Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

QQQ (U.S. Tech macros) have turned green in the past few minutes. Not sure on any news, anybody see something of interest?

TSLA lagging (of course), but also recovering (just slower)

Cheers!

Seems to be inline with other megacaps as I don't see any of them positive yet premarket.

Edit, ha now we are lagging.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Seems to be inline with other megacaps as I don't see any of them positive yet premarket.

Edit, ha now we are lagging.

Lot of volume in QQQ beginning at 07:39 so maybe a whale buying in the pre-Market:

TSLA did a similarly timed jump, but laggy. Other big Cap stocks took off at the some time.

 

[mongo]

That's not what CPCA reported. There were 19.4k cars sold in China (that's the "Retail" sales), and 40.5K cars exported (that's the "Wholesale" number, which does not include thousands of cars sitting on the dock at the end of January waiting to be exported).

Reuters headline is purposefully obtuse. Any negative spin they can sell is good for them. Here's a better source for CPCA numbers:

Moneyball on Twitter: "Tesla MIC Jan wholesale: 59,845 Export: 40,499 Retail: 19,346 (CPCA) https://t.co/P0I0ayb5Eg" / Twitter

The only relevent comparison is Oct retail (1st mth of Qtr while factory build schedule focuses on cars for export markets). Oct 2021 was only 15K retail. Jan 2022 is a runaway winner for China sales, while exports vary so much month to month its necessary to wait for the quarterly totals.

In a few weeks, we will get a separate estimate for China's monthly production numbers. This should at least put some bounds on export-intended production. But again, this is really an unuseful comparison because we never know on which date that Giga Shanghai cuts over production from export spec to local spec cars.

Yeah, even with (some) exports included, CPCA is still not counting intra-China domestic in-transit vehicles. Built and shipped, but not sold.

 

[traxila]

Hmm, qqq turned positive, anyone have a clue why? Nasdaq still pretty negative unless there's a massive delay on my end.

Russian foreign minister suggested to Russian President that diplomacy should perhaps still be pursued and Putin answered, ‘alright’. On Russian TV. Least that is what I heard.

 

[The Accountant]

Tesla sold 59,845 China-made vehicles in January -CPCA

U.S. electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc sold 59,845 China-made vehicles in January, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) said on Monday.

www.reuters.com

Tesla sold 59845 vehicles in China in January 2022, which is obviously lower than the 70847 in December, so I expect on one side a surprised market (oh my, demand problems!) and on the other side MM's trying to make a buck out of this.

In December, Tesla produced 66,759 vehicles and had local deliveries and export shipments of 70,847
I estimate January: produced 67,000 vehicles and had local deliveries and export shipments of 59,845.
At the end of January there were cars at the Luchao dock waiting for ships and also cars on truck carriers throughout China.
The January numbers are in line with what I expected. Good numbers.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Regarding the Tesla Superbowl ads...

What he said.

Interesting reactions from a guy who admits he’s contemptuous of advertising, and so proudly clueless about the goals of early product mention advertising and the attention span of Super Bowl watchers. Nevertheless, one is left with the bottom line — so many companies fearful of their cash cows getting hammered by CyberTruck!

 

[MikeAtkinson]

In December, Tesla produced 66,759 vehicles and had local deliveries and export shipments of 70,847
I estimate January: produced 67,000 vehicles and had local deliveries and export shipments of 59,845.
At the end of January there were cars at the Luchao dock waiting for ships and also cars on truck carriers throughout China.
The January numbers are in line with what I expected. Good numbers.

Agreed, in line with what I expected. Production should be between 65k and 70k, but could be as high as 75k.

One thing I am unsure of is when a car is counted as exported, is it loaded onto ship, ship leaving port, ship leaving territorial waters, or something else.

 

[petit_bateau]

In December, Tesla produced 66,759 vehicles and had local deliveries and export shipments of 70,847
I estimate January: produced 67,000 vehicles and had local deliveries and export shipments of 59,845.
At the end of January there were cars at the Luchao dock waiting for ships and also cars on truck carriers throughout China.
The January numbers are in line with what I expected. Good numbers.

