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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Reminder that Tesla was at 180 feb 20 last year.
Then it slid to 80 by March 17 starting with a massive sell off where it looked like some stop losses triggered in series right before market close with less than 5 minutes to go.
It was back up to 160 by April 29.

On august 31 it was 498.
Sept 8 it was at 330 following 20% AH drop in one day when s and p 500 inclusion didn’t happen when expected.
It was back at 440 by sept 17.

It’s very much a terrifying ride that’s just Tesla. And all things considered for what Tesla has lined up for this year this is potentially the most exciting year for the company since the successfully mass produced the model s.
Another way to look at it is that TSLA is usually 2-3x the amplitude of Nasdaq direction. What's considered a correction is about 20%, multiply that by 3. Here we are a weathered bunch, unfazed by anything less than 60% draw-down. We know, the ride back up is going to be ludicrous.
 
Here is my proven method to get over our recent paper losses:

Step 1) Watch the most recent All-in podcast and laugh along with the Besties at Chamath for losing $2 Billion last week. Think to yourself "it can always be worse" (blissfully ignoring the fact that you first need to have billions to lose billions).

Step 2) Watch Rob Maurer's 2030 TSLA valuation exercise, take a deep breath, and smile about the future.

Step 3) (optional) Take one shot of Teslaquila.

Repeat as necessary.
Am doing #3 right now. Not Teslaquila, but a poor substitute.

and yet, it works
 
TL;DR on Sandy's interview with Zen Matoshi of Faraday Future:
1. Ones from backgrounds that faced adversity are more innovative, inventive, driven.
1.1. Sandy has an excellent illustration of corporate bureaucracy that crushes and uses vital lifelines as shim under a shaky tables (Starts at 6:45)
1.2 Managing politics, promotions, obligations kills the innovation programs, and the boards are the ones killing (e.g. EV1)
2. Legacy automakers are riddled with debt obligations, including to unions to the tune of multiples of their current valuations
2.1. They can't even walk away from their real estate, since they have to do reclamation, and downsizing costs
2.2. Such downsizing can happen really quickly, and Sandy witnessed that in the 80's, where Japanese automakers ate into big 3's what seemed like overnight
2.3. There are 600 native EV startups/companies
2.3.1. Xi directed to consolidate, Sandy expects to 150
2.3.2. They are trained by western specialists, so these are not going to be Yugos with panel gaps.
3. Faraday future looks like a new version of Maybach inside
3.1. They're looking forward to autonomous future
3.1.2. doesn't seem like they're working on that, so we may see a waymo-like atrocity on top, or whenever nvidia/mobileye come up with smth)
3.2.3. Their software is a version of Android
3.3.4. They are proud of their migrating profile that applies the settings from one car to another, and also from one seat within a car to another.
3.3.5. My conclusion - if they've got that figured out, with OTA, VW should just buy them, or keep building out the windows phone of cars : )

Full interview here
 

It is a Possibility.​

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Would you tell me what are the clues that Tesla is close/at its bottom? I learned from the 2000 crash that the big stock brokers (TDAmeritrade, Schwab, Fidelity....) always know the market direction because they have all sell and buy orders. They communicate with each others. The after hours traders have friends in those stock brokers, so they also know.
 
I agree that a dozen tailwinds are coming this year, and FSD should be the biggest.

FUDsters on Seeking Alpha and Yahoo News are telling each other that Tesla is losing market share and therefore doomed. EV competition from "real automakers" has arrived, they say, and is eating Tesla's lunch. These halfwits can't seem to grasp that the EV market is expanding, and the lunch being eaten is ICE sales, not Tesla's.

But fully functional FSD will instantly destroy all FUD about competition for years. Cars that can drive themselves will make all others obsolete, and make investors start pricing in Tesla Network. Before that happens is likely the last opportunity to buy TSLA in the triple digits.

When will it happen? Elon says this year, and maybe well before year-end.

 
This new forum software is very GenX friendly. Lol ICQ, AIM and Yahoo.
 

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Would you tell me what are the clues that Tesla is close/at its bottom? I learned from the 2000 crash that the big stock brokers (TDAmeritrade, Schwab, Fidelity....) always know the market direction because they have all sell and buy orders. They communicate with each others. The after hours traders have friends in those stock brokers, so they also know.
The clue is the stock price stops going down.