Texas is ground zero for job loss right now, what better way to show a plan around this than announce another energy provider/auto company into the state!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Tesla is poised to beat earnings and possibly qualify for S&P 500 inclusion, Barclays says
Could CNBC hold off on this please “
Tesla is poised to beat earnings and possibly qualify for S&P 500 inclusion, Barclays says”
Could CNBC hold off on this please “
Tesla is poised to beat earnings and possibly qualify for S&P 500 inclusion, Barclays says”
This is not an either/or situation but a situation where you can do both.There are probably factors I'm missing as an outsider, but when the FSD software is safer than a human and enables robotaxis, $1B immediately is much more useful than $2B over 5 or 10 years. To understand why, one needs to appreciate the economics of a robotaxi:
These numbers are on the conservative side. Even $1 per mile would significantly undercut competition.
- Let's assume $30-35k up front costs (should be lower long term, but base M3/Y and base Cybertruck cost about this much to manufacture).
- Say a cost to operate of $0.20 per mile (Elon quoted $0.18 in his presentation, could be much less long term).
- Assume $0.70 price per mile compared to the $2-3 that other ride hailing services charge.
- At 50% useful miles, that'd be $0.35 revenue per mile.
- This means $0.15 profit per mile.
- Assume a robotaxi operates 100 hours per week (should be 24/7 minus charging and maintenance time initially when there's limited supply, but could still be far more than 100 hours long term, if taxis transport cargo during off-peak hours).
- If the robotaxi travels at ~25 mph (similar to Uber), that'd be 2,500 miles per week.
- That means a robotaxi would earn $375 per week, and ~$20,000 per year.
Nonetheless, the initial $30-35k investment pays for itself within 2 years, and then could generate as much as a 50% or more ROI per year.
This is why from my perspective I think it makes sense for Tesla to prioritize up-front cash, so that it can buy as many of its own vehicles as possible once FSD is safer than a human. However, there could be other variables that favor the subscription model, that as an outsider i am simply not aware of.
Operating one's own fleet of robotaxis is the mother of all recurring revenue
Once FSD is safer than a human, FSD attach rate should be 100%*, and it'll make sense for Tesla to get this cash up front to invest in its own fleet of robotaxis.
*People or investors will line up to buy a $40k EV + $20k or $30k FSD option. $60k or $70k for a robotaxi that can make you $200k or more over a 10 year period is a pretty damn good investment.
Tesla can continue to sell cars with FSD (to speed the transition to an all EV future) and deploy Tesla network/Robotaxi and disrupt the freight sector with the Semi and build out Tesla Energy (MegaPack, Powerwall, Solar Roof...). There is no need to reduce the scope of vision. Elon is hinting at the reverse - still things like HVAC he would like to get into.
Wait, are you saying you look at this graph and say "yeah everything has gone back to normal"?
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
There's another factor now.
In theory states would be even more desperate to throw incentives after companies. But media and the public would absolutely tear into any company that now accepts, or even appears to be looking for, huge incentives.
So either Tesla would now have to build without monetary incentives or they would have to wait which is probably not possible if they want to get the cybertruck into production in 2021. Now would however be an excellent time to force Texas to give up their dealership laws. It's not like the dealerships are gonna have much money to continue throwing after the politicians.
To help: family of civil engineers with many projects in high water table regions (New Orleans, eg)
If the ground was found to be soft and with a high water table, then traditionally it could take up to 1 year to pack in the ground prior to driving piling. Advances in technology could reduce this time.
Any true delay may be purely civil engineering and not red tape.
You cannot simply drive piling in every ground type.
Some must be packed, soaked, and allowed to rest.
Example: Chesterfield Ice Complex recently built in flood plains of Chesterfield, MO - ground was prepared 6 months prior to construction.
Luckily, this is all common knowledge and dealt with for years. If true it will allow Tesla to build out a rapid and concise project, just delayed a few months.
Edit:
To add - after determining pilings are needed, tests need to be done while ground is prepared to define piling depth, then piling designed, then contracted, and performed. Also, foundation will drastically change causing that design to change as well.
This isn’t apocalyptic.
The previous poster who said potentially October start may be right just from the engineering side.
Pilings, unfortunately, are not plug and play but ARE used globally for many projects much more ambitious than an auto factory. Slight delay coinciding with COVID-19 delay seems acceptable to me.
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Even adjusting for inflation, global GDP has more than doubled since 1990.
Europe's share is more than half of what it was in 1990.
Stagnating, perhaps, but not steep decline.
Yea pretty standard, took us time to get use to the fact that this is a $800 stock and a $20 drop isn’t bad
Got to create that "Tesla Huge Miss Loses Opportunity For S&P 500 Inclusion" Headline post earnings. They are drafting up that story right now.
EV Promoter
Member
I'm so sorry for you that an Eu country doesn't allow citizens to remain without water for someone to build luxury cars or trash the environment to China level or allow no rights for workers to have cheap 24/7 worforce.
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What is wrong with a 24/7 work force? China has a lot of people, like 4-5x more than other countries. You have something against overnight shifts in countries with too many people and not enough jobs?
I consider Fremont as a giant lab where they design and tweak the machine that makes the machine, it’s closer to all the design/software/robotic talents needed for that, so it can go through iterations faster.
Once the design is working and somewhat optimized, they copy it to GFs around the world, where real manufacturing happens, obviously optimizations continues in the field and those propagates back to the lab too.
For this reason, I think Bay Area is the perfect place for Tesla to have the HQ and the Mothership.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I think you are taking normal permitting issues too seriously. The government appears to be helping Tesla navigate existing development laws successfully. Work on the foundations will happen during the dry season under a staged permitting process. I suspect the initial permits (that needed to be modified due to sandy conditions) were a strategy to get the initial permits approved quickly so land-clearing could begin before it was delayed by seasonal wildlife concerns.
As I see it, the process is unfolding perfectly. Land cleared before deadlines: Check. Foundation work can be completed before fall rains: Check. The project has successfully navigated the two main issues that could cause long delays.
Hmmmmm....that's not too appealing in a world that is constantly warming. It's a bit old-fashioned. Being of northern European descent with a strong mix of Neanderthal genes, and having experienced the early effects of global warming, I would be more likely to wax poetically about a cool breeze blowing, a big body of water and some nice shade.
Yes. Toyota really doesn't want to be on the EV train. It's odd.
These words you wrote...
Are you arguing with someone here? I can't find a single instance of someone arguing in favor of dehydrating people to death, trashing the environment, or violating the rights of workers for Tesla.
It's almost as if you made up a false argument just to win an argument.
Ya we’re gonna get dumped on hard.
I believe it’s flimsy, a flailing of desperation.
We’ve seen the meat and potatoes. They’re tasty.
First step to separate personal use FSD from commercial use.
As small features rolling out, expect commercial FSD price to go up substantially.(just as Elon said and people would not believe)
Probably because the board thinks like Japanese. Given that there's absolutely no space for garages in Japan and living space is limited, they most likely find charging cars being an impossible task for wide spread adoption. Space is so limited that they massively utilize capsule hotels.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Wait, are you saying you don't have your full complement of Tesla shares (and have been gritting your teeth for some time now)?
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