If Austin and Berlin have ramps like these, I'm sure we will all be happy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1493141339525070848

 

[The Accountant]

Agreed, in line with what I expected. Production should be between 65k and 70k, but could be as high as 75k.

One thing I am unsure of is when a car is counted as exported, is it loaded onto ship, ship leaving port, ship leaving territorial waters, or something else.

I am not sure if anyone knows the answer to that question but my guess is that exports are counted when the ship has departed the dock and final paperwork is in-hand with Tesla.

Here are my estimates for Q1 2022; it has been updated for the 59,845 local/exports in January (I originally had 60,000).
Hopefully we see 204k in both production and local/export deliveries/shipments. Some would say I am being conservative.
The Q1 204k is a nice jump from Q4 of 178k.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If Austin and Berlin have ramps like these, I'm sure we will all be happy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1493141339525070848

Excellent. Let's get that graph into the permanent record at TMC, and make it searchable:

Roland Pircher on Twitter: "@DKurac https://t.co/hLVhmRHg9q" / Twitter

"Giga Shanghai Retail & Export" - Jan 2022

Cheers!

 

[Opus BC fan]

Excellent. Let's get that graph into the permanent record at TMC, and make it searchable:

Roland Pircher on Twitter: "@DKurac https://t.co/hLVhmRHg9q" / Twitter

"Giga Shanghai Retail & Export" - Jan 2022

View attachment 768853

Cheers!

Well, that just spoils the excuse for suppressing the stock value more!
The only thing that matters is the narrative...

/s (for me but gospel for the players behind the curtain)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I am not sure if anyone knows the answer to that question but my guess is that exports are counted when the ship has departed the dock and final paperwork is in-hand with Tesla.

Here are my estimates for Q1 2022; it has been updated for the 59,845 local/exports in January (I originally had 60,000).
Hopefully we see 204k in both production and local/export deliveries/shipments. Some would say I am being conservative.
The Q1 204k is a nice jump from Q4 of 178k.

View attachment 768850

I think you’re forgetting about the impact of Chinese New Year in Feb and also that Feb is a short month. I’m expecting Feb to come in 10-15k lighter.

Number a bit lighter than I expected. I was hoping they had produced 70k and that this number would come in at 65k + 5-7k at port.

We’ll see what the production number is in a few days. But not the type of number we needed to counter the selling pressure the stock has seen. Oh well, might as well make camp and start a fire in the 800’s until Q1 P/D.

 

[Nocturnal]

Cheers.

 

[jbcarioca]

i never done business in France

Having done business in both I suggest that each country and other jurisdiction has positive and negative features. Those who know the details are always better off than those who do not. It is easy to throw obsessions about each locations. We really should stop with the political histrionics, that is OFF TOPIC and ought not be here.

Selecting the next location of a GigaFactory does have plenty of variables to consider:
Liaoning (probably Dalian) has large advantages in engineer and technical resources, The Intel Fab, Chery, BYD (electric busses), Nissan (Dongfeng) couple with almost all the major Japanese and Korean suppliers. Logistically that has excellent port facilities.
Slovakia helps coming up, but several other EU members that are less expensive and bureaucratic than Northern European certainly reasonable.
Then there are raw material source locations such as Indonesia,Brazil or a half dozen others. Some of those
will appear, if only to stabilize longer term materials supplies.
Then there is Mexico, which has tariff advantages for export to the former NAFTA as well as Mercosur. Many manufacturers find that compelling.

So we can speculate.I cannot help but believe that the next one will be oriented to optimize tariffs and other impediments.

The only things that seem obvious is that it will probably not be California, Texas, Germany, France or the UK, most likely not in Northern Europe.

 

[FS_FRA]

Having done business in both I suggest that each country and other jurisdiction has positive and negative features. Those who know the details are always better off than those who do not. It is easy to throw obsessions about each locations. We really should stop with the political histrionics, that is OFF TOPIC and ought not be here.

