Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

. It only takes a year to replicate a factory using existing technology.

Can you cite me some examples of a large EV battery factory being replicated in only a year?

I ask because LG which is a major player in this field appears to be taking more like 2-3 years to get one up and running (longer to reach full production).

Likewise CATL appears to also take 2-3 years to build the factory, and a while beyond that to reach full production at it. (for example their first german factory broke ground in 2019, is expected to be running by late 2021 if not early 2022, but not full employment until 2024-2025)

I wouldn't throw my hands up and say 50% EV's by 2027 is physically impossible

So you think Elon is wrong when he said he expected only 10 million non-Tesla EVs being produced a year before 2030?

What mistakes do you think he was making when he came to that conclusion?

But you are doing a good job of parroting the objections I hear the naysayers make all the time.

I'm sorry you find Elon and I to be naysayers, rather than bringers of fact-based realistic optimism.

30 million EVs, 2/3rds of which are made by Tesla, before 2030 is a massive improvement from where we are today.

Legacy keeps dragging their feet to varying degrees-and until that changes, epsecially among the big players- you're going to have limits to how many EVs can be built in a year.

But ultimately it's absolutely the batteries that are the limiting factor.

Elon understood this clearly, and it's why Tesla will be the one making 2/3rds of those 30 million EVs before 2030.

VW and to a lesser extent GM seems to be starting to realize "It's the batteries, stupid" as well, but you've still got Ford "studying" the idea of battery production.... and Toyota dumping $ into lobbying to try and push off "this whole EV thing" in the first place.

 

[Curt Renz]

Did the April prod/delivery #'s come out yet? Maybe I missed it?

Those are reported quarterly, hence next in early July.

 

[StealthP3D]

Reuters - 13 minutes ago: Autopilot could not have been functioning in Tesla Texas crash, NTSB says

Excerpts:

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) said testing showed Autopilot could not have been functioning in an April 17 Tesla Model S fatal crash near Houston, Texas because a key feature could not have been in use, according to a preliminary report released Monday...

The NTSB also said footage from the owner’s home security cameras showed the owner entering the driver’s seat and the passenger entering the front passenger seat.

Thank you NTSB for confirming what was already plainly obvious before the media got their hands on the story. And I think that Sheriff could have reviewed the security footage of them entering the car to go for a drive before claiming they were "100% certain" no one was in the driver's seat. Or learned how Autopilot actually works. In hindsight, this announcement probably seems obvious to many but what I find notable are the number of Tesla owners who had some doubt as to whether anyone was in the driver's seat or not.

 

[winfield100]

way way OT
on an otherwise dreary day
(note the use of satellite modules for simulated drums?)

perhaps the SpaceX folks will do a cover version of something appropos

 

[TheTalkingMule]

And they are 'headline only' articles because the article itself would make the media look stupid for not fact checking and publishing false information...

The Bloomberg update article is utterly absurd. They're given clear as day evidence this is just a guy getting into a car and launching it......and they throw out lines like:

The headline refers to a "Mysterious Tesla Crash". We have video of a guy getting into a car and wrecking it, what's so mysterious?

"...the NTSB didn’t specifically say whether the driver was still operating the car, the preliminary report at least suggests that was possible" Leaving aloft the idea this guy magically jumped into the back seat in the 5 seconds between 0 and 100mph. I mean 60 year olds do that all the time. I guess it's possible he didn't magically leap into the back seat.

"An NTSB test of a similar vehicle showed other automated driving features could have been activated" Implying this guy got in the driver's seat, took off, and then moved a cinder block onto the seat and dummy hand onto the wheel. All while jumping into the back seat in 5 seconds.

Unbelievable.

 

[StealthP3D]

Can you cite me some examples of a large EV battery factory being replicated in only a year?

A factory to build an entire car requires more robots, more heavy machines, more complexity, vs. a battery factory.

Tesla built their China factory and was pumping out cars in less than a year.

So you think Elon is wrong when he said he expected only 10 million non-Tesla EVs being produced a year before 2030?

What mistakes do you think he was making when he came to that conclusion?

Oh, Lordy, not this again!

Elon never estimated battery production in 2027. And a projection on how many cars competitors might build at a future date is just that - a projection, not a conclusion.

 

[asburgers]

Wut?

"Carefully worded @NTSB_Newsroom report suggests the driver in fatal Texas @Tesla crash was driving -- at least initially."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1391834948538142720

 

[StealthP3D]

"An NTSB test of a similar vehicle showed other automated driving features could have been activated" Implying this guy got in the driver's seat, took off, and then moved a cinder block onto the seat and dummy hand onto the wheel. All while jumping into the back seat in 5 seconds.

Unbelievable.

You forgot the part where he buckled the seatbelt only to unbuckle it after the crash (but before he died) to confuse investigators.

 

[Tslynk67]

We had a fairly terrible game-show over here called Bullseye.

Inevitably the contestants failed to win the star prize and the host’s catchphrase ‘come and see what you could’ve won’ has since passed into fairly common use.

I‘ve yet to try it on Christmas morning...... Might have to this year unless TSLA bucks up!

You can't beat a bit of Bully!

 

[Knightshade]

A factory to build an entire car requires more robots, more heavy machines, more complexity, vs. a battery factory.

Apparently not.

Since as I cited, all the major non-tesla battery makers take FAR longer than the 1 year you claimed to build a factory.


hence why I asked you to provide examples of battery factories going up that fast and it seems you admit you can't?

