP would react to 100k like "Ah okay". I would have been surprised if they had hit 115k.

Orders of 110k is a very good sign - even in these times where general autosales are heading down (recession).

Therefore - I feel happy with this figures. But I'd like to see it higher - especially as China sales have started too.

edit: If you're saying they are at "max output" with 100k - I do not really get it how they can achieve the 360-400k that Elon was telling us. Sorry - stupid - they will get to 360k easily.

 

[Sean Wagner]

#MACRO
Just a heads up - Sabine Lautenschläger, Germany's representative on the board of the European Central Bank quit, and it's been taken as an implied rebuke to the reinstatement of massive asset purchases and ratcheting up of negative interest rates for banks parking cash - ie. resumption of QE.


#BOLLINGER

Seriously though, I suspect it's because they know the car will be produced in such limited volume that the square body will save a lot of money on complex stamping dies that would normally be needed when panels are curved in all three directions.

This is exactly what I heard from persons responsible at the company [difficult to be more precise]. Usually, I would append "as far as I can recall", especially when not being able to link to the source anymore, but I'll claim 99% certainty on this one. So to reiterate, the gigantic savings in capital outlays combined with low volumes drove this decision.

There's also value in signalling the vehicle's intended use - that analogy with the"tool in the shed" further up is excellent. People who are interested in this sort of application will recognize the Bollinger as worthy of closer examination. If they build it right, they will come.

Of course, that's coming from someone who managed to strand a Jeep so deep in muck even a Land Rover dared not venture into it. Needed a tractor to haul it out. Was really fun crawling under the front axle and into that soup [really!].

So, not to drag this thread too far through the verbal slurry, this is niche, and it hopefully will work.

 

[stef]

yes -- demand cliff! doooooom!!

until suddenly a few days before, it will suddenly be "expecting" 115k, so it can call whatever the real number is a big miss.

Exactly. Which is why I think the leak is well timed while the “consensus” is still below 100k but climbing.
Now Tesla has set the narrative of how great this Q3 milestone is, rather than analysts and clowns making it look like they missed a target their are still in the process of making up. Only way for Tesla was to front run them.
Good move Elon.

 

[Fact Checking]

Just saying that I thought that 100k was like the "minimum" expected for Q3. I thought the SP would react to 100k like "Ah okay". I would have been surprised if they had hit 115k.

No, Q3 deliveries expectations were much lower for many market participants:

• FactSet expectations were 97k-98k,
• most Wall Street estimates were characterized as being in the 95k-100k range,
• quite a few Wall Street estimates were in the 80k-90k range,
• almost none were above 100k,
• the TMC consensus was 70k-80k,
• TSLAQ was expecting anything between 0 and 70k,

I.e. almost all market participants, long or short, with serious positions, were expecting lower deliveries, which means that their reaction to yesterday's information of possibly 100k deliveries is to buy TSLA: either to buy more, or to buy to cover.

Another important factor is that very few market participants were surprised negatively by Elon's email, so very few would sell for anything but technical trading reasons. I.e. lower supply of shares to buy - and while shorts tried to cap the price below the $240-$250 level, that kind of selling pressure is not sustainable.

There's also relevance of 100k deliveries and the timely V10 release to Q3 profitability, making Q1'2020 based S&P 500 inclusion more probable next April/May, assuming Tesla can eek out a small profit in Q1'2020 - or August/September next year should Q1 be a small loss and Q2 be glorious.

So yesterday's TSLA price action was not a surprise IMHO.

 

[Fact Checking]

This is exactly what I heard from persons responsible at the company [difficult to be more precise]. Usually, I would append "as far as I can recall", especially when not being able to link to the source anymore, but I'll claim 99% certainty on this one. So to reiterate, the gigantic savings in capital outlays combined with low volumes drove this decision.

There's also value in signalling the vehicle's intended use - that analogy with the"tool in the shed" further up is excellent. People who are interested in this sort of application will recognize the Bollinger as worthy of closer examination. If they build it right, they will come.

Ok that's fair - my reaction to Bollinger's design was somewhat unfair, and I do like their utilitarian design language, as long as it is used mostly off-road, which I suspect the primary intended use-case is.

 

[Fact Checking]

Meanwhile SpaceX is continuing their water tower scam and their fake rocket landings, which water tower is now, oddly, equipped with a cluster of three of the most advanced flight proven rocket engines in existence:

 

[Unpilot]

Musk sure goes all out when he is scamming people...Model 3's dumped in the ocean...fake water tower space ships

 

[KarenRei]

Am I the only one who feels a little bit disappointed by the fact of only seeing 100'000 deliveries in Q3? I thought of seeing around 105-110k as we've already hit 92-95k in Q2.

However, the SP reacts quite favourable. Don't really get it why - did the market really think we wouldnt reach 100'000 deliveries after having 95 in Q2?

It says breaking 100k. Not by how much.

My extrapolation-spreadsheet (which absolutely has the ability to be wrong - there's lots of unknowns ) has been pointing at deliveries of around 89k Model 3s, so add S&X to that, and I don't expect dramatic growth in them. Remember that Tesla was only able to produce 72,5k Model 3s last quarter. This would be a big production increase. You can't sell more than you can make.

 

[jerry33]

Owning a Roadster back when they were bleeding edge tech does not reflect in any fashion on a person's character
Donald Trump owned two American cars; one was a Tesla

Hitler started VW so that ordinary Germans could have an affordable car. Getting one thing right doesn't imply ethical behaviour.

 

[bhtooefr]

Also, they should not expect a top score for NCAP and IIHS "pedestrian protection" either - that front is more like a freight train than a modern curved car front that gives pedestrians a chance of survival...

