Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Jack6591]

With greater success the attacks upon Tesla will become more and more intense. It becomes increasingly important to check your emotions and discern signal from noise.

Simple machines, such as levers and block & tackle devices multiply mechanical advantage. In the same sense, energy storage multiplies the capabilities of renewable energy.

Dovetailing energy storage, renewable power, and grid-connected controllers will empower Tesla to disrupt electric utility business models. Commercial demand fees, are the cash-cow of American electric utilities. Tesla should be able to capture the lion’s share of that revenue.

While bureaucratic corruption has metastasized the utility industry, their lobbyists have defined the state of the art of “regulatory capture.” Expect them to fight the good fight.

Battery day will indeed be the most exciting day in Tesla’s history. I will personally do all that I can to advocate and advance Tesla’s master plan. Unmistakably it will be game on for the utilities. Don’t be surprised—anticipate the fight. Maintaining a cool head during this fight will make folks wealthy.

 

[Intl Professor]

Imma get to Tesla/TSLA related...

Yeah, that can cause issues but often it’s rooted in something else. Deal with the something else and a resolution can happen.

Like anger comes from fear. Anger isn’t the issue, it’s the symptom. Fear is what needs to be addressed.

If someone believes spare the rod, spoil the child and the other person believes children should be reasoned with, given time outs — that’s a core belief and philosophy difference that causes strife from the get go and rarely can be worked out without leaving behind a lot of turmoil.

How it relates to the situation we find ourselves in here: So many people angry at Elon. They think it’s because of his words, or the time and place of the words, etc... but really it’s because there’s a core belief/philosophy that is at odds as it relates to money, politics, and/or society/family.

It bothers me not what Elon says because my society/family philosophy hinges on actions not words, it hinges on morals and ethics not words said in anger or under stress/duress. My money philosophies don’t allow me to place enough importance on money in general to care one way or another what happens to the SP based on what he says. And my political philosophy just doesn’t even get a voice beyond, ‘I don’t want to vote for any of them except if it’s to vote them off my island, in which case I’ll cast multiple votes for each.’

If people looked below the surface of their reactions and dug down a little they’d soon realize that being angry at Elon because what he said makes them think he looks stupid is not really the issue.

It’s more along the lines, if I think he looks and sounds stupid, then other people think it too, and some of those people know I’ve invested in Tesla, so now they’re going to think I’m stupid for investing in a company run by this foul-mouthed stupid person and on top of that now my investment is going to take a hit — and we’re off to the races; stupid Elon, grrrr.

That’s just one way the thought process can go. It can be, that’s a stupid thing for Elon to say, I’ve just lost a loved one to this virus, I don’t want anyone else I love to die — and away we go.

Because I think he sounds stupid, every potential customer is going to think he sounds stupid, now Tesla will go under and I’m going to lose my chance to retire early — giddy up.

Regardless of the path it takes it all started from fear based in core beliefs and philosophies under opposition.

Let’s end our session with this nugget; it’s your parents’ fault.

You've become a down right mother hen of a philosopher/counselor now that we need it. Bravissimo.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

While I agree with this, you can be certain Tesla is in close contact with every single supplier, right down to the last screw and wire tie. They wouldn't be pushing so hard to re-open if they saw a problem.

As an anecdote I talked to an old friend a few days ago. He's fairly high up in the IKEA organization. This is exactly what they are doing. They are talking closely not only to their suppliers. But to their sub suppliers. Making sure they will be able to ramp up when it's time. That they haven't let their employees go. Offering cheap loans with long payback for those that need money now and isn't getting government help in whatever country they are.

Right now 300 out of 400 worldwide stores are closed. Sales is way down in those still open.

Their main concern is not if they can open up their stores as soon as they are allowed to. They know they can. But unless they can start getting new deliveries very quickly they will start running out of lots of things very quickly.

The other main concern is how to get everything transported to the stores. So they are apparently helping some companies in this sector out as well.

