Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[printf42]

My take for the slogan:

“A gift that keeps giving.”

Got HW3 upgrade for our Mode3 yesterday and drove the car a little today, the visualization (perception) is so much better.

The car used to have many false positives for traffic cones, now it can pinpoint them, together with trash cans, traffic lights etc.
The visuals are a bit overwhelming but shows the car can understand its surroundings much much better than before, I am now so eager to see what the 4d network would be able to do.

Show me another car that you could get a upgrade like this, no matter how much you pay.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

That's a good slogan for the brand, but what we're looking for right now is a way to update the commonly used metaphor "firing on all cylinders".

Steam engines used coal fires, steam-driven pistons and cylinders ever since James Watt's patent in 1769. That's over 250 years ago now! Like the nautical terms that have crept into our language, I'm sure that usage is here to stay, but I think it's also the wrong metaphor for EVs, which have no steam, no pistons, no cylinders, and hopefully no fires (certainly no intentional ones!)

Is there some commonly-known invention from the past that we can pull forward to the present to power our new metaphor? It would be great if Nickela Tesla himself had an idea we could update or adapt for use in the modern era of EVs.

Cheers!

Great metaphors stand the test of time, long after whatever they referred to have been forgotten by history.

Today, we still say something has a "full head of steam" even though no one has seen a steam locomotive in a century.

We still say "we're setting sail", or when "the wind is at our backs", "we are full sails" even though no one has sailed on a ship which uses the wind to generate motion for longer than a century. In fact, even today, the act of guiding and navigating a ship is still called sailing even though the ship is powered by a motor!

There's no reason to assume people will stop saying "firing on all cylinders", "step on the gas", or using terms like turbo, turbocharger, or supercharger anytime soon. In fact...the Tesla fast charging network is called the Supercharger network even though that's a borrowed term!

Supercharger - Wikipedia

Anyone who has used Microsoft Office today still knows what the save icon looks like. It's this:

What the hell is this? No one has seen a floppy disk in decades. Yet the icon used for Save will never change, even though what it actually is will be forgotten in living memory someday. Why change an icon which is, well, iconic?

 

[StealthP3D]

Knowing Elon, rates will be strongly influenced by how often Autopilot is engaged.

Knowing Elon, the rates will probably be determined by AI and no one will know (for certain) why their rates are higher or lower. AI will use correlation of everything a driver does (including AP usage) to calculate risk. AI will figure out what metrics best determine risk. It may be subtle things no one has even thought of before or that can't even be explained easily. It could be patterns or combinations of things that trigger a higher risk rating. If you get a high quote from Tesla you will go to a standard insurer who will insure you at standard rates. Eventually this will bankrupt them because they will get the drivers most likely to be in costly accidents. If they raise their rates to cover the fact that they are getting mostly higher risk drivers, this will drive the remaining low risk drivers to Tesla Insurance. As their insurance businesses are failing they will lobby for Tesla Insurance to be broken off from Tesla under anti-trust statutes and for Tesla to release driver data to all insurance companies. Eventually, Tesla will be required to encrypt the driver ID so individual data can only be associated with a particular person when that person applies for insurance from a competitor. But traditional insurance companies probably won't know how to make the best use of AI to analyze an individuals risk, if so, they will go bankrupt even with access to the data.

 

[StealthP3D]

If future earnings are NEVER returned to shareholders then they are worthless.

Then can be returned in 25 years. Or 50 years.

But at some point IN THE FUTURE they have to get back to shareholders.

No, there is no rule that says companies have to give back to their owners. The value is in the expectation or potential to give back to the owners.

 

[Criscmt]

I think it's more likely to go up than down, but a lot of things can happen over the course of just 5 trading days, including macros.

If it were a small amount, I'd personally wait out at least Monday and/or Tuesday, but if it's a significant amount, then obviously this entire situation is much more risky.

Only you can decide how much risk you're comfortable with.

Strike price also matters. If you're wrong about $1,600 calls, those are going to be worthless very soon, but if the strike price is $1,000 or $1,200, it's somewhat unlikely they'll lose all their value.

@FrankSG Thank you for your reply. I must have conveyed this earlier, hearty congratulations on your achievement, to-INSEAD-and-Singapore. Also, a fan of your blog.

The amount is significant.
I am wondering if there are possible hedges that can reduce the losses, covered calls (a big no no in TSLA community) against the shares I own don't make sense given the low premium now, maybe some other option strategy?