Selecting the next location of a GigaFactory does have plenty of variables to consider:
Liaoning (probably Dalian) has large advantages in engineer and technical resources, The Intel Fab, Chery, BYD (electric busses), Nissan (Dongfeng) couple with almost all the major Japanese and Korean suppliers. Logistically that has excellent port facilities.
Slovakia helps coming up, but several other EU members that are less expensive and bureaucratic than Northern European certainly reasonable.
Then there are raw material source locations such as Indonesia,Brazil or a half dozen others. Some of those
will appear, if only to stabilize longer term materials supplies.
Then there is Mexico, which has tariff advantages for export to the former NAFTA as well as Mercosur. Many manufacturers find that compelling.

So we can speculate.I cannot help but believe that the next one will be oriented to optimize tariffs and other impediments.

The only things that seem obvious is that it will probably not be California, Texas, Germany, France or the UK, most likely not in Northern Europe.

I have a customer in Dalian - it's a nice city, as northern Chinese cities go, although the winters can be pretty terrible.

I have to agree with you on the advantages of Dalian, especially also for logistics to Korea and Japan. While certainly not directly connected to the existing China-Europe cargo rail connection, it's an interesting feasibility, especially considering the rail network in China to connect to it, and the ever decreasing costs vs. lead time to use the rail link from China to Europe.

 

[tivoboy]

Worse than Germany?
Not possible.

Having built a factory in France, I’m going with France is worse. ;-)

 

[Drax7]

Having built a factory in France, I’m going with France is worse. ;-)

France known for a short vacations allowance, not a happy situation.

 

[SOULPEDL]

You've never done business in France

For reference purposes, I'm French

 

[petit_bateau]

Having done business in both I suggest that each country and other jurisdiction has positive and negative features. Those who know the details are always better off than those who do not. It is easy to throw obsessions about each locations. We really should stop with the political histrionics, that is OFF TOPIC and ought not be here.

Selecting the next location of a GigaFactory does have plenty of variables to consider:
Liaoning (probably Dalian) has large advantages in engineer and technical resources, The Intel Fab, Chery, BYD (electric busses), Nissan (Dongfeng) couple with almost all the major Japanese and Korean suppliers. Logistically that has excellent port facilities.
Slovakia helps coming up, but several other EU members that are less expensive and bureaucratic than Northern European certainly reasonable.
Then there are raw material source locations such as Indonesia,Brazil or a half dozen others. Some of those
will appear, if only to stabilize longer term materials supplies.
Then there is Mexico, which has tariff advantages for export to the former NAFTA as well as Mercosur. Many manufacturers find that compelling.

So we can speculate.I cannot help but believe that the next one will be oriented to optimize tariffs and other impediments.

The only things that seem obvious is that it will probably not be California, Texas, Germany, France or the UK, most likely not in Northern Europe.

I'm used to visiting clients in Shenyang and Dalian (as well a few other places in China) on my travels.

The Shenyang rumours seem to be particularly focussed towards Shenyang (the city), rather than Liaoning (the province) or Dalian (the other big city). It would make sense to pick Shenyang if one were to go to Lianong, as Shenyang already has a suitable workforce and another big auto employer (BMW Brilliance). The whole area of Shenyang-Dalian-Liaoning is deservedly called China's rustbelt and as a result there is something of a push to encourage big business to locate big employment up there. The Party is more culturally dominant up North in places like Liaoning than down South in places like Shanghai.

This rumour is very Shenyang specific

As is this rumour

Tesla May Build Second Plant in China, More Specifically in Shenyang

The rumor began when the Dadong district in that Chinese city published that it was laying the foundation for “vehicle projects such as Tesla.”

www.autoevolution.com

However Tesla China is already in partial denial mode

Tesla denies the Giga Shenyang rumors, didn't deny second Chinese Gigafactory plans

On February 13, we reported that the local government of northeast Chinese city Shenyang, Liaoning province, announced it is preparing to transform its main industrial area in Dadong district to accommodate EV companies such as Tesla. Today Tesla has officially refuted this news, saying there is...

carnewschina.com

Food is yummy in Shenyang. I've had one of my best meals in China in a restaurant just like the one in the homage a Shenyang video, cheap, quick, and fantastic.

 

[15Peter20]

Quiet on here today. Have you all had to take up working for a living again?