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Mad respect for Troy. I could never be this confident in my analysis or speak with such certainly if I had such a mediocre record.
Ignoring the stated numbers there are some 'facts' I haven't heard before:

Berlin&Texas ought to have combined Y&3 lines. With Fremont&Shanghai having distinct lines and not remembering any statement from Tesla regarding Model 3s at the new plants, does any one have a different source for this claim?

Likewise the no more space or any plans for a second line in Berlin claim. The original plans were for two lines, for which they also dug two trenches in BiW/GA area. In later permits they dropped down to one line. Whether they abandoned, delayed or integrated the second line is unknown AFAIK.
But wouldn't this contradict the first claim, as there shouldn't be any space for a second BiW line? Or is it normal at other OEMs, that the BiW line can build multiple different bodies and Tesla invested part of their savings from castings into this capability?

And finally he claims Shanghai has two lines only, the original 3 line and the new expansion with combined Y&3 capability. Isn't the concensus here and at least partially supported by local news stories, that there are 2 Y lines running and the second 3 line is ramping?
 
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Not the buildup .. but the french are quite rebellious. Going on Strike easily, threatening to shut down whole parts of the country etc. pp.

That CAN be a lot of hickups and bad press when things are running.. but you do get the factory up faster ;)
True, the cost of doing business around here.

FWIW it looks like the next giga will happen in China.
All the Germans can disagree as much as they like, China gets the job done, Germany does not. Fact.
 
The additional issue with nuclear is, it is the definition of "Baseline", most nuclear generator output graphs are a straight horizontal line,

So it only works well if there is a 24x7x365 Baseline demand that matches or exceeds the nuclear generator output, or if batteries, or some other load, soak up the excess when it occurs.

By definition solar and wind generation as well as demand, can and do vary by time of day, season, temperature and for many other reasons.

In contrast, batteries can respond in Milliseconds and can match any required charge/discharge pattern, very accurately.

If the price was right, most households, businesses, utilities, solar farms and wind farms would love to have an suitably sized energy storage battery.
The newer reactor designs have better load following capabilities than the installed base and the newest designs try to decouple the reactor and generator(s) with a heat buffer allowing for even faster adjustments and peak capability. E.g. reactor is 500MWe continuous while generator is sized for 1GWe and can reach peak for x hours using stored heat.

And that's the extent this topic overlaps with Tesla Energy, so further discussion might belong in a different thread until these plants a relevant competitor...
 
Everything I've seen talks of a production defect (actually two). Misaligned separator combined with a torn anode resulting in a future short.
Misaligned factory robot may have sparked Chevy Bolt battery fires


960 works out nicely to 96s10p, but that might be a little oversized. 96s9p is 864 cells. Depends how close they got to 5x energy per cell, and what their range goal is.
If they tweak pack voltage, they can adjust by 9 or 10 cell increments.
I'm not sure we've got the whole story on the table yet regarding the LG pouch cells.

What's more this is not just about the GM (Chevy Bolt), it is also about Hyundai (Kona), Renault (Zoe), VAG (ID3, some ID4, presumably ? the badge cloned Skodas and Seats as well) maybe others I missed and also LG residential battery storage. It may also affect some of the Li drop-in replacements for lead-acid 12V batteries made by LG (e.g. in Peugot e208/e2008).

(When I was figuring out the global battery supply picture I posted up over the last few days one of the more helpful googling sessions was searching for the number of affected recalled cars from each brand, as that set a lower bound on each OEM's take from LG).

So what's not yet being clearly stated ? How about : is this a manufacturing defect, or a design defect, or multiple defects ? Originally the accounts were fingering just one misaligned production machine in just one LG factory in China. But then it became apparet that an LG plant in S Korea was also producing affected cells. Now you can argue the toss whether the misaligned separator and torn anode are mechanical alignment issues traceable to manufacture or design ("we made it the way you designed it" - vs - "you didn't make it the way we designed it"), but it is not obvious that the immediate action of voltage limiting (keeping SoC above x% and below y%) are really addressing that issue. Instead most people driving a nickel-rich car are used to SoC management in order to stop dendrite growth causing premature cell failure. Yet the press accounts don't seem to be discussing that issue at all. Are these in fact even all the same chemistry ? Combined with the physical stresses of flexible pouches expanding and contracting as they charge and discharge and get hotter and colder, all stuffed together into a big tub shoehorned into whatever nook and cranny of the ICE-conversion-du-jour is in play. With whatever BMS the cost-cutters thought they could get away with, set to deliver the range that the marketeers insisted on, irrespective of the consequences. And when did it start ....... because for sure it doesn't just neatly only affect things that were just made during one calendar year and are still in-warranty.