 

[graphilwar]

MSFT didn't pay any dividends when I owned them through the late '80's and '90's and they performed exceptionally. Then I sold them in 1998 and the price crashed and they started paying dividends around 2003. They were essentially flat through the decade even though they paid a small dividend the entire time. Then I bought them again in 2013 and collected a nice dividend (at least for a tech company) but the capital appreciation is what made it all worthwhile!

While the promise of dividends is what arguably creates the value, capital appreciation of growing companies is where I've realized the most profit. I think dividends are over-rated.

I’m guessing you sold MSFT in 1998 because you thought it was overvalued? It was dead money for so long. Getting back 2013 was really good timing. i’m curious about the thought process about your decision to finally get back into it after it had been dead money for so long. What did you see that made you feel like things were going to change?

 

[Krugerrand]

In November they announced the Cybertruck will go into production late 2021 though. I don't see how they're going to be on time if they build out MY production first, unless they build out both production lines at the same time.

I don't really know what will happen exactly, but I don't think it's a given that Model Ys will be rolling off the line in Texas before 2022.

Absolutely Y first. It doesn’t make sense otherwise. They’d want that factory printing money asap, at the very least so Elon can turn it into his butterfly conservatory.

You’re not understanding the challenge of the new processes that’ll be required to make the never done before in the history of mankind CYBRTRCK stainless steel body versus copy and paste conventional Y.

Of course they’d work on both in tandem, but Y will beat the truck to volume production.

 

[printf42]

Absolutely Y first. It doesn’t make sense otherwise. They’d want that factory printing money asap, at the very least so Elon can turn it into his butterfly conservatory.

You’re not understanding the challenge of the new processes that’ll be required to make the never done before in the history of mankind CYBRTRCK stainless steel body versus copy and paste conventional Y.

Of course they’d work on both in tandem, but Y will beat the truck to volume production.

You are under-estimating the manufacturing revolution that’s a CyberTruck.

It is a perfect example for what Elon said, manufacturing improvements starts with car design.

CT factory would do laser cutting then bending and welding of steel sheet, with very little stamping, probably some casting, but no paint shop is needed.

I bet it would be much easier to design and build a new CT factory than duplicate a ModelY factory.
(Assuming the drivetrain is plaid and would be done this year at somewhere else)

 

[MC3OZ]

My Tesla slogan is :- "Drive the Future".

 

[Artful Dodger]

For all the Falcon 9 talks, why not "going for launch?"

Because Falcon 9 extracts chemical energy via combustion, rather than extracting chemical energy via movement of ions and electrons. Difference is efficency. 25% for ICE vs 85% for EVs.

That's why "firing on all cylinders" doesn't work as a metaphor for EVs: ICE is no where near as good as electric.

Plus, no Fire, no Cylinders. And no, the bty cell "can" does not count as a cylinder.

Cheers!

 

[wipster]

Forge

Thanks! Now I've got something to monitor, just have wait for N and $44B

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I’m guessing you sold MSFT in 1998 because you thought it was overvalued? It was dead money for so long. Getting back 2013 was really good timing. i’m curious about the thought process about your decision to finally get back into it after it had been dead money for so long. What did you see that made you feel like things were going to change?

A lot of people bought MSFT when Steve Ballmer retired. Satya Nadella has revolutionized that company and made them into a growth company again.

 

[wipster]

You will need to qualify as an accredited investor and there will be a minimum investment which is likely at least $250K (if not multiple millions).

Afraid of that... Oh well...

 

[StealthP3D]

I’m guessing you sold MSFT in 1998 because you thought it was overvalued? It was dead money for so long. Getting back 2013 was really good timing. i’m curious about the thought process about your decision to finally get back into it after it had been dead money for so long. What did you see that made you feel like things were going to change?

I sold all my MSFT in 1998 because I found a company I thought was so under-valued it was a no-brainer, QCOM. I was getting a little uncomfortable with MSFT valuations but would have held on until I saw obvious signs of trouble except I had discovered QCOM which was far more compelling to me. At first it appeared I had made a huge mistake but I stuck to my guns (see, another archaic expression) for over a year and it ended up paying off in a big way.

