Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[carterm2]

Here's a good diagram
View attachment 802687

https://c2e2.unepdtu.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/09/analysis-of-hydrogen-fuel-cell-and-battery.pdf

Elon is not the only investor in his new private twitter. He can claim a fiduciary responsibility to his new investors to try for a lower price if he thinks he can acquire it for significantly less money.

'funding not secured' ...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Rivian misses huge on revenue, loses 1.6 billion for the quarter, reaffirms 25k for 2022 but only has made 2,550 vehicles thus far so that 25k target seems questionable.........stock up 10% (well now 6%)

Hell I'll take it since it makes Tesla's valuation and performance look so much better.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Good news, Riviam lost $1.6B last quarter instead of losing $1.7B. To the moon!

For all those looking for logic in today's TSLA movements, the above Rivian result means TSLA is now worth nearly $1B more in the AH.

OK.

Edit: Pardon me, $4B more.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Elon trading Tesla shares creates a mess ...

Tesla and other companies that have cash and believe in their fundamentals should announce some buybacks ... that would get the market moving in the right direction ...
just think you are taking care of the upcoming stock based compensations ..

What was the share price at when they last sold to raise cash?

 

[PlaidCPA]

Over the last 12 months we have seen 500/600 levels so these levels are nothing to stress about. Wallstreet has been blind to Teslas growth and earnings forever so nothing unusual here. We have been in this boat numerous times over the last few years.

 

[Curt Renz]

Even the rate on the 10yr is dropping with this drop.

I don't know how to interpret that, except that people aren't pulling money out of stocks to go to bonds. . .

The rate dropping implies that the price of the notes was going up, i.e. buyers appeared more aggressive than sellers.

 

[thesmokingman]

Since its 420 time, might as well enjoy this video of a Giga Berlin MYP on the Ring.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

ARK has now wiped out all of its gains since nov 2017…

5 years!

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Rivian misses huge on revenue, loses 1.6 billion for the quarter, reaffirms 25k for 2022 but only has made 2,550 vehicles thus far so that 25k target seems questionable.........stock up 10% (well now 6%)

Hell I'll take it since it makes Tesla's valuation and performance look so much better.

Looks like a pretty ordinary short squeeze to me. RIVN should pop quite a bit tomorrow as the shorts take their profits and walk. Let's hope they aren't going to short TSLA next.

 

[marvinat0rz]

I'm not seeing any widespread panic here yet. When we have bottomed out previously, it's generally been in a forum-wide haze of terror.

 

[traxila]

We have declined 211 points from our 945 open 5 trading days ago. 22.3% drop.

Good news: this cannot continue!

Bad news: well, it could just more slowly...

I believe chances of a bounce tomorrow are high.

 

[oldTAVguy]

I'm not seeing any widespread panic here yet. When we have bottomed out previously, it's generally been in a forum-wide haze of terror.

I'm selling everything and hiding in the woods. /s

 

[betstarship]

Rivian:

Q3 2021: 386 vehicles delivered, 652 produced
Q4 2021: 909 vehicles delivered, 1,015 produced
Q1 2022: 1,227 vehicles delivered, 2,553 produced

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Over the last 12 months we have seen 500/600 levels so these levels are nothing to stress about. Wallstreet has been blind to Teslas growth and earnings forever so nothing unusual here. We have been in this boat numerous times over the last few years.

I gotta disagree here. Tesla didn't have earnings previously. Well they had some dribs and drabs, but certainly not amounts to justify a $1T+ valuation.

Now we have the earnings and 95% certain guidance to justify a $1.5T valuation, and........we drop.

This is far more bananas than anything we've seen to date.

 

[betstarship]

Rivian:

Q3 2021: 386 vehicles delivered, 652 produced
Q4 2021: 909 vehicles delivered, 1,015 produced
Q1 2022: 1,227 vehicles delivered, 2,553 produced

As an analogy, here's Tesla - worth looking at how well the company executed in 2012-2013

Tesla Deliveries by Quarter & Year (2012 to 2023)

Tesla delivered 1.3 mllion electric cars in 2022, making it one of the best EV stocks for growth investors. Here’s a list of Tesla’s deliveries by year for reference purposes.

www.investortrip.com

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Looks like a pretty ordinary short squeeze to me. RIVN should pop quite a bit tomorrow as the shorts take their profits and walk. Let's hope they aren't going to short TSLA next.

Next? You mean they haven't these past 2 weeks?

 

[Gigapress]

The prevailing expectation is that Q2 will be terrible because of the Shanghai shutdown and inflation, but we have price increases incoming, the Tesla team are cost control magicians, and volume might not be as bad as it seems. I expect Q2 profits to surprise many. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or investment advice. This is my amateur opinion.