He couldn't/wouldn't give an opinion on if most stores that were closed by various governments were so correctly or not. Only said every country and region is different.

Not a single employee has been let go. Everyone is getting paid. Can't go on forever but apparently they had country specific emergency funds for shutdowns. Never expected it to happen in most of the world at once though. More intended for natural disasters.

Probably helped that they are not a publicly traded company. Not sure what percentage of companies on the stock exchanges have emergency/disaster funds for subcontractors in countries on other continents. Probably not a priority with most.

 

[kengchang]

China SR+ is now 291,800 RMB - 20,250 incentive = 271,500 Autopilot is included

 

[SageBrush]

Unfortunately, yes. I was worried during AH yesterday that we would hit 1,000 on Friday, and even though I have enough shares to cover the Calls I sold, I decided to buy additional shares to cover some of the calls. As it started dropping this morning, I bought back 10 of the covered calls and immediately sold 10 900SP calls for Friday, so I made some money by rolling down. I will keep selling covered calls on those 1,000 shares now, but if the SP drops too much, I won't be able to sell them for very much (I need to sell them for enough to at least cover the interest on the margin I used). Will have to look if better to go weekly, bi-weekly, or monthly.

Thanks for the detail -- thankfully, not as bad as the headline since your sold calls offset some of your loss from the drop in share price.

One thing is for sure though -- I have neither the expertise or stomach for the game you play. I'm happy though to listen in.

 

[SageBrush]

China SR+ is now 291,800 RMB - 20250 incentive including AutoPilot

I'm unsure of the prices you are posting. What is the price

SR+, No AP, after incentives ?
SR+, AP, after incentives ?

Incentive if eligible is 20,250 ? Does that vary with car price ?

Are the incentives taken during or after the sale ? I'm asking to understand the price in the context of China requiring a car price below 300k RMB to be eligible for incentives.

Thanks

 

[EV forever]

Meh. There’d be people questioning his strategy if he just sat back and waited like good little boys and girls do until the adults in the room get their ‘this is 110% what needs to be done, guaranteed, double blind study, peer reviewed science’.

Again, it makes no difference to me what happens but what’s coming out of Alameda County is a bunch of ‘nobody wants to stick their neck out any further than absolutely necessary’. I get it’s a rock and a hard place to be in. So move the damn rock or step out from between the two.

I don’t know why nobody has @anthonyj ’s cajones to just come out and say; Look folks, this is the deal.

We have x new cases still every day, x people are dying per day, we don’t have the testing kits available to test everyone because this, if we let you all go back to normal this is what’s going to happen, to help prevent that from happening we’re going to require this of low risk businesses, this of medium risk businesses and this of high risk businesses, masks will have to be wore under these circumstances until our daily rate of new cases drops to this level, and so on. Just lay it out for people and then have them choose for themselves.

As of today, people are now allowed to golf and play tennis, but I can’t get a therapeutic massage. Even though I shower before I go, put on clean clothes, therapist uses fresh laundered sheets and pillows for each client, I touch nothing else in the room, we’d both happily wear a mask (the only additional precaution to add to normal protocols), she washes her hands and arms thoroughly after each client, and I go home and have another shower and put on fresh clothes again. Nope, no can do. But I can go play a round of golf, yeah me! If only I could get a massage so I could swing a club relatively pain free.

I’d imagine because there’s no point to it. China is what it is and works the way it’s intended to work. The United States is intended to work in a different way and currently there is a good chunk of the population that thinks it’s working more like China than the United States.

My 2 cents -
Tesla is Elon and Elon is Tesla - there is no separating one from the other. So Tesla might as well come out and fully, but politely, support their leader and the opinion he has already publicized. Now, I am not saying come out and say that the local government is fascist, but if articulated properly, they could turn the tables and put the local Alameda county officials on the defensive. It might even give other local businesses a rallying point to demand similar explanations from the county officials why they have to remain shutdown

What I am thinking is a blog post over the weekend clearly laying out Tesla's position, rationale and arguments in favor of being allowed to open up with precautions.

