Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

Data last updated Jun 08, 2021 08:02 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$624.87 +19.74 (+3.26%)
Pre-Market Volume	706,109
Pre-Market High	$626 (05:33:32 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$596.05 (04:00:00 AM)

China demand FUD unravelling. Tesla on track for 100+K deliveries from Giga Shanghai in Q2.

Cheers!

 

[larmor]

Actually that’s great if the market responds positively to factual numbers and not violently react to rumors. Tesla making durable goods it’s more important for the market to react to actual numbers. This is a great sign and as always, every car they make is already sold.

Ok, so the China nunbers were good, but the 44/45k number which was supposedly corroborated by multiple sources was totally nonsense?

Wish everyone out there on the interwebs (bulls, bears, and media) would stop posting their “rumors from a source”. It’s all hogwash.

There’s just about one remaining inside source I trust, and he has been “Wright” just about every time that I can remember.

 

[Unpilot]

I look forward to GoJo’s take

Not me......that clown show got old a long time ago.
Now I am only interested as he relates to GU as a scale of SP.

 

[MABMAB]

Ok, so the China nunbers were good, but the 44/45k number which was supposedly corroborated by multiple sources was totally nonsense?

Wish everyone out there on the interwebs (bulls, bears, and media) would stop posting their “rumors from a source”. It’s all hogwash.

There’s just about one remaining inside source I trust, and he has been “Wright” just about every time that I can remember.

these discussions lower themselves at times to the least intelligent stuff

Tesla FSD Subscription May Feature Options Including 'Weekend Mode' & 'Travel Mode'

The FSD Subscription is a hotly anticipated update that will become available over the next few weeks. At the moment, the company has not provided any details of the feature, however, according to unofficial information, the FSD Subscription will be available for various periods from several days.

www.tesmanian.com

“Tesla may offer "weekend mode" and "travel mode.” While no details have been obtained as to what these actually are, the names hint at what these modes could represent. For those Tesla owners who are accustomed to using FSD in their daily trips, it can be a big problem when they have to travel not in their own car. Therefore, the ability to activate FSD for just a few days would be a big blessing for them.”

“…users will be able to subscribe to FSD for various periods (one week, one month, six months, etc.) Tesla has developed an interesting new subscriptions page that will allow for various customizations, such as enabling auto-renewal, updating billing address/details, downloading PDF invoices, and so forth.”

man I love reporting of what may or might be, it fits in round here these days

 

[Singuy]

With all the reported leaks, very strongly feel 4680 will be in the Plaids. If they are ready for Austin and Berlin to start Y based production in a few months... Why would they not be used already in low volume products?

Plaid is also reported to deliver peak power from 0, all the way to the top speed. IMHO, that's something could not be possible if it was the 18650.

S/X will continue to use the 18650s, there's no reason to give away a big chunk of cell capacity when being battery constrained.

BD was over 9 months ago, and it was mentioned Tesla was running cars with 4680s back then even. I personally don't expect much on the range front, maybe round out to 420, or go full memelord at 469 - but, showing the world that 4680s are now shipping in cars, beginning with the most expensive cars they make is the most bullish news one could wish for.

Don't know how any times the Ceo, Bill, and others who work for Tesla say it's not the 4680s in current Plaid before bulls stop thinking it is. Maybe Munro needs to tear it apart before this eventually sinks in.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ok, so the China nunbers were good, but the 44/45k number which was supposedly corroborated by multiple sources was totally nonsense?

It wasn't an estimate as much as it was a calculation based on nameplate capacity for the two lines. I reproduced that calculation last week when the 44K rumor first broke. If you correct for the number of production days per month, then the prediction was exactly 1 car/day off of the nameplate capacity.

Too much coincidence for it to be an estimate based on ground truth, while also exactly inline with the FUDsters practice of tossing high forecasts in an (now failed) attempt to create a miss.

That didn't work. Nor did the unsubstantiated net orders b.s. from last week. Shortzes needed a drop. Now TSLA up.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[jbcarioca]

It will be interesting to watch how and when this is launched. This subscription approach stands to Osborn full purchases which will dip the revenue stream.

