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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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My apologies if this has already been posted.


I’m wondering what sort of sensor could be used?
This will get political fast - not interested in 10 day suspension, so I will limit my comments to what impact I think this will have on Tesla. Short-term - none. If/when this becomes actual policy, then Tesla will likely implement this in the most effective way possible. Personally, I understand the motivation behind this and support it. This runs a little OT, but will explain the “why” of my position. To protect one of our kids (and others) we personally installed the current clunky technology on a car with an agreement signed by our son, that was legally enforceable allowing us to repossess the car in the event of violations or tampering. Happily he is now sober and on solid footing. Equally fortunate no one was injured from his multiple crashes due to not being sober prior to such a unit being on the car.

I suggest the majority of other discussion go to what I presume is another thread in the OT section.
 
My apologies if this has already been posted.


I’m wondering what sort of sensor could be used?

They're probably thinking breathalyzers.

This will get political fast - not interested in 10 day suspension, so I will limit my comments to what impact I think this will have on Tesla. Short-term - none. If/when this becomes actual policy, then Tesla will likely implement this in the most effective way possible. Personally, I understand the motivation behind this and support it. This runs a little OT, but will explain the “why” of my position. To protect one of our kids (and others) we personally installed the current clunky technology on a car with an agreement signed by our son, that was legally enforceable allowing us to repossess the car in the event of violations or tampering. Happily he is now sober and on solid footing. Equally fortunate no one was injured from his multiple crashes due to not being sober prior to such a unit being on the car.

I suggest the majority of other discussion go to what I presume is another thread in the OT section.

How about skipping the middle man and just make the car drive itself? ;)
 
Several of those are in segments in which Stellantis has very high market shares in Europe.

So please, when writing off Tesla competitors do a little homework.
Today the leading innovations around the world are coming from:
1. a variety of EU offerings that are largely split among smaller cars, a wide variety of trucks, mostly urban delivery and general use vehicles plus a wide variety of municipal and industrial vehicles.
2. a wide array of Chinese brands and vehicles in every category.

Since you appreciate dissenting views so much, I'll give you another one:

You can't appraise Tesla's competition as worthy future competition simply because they have good EV market share in Europe at present. Anything with four wheels and a battery will sell in limited numbers at the right price and since most of those vehicles are compliance vehicles designed to sell at a loss to allow sales of polluting vehicles at a profit they are not really a good indicator of anything. Right now it's enough to make a good EV because it's better than ICE and there is a shortage of EVs. But Tesla is constantly increasing volumes. So, what happens when these EV's actually start competing against one another?

Certainly, someone with as much business experience as yourself knows what happens to manufacturers who cannot produce nearly as efficiently as another manufacturer? So, I must conclude that you believe these other manufacturers will be able to, in time, match Tesla's cost to produce? I think you should reconsider that assumption in light of what we know about how lean Tesla is as a corporation and how they relentlessly innovate to reduce the cost of manufacture while improving the product. Sure, other manufacturers strive for that too but perhaps you can tell us why you think there will not be a huge gulf between Tesla and the rest in terms of production efficiency.

Thus we need to cheer those others along, just as Elon does. Tesla cannot succeed in the mission if other OEMs do not succeed also.

Again, I would ask you to reconsider in light of what we know. First, cheering on a company does not significantly increase their efficiency of manufacture. Secondly, the very idea that multiple manufacturers competing for a supply of batteries can more effectively complete the mission than the most efficient manufacturer, who essentially swallows the less efficient manufacturers, leaving the batteries for the most efficient manufacturer to deploy, is not logical. It might seem logical that more companies can produce more goods but isn't it obvious that one company, constantly growing in size and efficiency, can eventually do this the most effectively? Especially if their primary goal is to get as many EV's as possible into the market at the lowest possible price?