• The local officials have done a fantastic job of 'flattening the curve'. The healthcare system is not overwhelmed as previously feared, with hospitalization rate is much lower than predicted.
• As Gov Newsom stated, opening up the economy in phases can now be started by allowing essential businesses to open. Mfg is essential business and with strict guidelines in place, should be allowed to open to keep the economy of the area moving.
• Tesla has a well thought out plan of how to manage opening keeping social distancing guidances in place. Experience from China and plans for Nevada/Buffalo factories
• All over US and the Western world, mfg is slowly being resumed, even in areas much harder hit than Bay areas. E.g. all other auto mfg in US, Ferrari in Italy etc
• It is surprising then that Alameda county will not allow opening, nor will they specify a timeline for this. All the points Elon brought up during the ER call about suppliers and small businesses who may not survive longer shutdowns can be explained more articulately than his twitter statements
• Politely ask for a clear justification for keeping businesses shutdown. Explain that just demanding things being shutdown with no explanations is not how things are done in a democracy.

If they can post it over the weekend, it gives folks time to read and digest this. It also gives a good and positively written basis for others to openly express support. Right now, even if folks agree with Elon about going back to work, most are not going to come out and openly support him because of this comments about fascism etc.

Well, just my thoughts. I am so tired of seeing the sound bites which were a minor part of the ER call, but became big bold headlines.

 

[Sanny]

Am I wrong to expect that as usual next week or the week after we will be allowed to start moving up towards those updated price targets?

 

[JRP3]

Nafnlaus
@enn_nafnlaus
Replying to
@elonmusk
James O'Keefe is toxic. Please don't retweet toxic people just because you like what they said.Nafnlaus on Twitter

 

[SageBrush]

We have x new cases still every day, x people are dying per day, we don’t have the testing kits available to test everyone because this, if we let you all go back to normal this is what’s going to happen, to help prevent that from happening we’re going to require this of low risk businesses, this of medium risk businesses and this of high risk businesses, masks will have to be wore under these circumstances until our daily rate of new cases drops to this level, and so on. Just lay it out for people and then have them choose for themselves.

Have them choose what ?

 

[PeterJA]

Los Angeles county beaches have been closed. Orange County beaches have been opened. Now they’re all closed.

The main beach in Oceanside (north end of San Diego County) was open today for walking, but not standing still. I saw a patrolling car stop to chew out a mother watching her toddler dig in the sand. Damn delinquents...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Nafnlaus
@enn_nafnlaus
Replying to
@elonmusk
James O'Keefe is toxic. Please don't retweet toxic people just because you like what they said.Nafnlaus on Twitter

Is there an updated list of people we're allowed to retweet?

 

[Singuy]

My 2 cents -
Tesla is Elon and Elon is Tesla - there is no separating one from the other. So Tesla might as well come out and fully, but politely, support their leader and the opinion he has already publicized. Now, I am not saying come out and say that the local government is fascist, but if articulated properly, they could turn the tables and put the local Alameda county officials on the defensive. It might even give other local businesses a rallying point to demand similar explanations from the county officials why they have to remain shutdown

What I am thinking is a blog post over the weekend clearly laying out Tesla's position, rationale and arguments in favor of being allowed to open up with precautions.

• The local officials have done a fantastic job of 'flattening the curve'. The healthcare system is not overwhelmed as previously feared, with hospitalization rate is much lower than predicted.
• As Gov Newsom stated, opening up the economy in phases can now be started by allowing essential businesses to open. Mfg is essential business and with strict guidelines in place, should be allowed to open to keep the economy of the area moving.
• Tesla has a well thought out plan of how to manage opening keeping social distancing guidances in place. Experience from China and plans for Nevada/Buffalo factories
• All over US and the Western world, mfg is slowly being resumed, even in areas much harder hit than Bay areas. E.g. all other auto mfg in US, Ferrari in Italy etc
• It is surprising then that Alameda county will not allow opening, nor will they specify a timeline for this. All the points Elon brought up during the ER call about suppliers and small businesses who may not survive longer shutdowns can be explained more articulately than his twitter statements
• Politely ask for a clear justification for keeping businesses shutdown. Explain that just demanding things being shutdown with no explanations is not how things are done in a democracy.