Activating this option could add a little bump to the quarter if it hits after/if a full purchase dip happens. If the charge is monthly up front, then this subscription revenue from a wave of curious subscribers will tend to give a bump.

Updates revealed to be eminent just as subs renew will tend to hold subs from cancelling. We could see updates coming the 3rd week of the month perhaps.

The FSD purchases probably will not change much with subscriptions, especially in the more expensive models. That model will expand the FSD market rather than conquer purchases. Subscription models that have regular upgrade advantages included (e.g. Apple iPhone) do accelerate purchase cycles. With FSD the model will draw mostly people who could not afford buying it or just want to try before buying.

As for Osborning, that applies to superior technology driving out inferior technology and has nothing to do with the relative impact of having multiple adoption pricing options for the same product.

Without question, were there to be variable costs, there could be a revenue dip from the subscription model. There isn't, since the marginal cost of FSD is trivial, not zero, but trivial. Revenues will continue to rise as FSD deliverables allow accounting recognition of reserves. Because of the accounting issues there will be precisely zero negative income effect for FSD. Were there to be significant defection from purchase to subscription (there will NOT be) the only effect will be on cash flow, and that will not be very material.

(I have stated these opinions as facts because I believe them to be. Others, like @The Accountant , can speak with authority on the P&L consequences of these developments. There are numerous potential analogies for the purchase vs subscription models. Many of these (e.g Jeppeson for aircraft, 'rent to own' in numerous arenas, 'Power by the Hour') are imprecise analogies simply because there has not been this kind of product before. Thus, except for accounting issues, this is really new.)

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

With all the reported leaks, very strongly feel 4680 will be in the Plaids. If they are ready for Austin and Berlin to start Y based production in a few months... Why would they not be used already in low volume products?

I hope you are right but I doubt it.

The problem isn't if they have enough 4680 for the first couple of months of plaids now. That's only a few thousand cars. I think they do. But the battery factories in Berlin and Austin is unlikely to produce any batteries until after the new year. I wouldn't be surprised if the total number of plaids made will be higher than the total number of cars made in Berlin and Austin until sometime in late Q1. Maybe even into Q2.

So having 4680s in plaids means Kato would have to produce twice as many batteries for the next nine months or so than if they were only stockpiling for Berlin and Austin. The battery factories there won't have any real production until about that time next year.

If, and like I said I think that's a big if, they have 4680s in the plaids that's a very bullish sign. Not only for Kato but it indicates that Tesla should be able to have an incredible fast roll out of 4680s in 2022 when the battery production in Berlin and Austin ramps.

 

[traxila]

Think we have a lot of retail shorts caught with their pants down. Big players have been accumulating in 500s past couple of weeks.

Everyone loves a good retail short burn.

Given Thursday’s event and the SP strength in mid 500s we may have some legs here. 650 to 700 by Thursday PM?

Absolutely do not listen to me. I am kinda like the board jester around here.

 

[Don TLR]

Ironically, whenever somebody leaves Tesla this forum seems to make one of the biggest stinks about it, lol.

You mean Dana Hull and Lora, Dana wrote hit pieces for everyone with a name leaving Tesla, she even once wrote one for the head janitor leaving when she was in extreme FUD mode..

 

[RubberToe]

The CNCDA data is out for the first quarter. Tesla has 5.3% market share in California. EV sales are at 8.1% YTD versus 6.2% in 2020. The Model Y is the 3rd best selling car in the state:

Toyota RAV4: 17226
Toyota Camry: 15526
Model Y: 13786

Starting in Q2-21 the Model Y will be the best seller in California for the foreseeable future.

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-21.pdf

 

[Unpilot]

I am kinda like the board jester around here.

Sorry that position is already filled.

 

[phantasms]

Unless they stick one 4680 in the cup holder as a “sorry about the timeline” gift, it’s not happening folks.

 

[traxila]

Sorry that position is already filled.