The known recall costs and apportionments that I noted down in my research so far are:
Hyundai / LG = $900m combined writedown @ 30/70 split, i.e. $630m to LG
GM / LG = $1900m combined, $1200 of which to LG

Frankly the press are not paying enough attention here, either the motoring press or the financial press. Do they have the skills to join the dots ? And where are the regulatory authorities in all this - highly conspicuous by their absence and lack of curiousity imho.

Despite all this LG doubled cell production, from 34 GWh in 2021 to 62 GWh in 2022, enough to go from half-a-million-cars to one-million-cars at the typical pack sizes we have in play here.

Replacing 34 GWh of cells at (say) $100/kWh is a $3,400-million problem. Just the known Hyundai and GM contributions together add to $1,830-million.

Oh yeah, and all in the same period of time when LG Chem was spinning out LG Energy Solutions (i.e. the battery business) into a separately quoted (listed) stock with an IPO. Whilst desperately sweeping all this under the carpet.

Like I said, I'm not sure all this story is on the table yet.
 
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….
Do you have any idea how much GM would have to pay for cells if they didn't assume some of the risk?
The Bolt was entirely designed in Korea. The project was joint between LG and GM Korea. Since there was extensive ‘cross pollination’ with the team the specific responsibilities allegedly became somewhat ambiguous. This has been analyzed by several entities. Nearly all direct costs of the fleet recall, battery replacement and BMS/controls upgrades was paid by LG. That implies the relative roles. They all have worked hard to keep details mostly undisclosed.

My personal, view based on work in Korea during the Daewoo acquisition by GM, is that GM Korea did styling and BIW while LG did everything else. GM Korea designs are all deeply dependent on tier one suppliers.

That settlement pretty much does tell the story. That GM sticks with LG afterwards is informative.
 

Tesla sold 59845 vehicles in China in January 2022, which is obviously lower than the 70847 in December, so I expect on one side a surprised market (oh my, demand problems!) and on the other side MM's trying to make a buck out of this.
 

Tesla sold 59845 vehicles in China in January 2022, which is obviously lower than the 70847 in December, so I expect on one side a surprised market (oh my, demand problems!) and on the other side MM's trying to make a buck out of this.

That's not what CPCA reported. There were 19.4k cars sold in China (that's the "Retail" sales), and 40.5K cars exported (that's the "Wholesale" number, which does not include thousands of cars sitting on the dock at the end of January waiting to be exported).

Reuters headline is purposefully obtuse. Any negative spin they can sell is good for them. Here's a better source for CPCA numbers:

Moneyball on Twitter: "Tesla MIC Jan wholesale: 59,845 Export: 40,499 Retail: 19,346 (CPCA) https://t.co/P0I0ayb5Eg" / Twitter

The only relevent comparison is Oct retail (1st mth of Qtr while factory build schedule focuses on cars for export markets). Oct 2021 was only 15K retail. Jan 2022 is a runaway winner for China sales, while exports vary so much month to month its necessary to wait for the quarterly totals.

In a few weeks, we will get a separate estimate for China's monthly production numbers. This should at least put some bounds on export-intended production. But again, this is really an unuseful comparison because we never know on which date that Giga Shanghai cuts over production from export spec to local spec cars.
 
This gives a feel for the year-on-year changes in the various battery suppliers' positions. It would seem sensible to me for Panasonic to keep their wagon hitched to the Tesla horse, because otherwise they ain't going to the race given that team-Japan seem to be either a no-show or a very late entrant.


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That's not what CPCA reported. There were 19.4k cars sold in China (that's the "Retail" sales), and 40.5K cars exported (that's the "Wholesale" number, which does not include thousands of cars sitting on the dock at the end of January waiting to be exported).

Reuters headline is purposefully obtuse. Any negative spin they can sell is good for them. Here's a better source for CPCA numbers:

Moneyball on Twitter: "Tesla MIC Jan wholesale: 59,845 Export: 40,499 Retail: 19,346 (CPCA) https://t.co/P0I0ayb5Eg" / Twitter

The only relevent comparison is Oct retail (1st mth of Qtr while factory build schedule focuses on cars for export markets). Oct 2021 was only 15K retail. Jan 2022 is a runaway winner for China sales, while exports vary so much month to month its necessary to wait for the quarterly totals.

In a few weeks, we will get a separate estimate for China's monthly production numbers. This should at least put some bounds on export-intended production. But again, this is really an unuseful comparison because we never know on which date that Giga Shanghai cuts over production from export spec to local spec cars.
Also relevant to look at yoy numbers which Tesla is over 200%+