Tesla built their China factory and was pumping out cars in less than a year.

Cars, yes.

Not batteries.

Your idea it's easier to build a battery factory does not appear to be factually correct based on actual timelines of construction of both.

Oh, Lordy, not this again!

Elon never estimated battery production in 2027

He estimated # of EVs produced.

Which- as I understand and you seem to keep denying, is primarily limited by batteries

His estimate was 30 million EVs, total, 20 million coming from Tesla, 10 million from everyone else.


So do you think Elons estimate is wrong?

Battery cell production is the fundamental rate-limiter slowing down a sustainable energy future

Do you think his repeated insistence batteries are the most gating factor in EV production is incorrect?

 

[CanadaEV]

Fresh questions???
WSJ

Let’s keep it a fearfully uncertain doubtful event

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You forgot the part where he buckled the seatbelt only to unbuckle it after the crash (but before he died) to confuse investigators.

He could've just buckled it and then sat down. I remember people doing that when seatbelt warning alarms first became standard.

Any way you slice it, their scenarios are all borderline physically impossible and are presented as still quite likely. Ridiculous.

 

[Curt Renz]

WSJ - 20 minutes ago: NTSB Raises New Questions About Fatal Tesla Crash in Texas

Algobots often only read headlines. The main headline suggests a negative spin, while the article begins:

Federal safety officials have raised fresh questions about a fatal April crash involving a Tesla Inc. TSLA -6.18% car, including doubts that the vehicle’s driver-assistance feature could have been engaged and whether an early assumption that nobody was at the wheel at the time of the incident was correct.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Those are reported quarterly, hence next in early July.

I assume the question was about Chinese numbers. They do come out monthly. But no I haven't seen any for April.

 

[wipster]

Ooo, Ford F-150 Lightning... I'm shakin' in my boots...

/s

 

[PeterJA]

I have set my positions and expectations accordingly. My frustration centers around my own personal situation where I no longer have years to wait for the momentum to build, P/E to drop and all the good things to fall into place. While I'm fortunate to have been around for the run-up, I don't believe I will be so fortunate to wait another 3, 5 or 10 years for the next leg.

I'm not naïve - I've got 9 years on this board. My original post was simply commiserating over the ups and down of TSLA. No more, no less.

Call me overoptimistic, but I don't believe the next leg up will take years. @The Accountant predicted a blowout Q2, and I don't think he included FSD progress. (Please correct me if wrong.) FSD Beta 9 is due any minute, and Elon said it's a game changer. Yes, his estimates have been wrong before, but less wrong lately.

Seven weeks remain in this quarter. That's a long time to get out a software release due any minute, and if we don't see it then, I have to believe we will in Q3. Game-changing improvement will allow Tesla to recognize more FSD revenue, and boost new FSD sales and (forthcoming) subscriptions. But that's not the biggest likely catalyst.

FSD is a time-bomb ticking under the transportation industry and Tesla's stock price. Most of Wall Street won't believe in robotaxis until they see them, but when they do, and see that Tesla is clearly headed for global dominance in robotaxis and robotrucks... look out.

Elon said that will happen this year. I still believe him.

 

[Rb48888]

WSJ - 20 minutes ago: NTSB Raises New Questions About Fatal Tesla Crash in Texas

Algobots often only read headlines. The main headline suggests a negative spin, while the article begins:

Federal safety officials have raised fresh questions about a fatal April crash involving a Tesla Inc. TSLA -6.18% car, including doubts that the vehicle’s driver-assistance feature could have been engaged and whether an early assumption that nobody was at the wheel at the time of the incident was correct.

I'm generally pretty zen about media FUD, but this one gets my goat.

Headline should have read, "NTSB Raises New Questions About Media Reports of Fatal Tesla Crash in Texas"

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Such a heartbreaking stock to hold. I don't have much to add here, just watching my portfolio slowly get eroded every day hoping that the winds will change, but never do. I still haven't ventured into Put buying, as history has taught me to stay in my lane as far as Options trading goes. Selling OTM calls seems to have garnered the most consistent results, and so I sit and HODL, selling some Calls every few weeks for lower and lower premiums, but man, the last few weeks have been frustrating as it feels like all I keep hearing is "Next quarter will be better" even though every quarter has been something that few outside of this board thought would ever be achievable five years ago. The FSD tweets are frustrating as well, and discussion around the timeline should just stop, as it's been laughably wrong to date. The progress is happening, but talking about it as if it is constantly around the corner is only hurting credibility.

I'm unfortunately at a crossroads in my own life where I may not have the option to play the long game for as long as I'd like, and that makes it tough to HODL through these times, and I need to remind myself of the spectacular run last year, and just how far we have actually come.

I feel far from alone in this prolonged feeling of malaise, and tell myself to keep on walking through these valleys as nothing has changed in the company, or the mission, but man, these walks get tiring sometimes.

Definite buy signal.

 

[Christine69420]

Me after today's stock action

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I'm generally pretty zen about media FUD, but this one gets my goat.

Headline should have read, "NTSB Raises New Questions About Media Reports of Fatal Tesla Crash in Texas"

Anyone really think it was just a random selection of words that happened to make the headline include Tesla, Autopilot and not functioning instead of something more neutral or Tesla positive which is what the actual report says. I mean if they couldn't figure out something fair they could have gone with the headline the report actually used.