As to getting back into MSFT, I had been under-invested for too long (had a lot of cash on hand) and wanted something safe. I noticed MSFT hadn't appreciated in a long time and that Balmer (whom always seemed like an egotistical bully to me) had announced he was stepping down so it seemed like a good opportunity. I think other investors thought it was a big risk not knowing who would be his successor but I figured the BoD would get to pick from a lot of proven talent and how could they pick someone worse than Balmer? So I took a chance. When they announced Satya Nadella I was super pleased and his performance exceeded my expectations! He's a person that "get's it". I think his job was made easier because Balmer's poor vision had left him with a lot of opportunity simply by reversing Balmer's mistakes. In other words, there was a lot of pent up value there.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Great metaphors stand the test of time, long after whatever they referred to have been forgotten by history...

Yeah, nobody uses sailing analogies when referring to Tesla, yet the Governor of Texas used the phrase "hitting on all cylinders". He lacks an appropriate metaphor, imbued with the appropriate vision of the future of Tesla:

"No fire, No cylinders. Ludicrous Speed."​

Cheers!

 

[EV forever]

Great metaphors stand the test of time, long after whatever they referred to have been forgotten by history.

Today, we still say something has a "full head of steam" even though no one has seen a steam locomotive in a century.

We still say "we're setting sail", or when "the wind is at our backs", "we are full sails" even though no one has sailed on a ship which uses the wind to generate motion for longer than a century. In fact, even today, the act of guiding and navigating a ship is still called sailing even though the ship is powered by a motor!

There's no reason to assume people will stop saying "firing on all cylinders", "step on the gas", or using terms like turbo, turbocharger, or supercharger anytime soon. In fact...the Tesla fast charging network is called the Supercharger network even though that's a borrowed term!

Supercharger - Wikipedia

Anyone who has used Microsoft Office today still knows what the save icon looks like. It's this:

What the hell is this? No one has seen a floppy disk in decades. Yet the icon used for Save will never change, even though what it actually is will be forgotten in living memory someday. Why change an icon which is, well, iconic?

This is absolutely a true story - how icons stick!

I was clearing out some of old boxes from my PhD work - over 20 years old now and my 12 year old nephew walked in. Wanting to show-off on how hard it was in our old times - I waved a 3.5 inch floppy disk in front of him asking "do you even know what this is" He looked at it with deep concentration and finally answered

"Is this a 3-D printed model of the 'Save' icon"
I was speechless for a long time.

So, it doesn't matter where this icon came from, it will be forever remembered as the 'Save' button. So, we might as well keep 'firing on all cylinders'

 

[Off Shore]

That's a good slogan for the brand, but what we're looking for right now is a way to update the commonly used metaphor "firing on all cylinders".

Steam engines used coal fires, steam-driven pistons and cylinders ever since James Watt's patent in 1769. That's over 250 years ago now! Like the nautical terms that have crept into our language, I'm sure that usage is here to stay, but I think it's also the wrong metaphor for EVs, which have no steam, no pistons, no cylinders, and hopefully no fires (certainly no intentional ones!)

Is there some commonly-known invention from the past that we can pull forward to the present to power our new metaphor? It would be great if Nickola [ftfy] Tesla himself had an idea we could update or adapt for use in the modern era of EVs.

Cheers!

I should know better than this. Humming like a dynamo.

 

[StealthP3D]

I bet it would be much easier to design and build a new CT factory than duplicate a ModelY factory.
(Assuming the drivetrain is plaid and would be done this year at somewhere else)

It will almost certainly be cheaper to design and build a new Cybertruck factory than duplicate a Model Y factory but it won't be easier! The hard work is in figuring out how to manufacture something new. Even if it ends up being easier to manufacture they still have the difficult job of designing the factory for flow, efficiency and accuracy. This is where management and the top production engineers earn their compensation. And if they do a great job I think they will be richly rewarded! If not, they will fix it until it works right.

 

[Off Shore]

Maybe you guys could drop something in the Predictions thread to commemorate this discussion. (Full disclosure--I'm waiting for two trucks and zero Ys, so I'm following the issue closely.)

 

[StealthP3D]

Yeah, nobody uses sailing analogies when referring to Tesla, yet the Governor of Texas used the phrase "hitting on all cylinders". He lacks an appropriate metaphor, imbued with the appropriate vision of the future of Tesla:

"No fire, No cylinders. Ludicrous Speed."​

Cheers!

"Running on Plaid"?