Sure, Tesla has recently raised the prices of their vehicles multiple times. But that is only because they know they can sell everyone they can make. I would suggest the price raising is what will strengthen their balance sheet and allow them to expand at unprecedented rates. And isn't that the beauty of capitalism? Specifically, it gives the most resources to those who show they can use them the most effectively?

When Tesla increases the speed and lowers the cost of production by implementing new innovations like structural batteries, giga castings, local supply chains, batteries manufactured on-site, etc, what they are really doing is reducing the carbon footprint of manufacture. That's much of the reason why the cost is lower. So, efficiency is important to the mission in more ways than simply lowering the price to speed adoption. A car that is produced more efficiently, embodies less carbon.

Perhaps early in the transition, it is good to have partners helping speed the mission. But how much help is it really when those 'partners' are building EV's primarily so they can continue to sell ICE products? The sooner the less efficient producers go bankrupt, the sooner they will stop putting brand new ICE cars on the road and the more batteries there will be for the most efficient manufacturers to put to good use.
 
My apologies if this has already been posted.


I’m wondering what sort of sensor could be used?
I had an Ex wife that was pretty good at sensing it.

But good question. I can't see mandatory breathalyzers, so AI is likely involved. Speech would be easiest I think, then driving behavior like weaving, or even eye movement would be my next best guess there (it's how cops evaluated on scene).

However, what tech will every company be able to produce reliably, I'm gonna go with a speech test. You must introduce yourself or read a random sentence on screen? There are issues there as well, so I honestly don't know.
 
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How about skipping the middle man and just make the car drive itself? ;)

That would of course be Tesla’s position. It seems rather obvious that breathalyzers now are a “PHEV-style” solution for autonomy given a large proportion of human-driver related morbidity and mortality is related to drunk driving. It’s a tech that could have been implemented into autos many, many years ago but will now be favored by legacy auto to buy more time in the autonomy department.
 
Yuk ! Stellantis is NOT making any decent EVs in europe. Most are compliance retrofits of old ICE models that are not competitive at all with even the VAG ID platform. They have bought some washing machine motors from whirlpool and some dodgy pouch batteries from alibaba /s. Numbers sold is rubbish apart from the FIAT500 in Italy, which I quite like the posh e-cabriolet, but is still a crazy price for what you get. Tesla drops its price at all after Berlin opens then the game is over. China is going to eat Stellantis too. The MG is popular now, but that is just the beginning.
I respectfully disagree. Your statement are mostly false. IT will go seriously OT to delve further into factual data. OTOH, you might actually want to try the 208 E-GT or an e-Ducato. then you might have basis to dismiss everything I have said.

I never said any of these were comparable with Tesla offerings.
 
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My apologies if this has already been posted.


I’m wondering what sort of sensor could be used?

They're probably thinking breathalyzers.
There’s already examples of software that can use the in cabin camera to tell if a driver is inebriated or not. Apparently this satisfies the new law
 
Since you appreciate dissenting views so much, I'll give you another one:
I don't really disagree with you very much. It is essential to the Tesla mission that Tesla not end out a monopolist. It is also essential to applaud those who try. So long as Tesla keep innovating they'll continue to dominate. Nobody ever in the world has succeeded in anything as a monopolist. That produces doom one way or another. Therefore I applaud efforts by others to do better, Unless they do Tesla will end out as a monopolist. That is never good.
 
There is Tesla' vision of the future automobile, and then there is... this


What did I just watch? Time to put BMW to pasture.
1638297246496.jpeg
 
It's been an ongoing problem for years and has turned off too many people to the brand. Some people even sold all their stock in the company because they felt the long term damage was going to be significant.
And some people (yes I am a data point), purposely stayed out of the stock for awhile evaluating this, and eventually concluded (after missing the rocket ship initial booster phase) after reading this thread deeply that Tesla will fix this at some point, and the investment is sound, and bought in, and continue to add to my investment as funds become available. I wish they would address it sooner, but I no longer worry that it will take them off track from an investment/performance perspective.
 