IIRC, Bollinger is certifying as a Class 3 heavy duty truck - 10,001 to 14,000 lbs GVWR, so in the same weight class as an F-350 - specifically to avoid safety regulations. Airbags aren't even required once you're in that class, and Bollinger doesn't have them.

 

[JRP3]

Seriously though, I suspect it's because they know the car will be produced in such limited volume that the square body will save a lot of money on complex stamping dies that would normally be needed when panels are curved in all three directions.

Yes, I believe the panels will be laser or water jet cut, bent on sheet metal brakes, and hand assembled, no stamping machines at all.

 

[jerry33]

What happened to due diligence?

It's still due.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

My wife overheard the CNBC video as I was playing it and said in a distasteful tone: "Who are they? They sound like a bunch of teenagers talking about someone they are jealous of".

Your wife is a VERY smart person. Just sayin'.

Dan

 

[jerry33]

Ok that's fair - my reaction to Bollinger's design was somewhat unfair, and I do like their utilitarian design language, as long as it is used mostly off-road, which I suspect the primary intended use-case is.

If the range was longer, and assuming they do it right, it would be very tempting for me. Generally you want more range in an off-road vehicle because the conditions are generally energy eating. (I drove my '72 Series III 88 Land Rover for twenty years).

 

[jerry33]

IIRC, Bollinger is certifying as a Class 3 heavy duty truck - 10,001 to 14,000 lbs GVWR, so in the same weight class as an F-350 - specifically to avoid safety regulations. Airbags aren't even required once you're in that class, and Bollinger doesn't have them.

Airbags aren't needed if you have proper roll cages (or structural members that work as roll cages) and proper safety harnesses. (Bollinger probably doesn't have either of those though).

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Today was a good day. Is it too much to ask for another 6% jump? Enhanced summon rollout, 100K deliveries and China Gigafactory starting production in 2 weeks should be worth at least a 2 day rally?

Unfortunately, yes, it probably is too much to ask.
Tesla just needs to keep on doing what they are doing. The stock will come around...eventually.

Dan

 

[sweter]

edit: thinking about this, what would be nice someday is an app automation feature which could for example turn on climate control, seat heaters, open the garage door, unlatch the trunk with a single key press (or voice command).

Should be relatively easy to implement for Tesla with Siri Shortcuts. A couple of days work max. Gotta tweet that to the boss

Exactly. Which is why I think the leak is well timed while the “consensus” is still below 100k but climbing.
Now Tesla has set the narrative of how great this Q3 milestone is, rather than analysts and clowns making it look like they missed a target their are still in the process of making up. Only way for Tesla was to front run them.
Good move Elon.

I sometimes think people read way too much into these emails. Elon many times has said that he's no businessman and I'm convinced he doesn't care that much about the SP. It's a distraction, it's not his motivation. He won't be scheming to push the SP up by wording and timing an email leak. He ain't got time fo dat and he's an honest man.

We should read this email as what it is - a way to motivate people on the ground and push them towards a specific goal, a nice round record number. Don't mistake it for 100k in the bag.

Remember, buy the rumour, sell the news.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I think whats best about that email is how calm it sounds compared to previous quarters. It reads to me more like this:

"Hey guys! great news! looks like we are going to hit 100,000 deliveries. how cool is that? P.S. Would be cool if we can ensure we do that"

in comparison to earlier emails which read more like:

"OMG everyone its almost quarter end and we are SCREWED and all DEAD unless we half-kill ourselves by working without sleep right now. WORK FASTER! WORK FASTER OR WE ALL DIE!"

Which suggests to me that things are going pretty well, that 100k is expected (or fairly close to it), and that the current delivery rate, which previously was highly aspirational, is now the norm.

Which is great.

 

[KarenRei]

I've been thinking... if that Tennant Creek solar plant goes through, Australia might get its own Gigafactory.

Tennant Creek is supposed to get a 20-30GWh storage facility. That's the entire current annual output of GF1. Would Tesla send that remotely? I highly, highly doubt it. GF1's output is going to be spoken for for years, as is GF3's, and GF4's in Europe. And Musk hates sending large amounts of product overseas, vs. making it locally. Meanwhile, Australia is among the world's top suppliers of every raw material that goes into making an EV battery pack except graphite (if natural graphite is used) - and the largest current source of that is nearby China. But Australia also has promising local graphite resources, too - including one of the world's largest graphite deposits (discovered in 2016), which has thusfar been untapped but is planned to start production in 2020, and is expected to yield high quality graphite at very low costs.

And it's not like battery needs would suddenly stop after Tennant Creek; they're just going to keep growing. In Australia, in the region, and globally. The sustained output of such a plant would absolutely be gobbled up even after Tennant Creek finishes construction. Particularly because an energy-dedicated Gigafactory with Tesla's newest battery tech would be able to make storage a fraction the cost that it is today.

If Tennant Creek goes through as planned... I think you Aussies getting a Gigafactory. GF5 or GF6. Location would, with high likelihood, be somewhere on the outskirts of Perth, or if not, South Australia; most of Australia's battery-related mineral resources are near there. For example, most of Australia's nickel:

... and the largest lithium mine on Earth:

The Perth area also offers a sufficient local labour pool for construction and operation. The main downside is the tight labour market, which might favour South Australia instead.

The Siviour graphite deposit is in South Australia, here - not that far away:

Siviour graphite has already been trialed for use in li-ion batteries.

 

[AlexS]

Yes, I believe the panels will be laser or water jet cut, bent on sheet metal brakes, and hand assembled, no stamping machines at all.

thats 100% correct