Stuff like “pigs get slaughtered” coming from him is meaningless. Nobody knows what the peak is. Outside of this message board, 90% of people sell after 400% gains. Most people sell out of stocks like TSLA or AMZN during their rise , missing out on most on the gains Most people following Kramers advice miss out.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Tesla has no say whether they index includes them or not! It's not something they can opt out of.
CLK350
Member
There is much wisdom in sentences that appear benign on the surface. In this case, "bulls and bears make money; pigs get slaughtered" is a famous quote from Jesse Livermore's "bio", the classic "Reminiscences of a stock operator". Of course we are not traders here, but we are in luck - we can do both (if done wisely).
I had SP500 add at 70% likelihood leading up to this Friday.
A few thoughts.
The main concern of SP committee is probably liquidity and stability of their index. Adding a 400B$ company before a closed US trading day at a time when there is little liquidity in the markets would only make things worse.
I would guess there's a 10-20% chance TSLA will be added when wall street is back from the Hamptons and liquidity is back to 100% in the markets.
A quote from Bloomberg:
"S&P Dow Jones Indices, which oversees the index, rebalances it on a quarterly basis, but its components can shift more frequently, spokesman Ray McConville said by phone on Friday. “The index committee can make a change to the index at any time,” he said."
Interpreting the above quote - what else is he supposed to say? He can't state the issue outright, but if what I described is the problem, this is pretty much how it would play out.
A few thoughts.
The main concern of SP committee is probably liquidity and stability of their index. Adding a 400B$ company before a closed US trading day at a time when there is little liquidity in the markets would only make things worse.
I would guess there's a 10-20% chance TSLA will be added when wall street is back from the Hamptons and liquidity is back to 100% in the markets.
A quote from Bloomberg:
"S&P Dow Jones Indices, which oversees the index, rebalances it on a quarterly basis, but its components can shift more frequently, spokesman Ray McConville said by phone on Friday. “The index committee can make a change to the index at any time,” he said."
Interpreting the above quote - what else is he supposed to say? He can't state the issue outright, but if what I described is the problem, this is pretty much how it would play out.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Dunno. I think a lot of us here would agree with this tweet:
@garyblack00
S&P marches to its own beat. To not include $TSLA, the 8th largest U.S. company by mkt cap, who is single handedly transforming the global auto industry, after it generated a 2Q GAAP profit after being shut for 8 weeks while the rest of the industry lost $10B, is just mindless.
4:00 PM · Sep 4, 2020
S&P marches to its own beat. To not include $TSLA, the 8th largest U.S. company by mkt cap, who is single handedly transforming the global auto industry, after it generated a 2Q GAAP profit after being shut for 8 weeks while the rest of the industry lost $10B, is just mindless.
4:00 PM · Sep 4, 2020
Personally, I think this reflects upon the S&P Committee, not on Gary Black. Never underestimate the influence of the 'old boys club' on Wall St. Now they're steaming head-long to irrelevance.
Cheers!
Just chill everyone...
It is a bit tough to judge Battery Day impact as there is no presedence. On autonomy day they did announce technical marvels but those flew over analysts' heads. And yes those chips went into cars immediately but it didn't necessarily cause a frenzy in orders as FSD was still years out. However if on battery day they announce new cells in Plaid/Palladium with order books open that is an entirely different ball game. Imagine what it will do to S/X sales which have been on life support for the past year.
On the other hand @Troy has 95% confidence in 140k+ Q3 deliveries which will be an absolute blowout and will cause another set of SP target hikes and talking heads on TV gasps for air.
This is a one-two punch people.
It is a bit tough to judge Battery Day impact as there is no presedence. On autonomy day they did announce technical marvels but those flew over analysts' heads. And yes those chips went into cars immediately but it didn't necessarily cause a frenzy in orders as FSD was still years out. However if on battery day they announce new cells in Plaid/Palladium with order books open that is an entirely different ball game. Imagine what it will do to S/X sales which have been on life support for the past year.
On the other hand @Troy has 95% confidence in 140k+ Q3 deliveries which will be an absolute blowout and will cause another set of SP target hikes and talking heads on TV gasps for air.
This is a one-two punch people.
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CLK350
Member
I don't bear a grudge against Gary for being wrong - in fact have respect for him having the guts to take a position and good rationale, plus good overall info. Like this follow up
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I think they are just dumb. They recommend average products and exclude excellent products for dumb reasons. And they obviously don't know how to use Tesla AP or they wouldn't have published that video showing them "cheating".
Being beaten to the draw by someone who sleeps 23 hours a day must be pretty disappointing...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
0.5% is an extraordinarliy low fee for the Croupier's fee. I'd look again at the list of culprits making those sales. Something tells me those shares were all purchased for internal (book-keeping) use.
Guess we'll know more when the 10Q comes out in late Oct. Unless there is an actual S&P announcement before the end of Q3 (confounding variable).
Cheers!
engle
Member
At $500/share the price got way ahead of the underlying business. The steep climb on no news from the company except a split and S&P 500 possibility signals a peak for now.
Nothing happening, rain has stopped all work. Lots of standing water, with some small gullies cut by runoff.
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
It looks like they had torrential downpours the previous day (and probably overnight as well).
4-day Labor Day weekend for all!
No, this doesn't make sense. If Tesla felt they needed more money in the bank for security then they would have done a straight cap-raise at $500, end of story. Makes no sense to have this type of cap-raise as there's no guarantee on the income - $TSLA could trade side-ways at $400 for a year now and they would have left a lot of money on the table, well not money, but more dilution.
I'm 100% convinced it was for the SPY guys and I'm 100% convinced there were discussions behind the scenes to smooth things out a bit, the question is whether SPY hold it's end of the bargain or comes with a last-minute force-majeure.
I expect either inclusion next week still.
Main trading overlaps between the US and Europe from 15:30 - 18:30 (I think), plus the US pre-pre-market, to which index funds surely have access, starts in the US around 2 hours after opening in Frankfurt, so I don't really see announcing AH when all markets are open on the next trading day. But indeed, announcing with a full trading day in Europe might be seen as tricky.
But honestly, the volumes in Europe are peanuts and the prices snap to the US as soon as trading starts, so I'm not even sure it's a big deal, seems today they just did the reshuffling of the pack, they'll announce the new adds newt week. Who knows, maybe they'll put $TSLA into the S&P100 at the same time too, that would be interesting.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Elon, a man who started into rocketry,
to launch a global satellite network,
so that he can tweet when he is in his plane on the way home.
those billionaires don’t take a minor inconvenience lightly if they can find a way to meet their needs, do they?
Gotta love a man with such dedication and level of execution.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
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