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My comments in context. I have lived in countries with absolute monarchy, with religious despots, with mercantilists.
None are desirable.
Tesla need competition to avoid complacency. I will do all I can to help that to happen because I am very long TSLA and want it to continue.
It will never happen if competition does not produce successes.
I will applaud efforts I think are worthy.
That excludes ones that are not. GM is a disgrace, and resembles Renault and other State controlled enterprises.
Ford retains some vestiges of free enterprise. I hope they succeed.
Icoudlgo on but that would be even more OT.
Tesla needs competition!
 
How about skipping the middle man and just make the car drive itself? ;)
Great solution, but what about all the people that could be helped/saved until that is reality for all cars. Until it is, I wouldn't hold high hopes that the people that need it are going to use such cars, regardless of whether they are available, and/or are ordered to do so. No offense, but your thought, while good, doesn't provide solace to those who are affected by the reality on the ground and likely to be the case until 2030 or beyond.
 
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I don't really disagree with you very much. It is essential to the Tesla mission that Tesla not end out a monopolist. It is also essential to applaud those who try. So long as Tesla keep innovating they'll continue to dominate. Nobody ever in the world has succeeded in anything as a monopolist. That produces doom one way or another. Therefore I applaud efforts by others to do better, Unless they do Tesla will end out as a monopolist. That is never good.

Well, I would be tickled if Tesla could outdo the Ford business model from the beginnings of the internal combustion age. 60% market share might not be a monopoly but no one could compete effectively with Ford. The only reason the others could exist at all was because some people couldn't wait to take delivery of a new car. Ford caused a huge number of less efficient producers to go belly up.
 
I hadn't even thought about where the fuse box is until now, lol.

This is a great example of 1st principle. They eliminated not just cost, space, or weight, but efficiency as you say. And I might add, it is way better than a blown fuse design. Any circuit that melts a wire (fuse) rated at 15A is in trouble if it even goes there. It likely melted some other connections, or pitted contacts etc...

Tesla could be using auto resettable fuses which can be very tiny on a circuit board (think 2x3mm small). They cost more than the fuse and I've used them. I don't know if we'd know this without a component teardown though.
I see a line of posting about this kind of stuff. If you want to really understand the nuts and bolts of Tesla
This is someone That does the best job I have seen on Youtube. He makes Sandy look like a grumpy has-been.
This one is on fuses...but he has dove deep and often..I think he works for Jbacarioca
will make your head spin
And after my head quits spinning I ask "WHY?"
Why would anyone not paid a significant amount of money with that skill set do what he is doing? He crushes it.
 
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There is vertical then there is Tesla vertical.


 
How about skipping the middle man and just make the car drive itself? ;)

This will make FSD more valuable. People will not want a car that tells them they had one too many drinks with dinner and they need to call a cab. Hal, the central computer, should put on his most soothing voice and say "May I suggest that you just relax and enjoy yourself while I drive you home." Only if the owner says "No, I'll handle it!" will Hal say, "I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't allow you to do that".
 
Well, I would be tickled if Tesla could outdo the Ford business model from the beginnings of the internal combustion age. 60% market share might not be a monopoly but no one could compete effectively with Ford. The only reason the others could exist at all was because some people couldn't wait to take delivery of a new car. Ford caused a huge number of less efficient producers to go belly up.
OTOH Charles Kettering alone helped make the Ford model obsolescent. Ford ddi become complacent and grew on and on by being cheaper but eventually technological innovation beat Ford. That is precisely what we hope never coms to Tesla. Manufacturing progress is magnificent, but not sufficient. Will Tesla; continue with product innovation when they have a huge market share?

I think so, as I do with SapceX and Starlink. Those are not assured. Only competition will force continuing innovation.
 
My apologies if this has already been posted.


I’m wondering what sort of sensor could be used?

A seat sensor triggering a simple algo query by the MCU to see if “gm” is the “leader” in terms of % shares held in your stock portfolio would suffice.