If they can post it over the weekend, it gives folks time to read and digest this. It also gives a good and positively written basis for others to openly express support. Right now, even if folks agree with Elon about going back to work, most are not going to come out and openly support him because of this comments about fascism etc.

Well, just my thoughts. I am so tired of seeing the sound bites which were a minor part of the ER call, but became big bold headlines.

I think politeness was threw out the window given his demeanor. My guess is that he had one more crack at it prior to earnings call and completely got rejected, hence his twitter rant the night before earnings. Probably hang up the phone and threw it at the window.

 

[dw4ngg]

Is there an updated list of people we're allowed to retweet?

All I can say is ugh. There’s not enough self-awareness these today. Ppl just pop off without empathizing first.

 

[Sanny]

might even give other local businesses a rallying point to demand similar explanations from the county officials why they have to remain shutdown

This! It is exactly the way the majority thinks and it is a perfect illustration how low the bar currently is. Stockholm syndrome is a thing.

Shutdowns are not a norm and every official should spend every press conference explaining how and when it will be over, but this normal thinking is currently politically incorrect.

Now with this off my chest I'll probably go hang out with Elon on Twitter.

 

[Remus]

Is there an updated list of people we're allowed to retweet?

Allow maybe the wrong word here. Let me make an analogy: would you retweet from Tesla chart?

 

[Singuy]

This! It is exactly the way the majority thinks and it is a perfect illustration how low the bar currently is. Stockholm syndrome is a thing.

Shutdowns are not a norm and every official should spend every press conference explaining how and when it will be over, but this normal thinking is currently politically incorrect.

Now with this off my chest I'll probably go hang out with Elon on Twitter.

You can thank our president for making all this so polarizing and political to the point that any hint of wanting to open the economy at an earlier date than what the officials want = delusional trumper.

Usually the president is good at unifying people during a crisis..well that didn't happen.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The Semi might have been delayed because it will now be built at the new US GF, or because it is now using Maxwell packs.

Or because diesel fuel now costs $0.35/mile. Tesla Semi still beat that on cost, but it's shrewd to prioritize battery resources for the profitable 3/Y during the these times of low fuel prices, while the new-tech battery factory buildout proceeds. A year is about right.

 

[Creekstalker]

Oh BTW, how come Musk doesn't call China welding apartments shut fascist

Mark B. Spiegel asked the same question on Twitter, so great minds and all...

The answer is that China doesn't and has never pretended tp be anything other than authoritarian. It's people have no expectation of limited government, and civil liberties- protections against government- have not been imbedded in the founding documents and cultural fabric of China.

In short, China behaved as totalitarian countries would be expected to behave. Very efficient when it comes to fighting pandemics and building gigafactories. Kind of a mixed bag the rest of the time.

 

[SpaceHobo]

You can thank our president for making all this so polarizing and political to the point that any hint of wanting to open the economy at an earlier date than what the officials want = delusional trumper.

Usually the president is good at unifying people during a crisis..well that didn't happen.

I can’t believe that I am sticking my head out of the gopher hole on this topic. I am saddened by how polarized everything is nowadays. Our response to COVID19-19 is undoubtedly a matter of policy over which reasonable people may disagree. “Science” doesn’t dictate one policy over another. There are many factors to weigh. In fact, I think that the appeal to “science” is often misused. Science is a methodology. It can be used to tell us many valuable things about the virus. But it’s only part of the policy analysis.

One way or another, we will all get through these strange times. I am confident that Tesla can weather the storm and I believe that it will continue to take market share from ICE vehicles. My investments are premised on the belief that for many people, their next car will be electric. This is why I believe Tesla will thrive while the ICE manufacturers will suffer.