Happy to be the understudy.

 

[jbcarioca]

Don't know how any times the Ceo, Bill, and others who work for Tesla say it's not the 4680s in current Plaid before bulls stop thinking it is. Maybe Munro needs to tear it apart before this eventually sinks in.

You're obviously correct, but can you seriously think any of us can stop having adolescent fantasies? Just consider how seriously deranged all of us must be who are actually buying these things! Rationality in the face of a Bugatti Veyron beating daily driver is impossible. Just let us continue deluding ourselves. Tesla should just take our money and give us our new toys!

I should insert suitable visual aids featuring adolescent fantasies of various kinds. I will not because I'm very old. Because I am obviously in my second adolescence (assuming I ever left the first one) I'm not really inclined towards visual aids for my fantasies.

Now, just consider how many such people are actually about to buy these things. This goes back to 2014 and P85D that really transformed the Tesla image in a popular way. The new one is doing that again.

Thus: we want our 4680's!!

A serious note: all those people who are trying to view the new S and X on a rational product basis are completely missing the point. The 'halo' effect is very real and is worth huge amounts of money. That is why the video games are so critical to the mission. When children (of any age) love the brand because it si so much fun they'll grow up to buy products. Tesla is thinking long term.

 

[Unpilot]

Man I hate Gizmodo. As a tech geek it pains me to see this kind of crap.

Elon Musk Paid $0 in Federal Income Tax in 2018: Report

You might not be as rich as Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos, but you probably paid more in taxes than they did.

gizmodo.com

 

[willow_hiller]

Unless they stick one 4680 in the cup holder as a “sorry about the timeline” gift, it’s not happening folks.

We know there's something new about the Plaid battery packs, we just don't know exactly what's new about it. But it's different enough to necessitate extra safety testing. From the Q1 earnings call:

So with respect to the Model S and X, there were more challenges than expected in developing the Model S or what we call the Palladium program, which is the new version of Model S and X, which has revised interior and new battery pack and new drive units and new internal electronics and has, for example, a PlayStation 5 level infotainment system.

There's just a lot of issues encountered, ensuring that the new factory was as we're saying this was by far [Inaudible] smaller piece. So it took quite a bit of of development to ensure that the battery of the new S/X is safe. And we're trying to get all the -- in the cars slowly for the past few months. But we're just stacking them up in the yard and just making refinements to the cars that we built.

 

[Hock1]

With all the reported leaks, very strongly feel 4680 will be in the Plaids. If they are ready for Austin and Berlin to start Y based production in a few months... Why would they not be used already in low volume products?

Plaid is also reported to deliver peak power from 0, all the way to the top speed. IMHO, that's something could not be possible if it was the 18650.

S/X will continue to use the 18650s, there's no reason to give away a big chunk of cell capacity when being battery constrained.

BD was over 9 months ago, and it was mentioned Tesla was running cars with 4680s back then even. I personally don't expect much on the range front, maybe round out to 420, or go full memelord at 469 - but, showing the world that 4680s are now shipping in cars, beginning with the most expensive cars they make is the most bullish news one could wish for.

If the Plaid is running the 4680s, the Plaid IS (essentially) the Plaid +. It makes sense to me because I never really thought it made a lot of sense to have 4 high-priced, luxury cars in the lineup of the company that is captaining the transition to renewable energy. LR Model S, Plaid and Roadster seems about right. Looking forward to Thursday. GLTA.

 

[Nocturnal]

Gary nailed this one. We will see CNBC dance around TSLA all day.

I'll never understand why seemingly normal people visit those dark corners of the Internet.

I try my hardest to avoid TSLAQ myself but it's like trying to avoid cockroaches.

 

[Johan]

Gary nailed this one. We will see CNBC dance around TSLA all day.

Agreed his take on it is spot on. Question (honest question, not trying to be factitous): Do people watch CNBC? By "people" I mean people who actually buy and sell stocks. Is CNBC broadcast television, with commercial breaks and the whole thing - is that still "a thing" in the United States?