Spoiler: ASP Increases and ZEV Credits

In April I inaccurately predicted that the wave of price increases from Oct & Nov 2021 had begun to hit in Q1.

The earnings report ended up showing that ASP only increased $712 over Q4. Nevertheless Tesla beat on earnings anyway primarily because of the ZEV credit windfall that gave a bonus of $1k per vehicle plus probably some unexpectedly good insurance profitability embedded in the numbers.

Across all variants the price increases were about $3k for the 3 and $4k for the Y. The Long Range S&X both increased $5k while the Plaids stayed the same. The Tesla website was on average across major markets globally showing March to June delivery estimates at the time the price increases went into effect for Standard Range and Long Range variants and December for Performance/Plaid variants. Considering both the uncertainties in estimating 1) the actual delivery timing and 2) the mix improvement away from Model 3 in favor of higher margin Y/S/X sales, these price increases represent a plausible range of around $1k to $4k bonus for ASP over Q1. Subtracting out the $1k anomaly bonus from ZEV credits in Q1, the net expectation is $0 to $3k average revenue per delivery increase over Q1, with maybe $1.5k as a decent middle estimate.

Spoiler: Cost and Gross Profit

Tesla has demonstrated extremely good cost control in the last couple years as ASP has not been increasing even with material, wage, logistics, and supplier costs all increasing. The earnings reports show that Tesla have been unwaveringly innovating faster than the economy can collapse. On the Q1 call the leadership team repeatedly emphasized how difficult Q1 had been for their supply chain and logistics, even compared to Q4’s mayhem. Also, Tesla prioritized premium variants to some extent and sold 1k more S&X than they had sold in Q4, and these cost more to manufacture than the other variants. Yet despite all of this, average cost per car in Q1 miraculously had increased merely $94 over Q4!

I expect that if inflation were to drive up average cost per vehicle, then it would be will be by $1k at most, which would be a 2.7% bump from Q1. So, a middle estimate for cost per vehicle increase is $500. That leaves $1.5k - $0.5k = $1k extra profit per car this quarter. In Q1, auto gross profit was $5.539B on deliveries of 308,650 cars for $18k gross profit per vehicle. And now this model projects $19k for Q2!

Spoiler: Shanghai Production

Suppose we will have lost one month’s worth of Shanghai production in Q2 because of the COVID lockdowns. Elon just said yesterday that he was in talks with the Chinese government who have him a clear message that the lockdowns will not be an issue in the coming weeks, and meanwhile Tesla is operating at partial capacity. We lost two weeks in Q1, so the relative impact was 4-2=2 weeks extra in Q2. This would’ve been about 35k vehicles extra COVID-related production loss in Q2 over Q1.

Production data shows that Shanghai had been ramping on a tight linear trend before the lockdowns began. They are completing an upgrade soon. It would not be surprising to see the remaining two month’s worth of production hitting 70k and 75k units each, effectively adding about 15k bonus units relative to Q1.

So overall I would expect 15k - 35k = -20k change in Shanghai production in Q2 vs Q1.

Spoiler: Berlin/Austin/Fremont Production

Berlin and Austin will produce 20k vehicles in Q2 if they make 1.5k vehicles per week combined on average across the Q2 ramp, which seems like a reasonably conservative estimate. Supposedly Berlin was already at 0.35k per week at the beginning of April.

If so, Berlin and Austin will have picked up all the slack from Shanghai and cancelled out the impact.

Then, Fremont is still squeezing out a bit more cars each quarter and may conservatively increase 5k as supply constraints ease compared to Q1 as Tesla have officially guided a couple weeks ago and as they get better at building the refreshed S&X. This would take the total for Q2 deliveries to 315k up from 310k in Q1.

Spoiler: Q2 Earnings Forecast

315k deliveries
$19k gross profit per car
—> $6B GAAP auto gross profit

If OpEx jumps to $2B with the new factories opening plus Shanghai administrative inefficiencies, and if Tesla Energy continues to break even financially, then total quarterly earnings before tax would be about $4B. If Tesla’s trend of setting aside 10% for income tax continues, that leaves $3.6B GAAP net income or about $3.05 GAAP earnings per share which would be up 7% from Q1’s $2.86!

Trailing twelve month GAAP earnings per share would increase from $7.37 to $10.35, up 40% from Q1! At today’s $750 share price that would give a TTM P/E ratio of 72, even with massive earnings growth looming as the new factories hit volume production and as Energy and FSD present potential upside in the next 2 years.

I am stunned that the TSLA price is this low and I’m still selling some of my shares to buy 2023 and 2024 deep out of the money call options.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or investment advice. This is my amateur opinion.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I expect Q2 profits to surprise many. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or investment advice. This is my amateur opinion.

I inaccurately predicted in April that the wave of price increases from Oct & Nov 2021 had begun to hit in Q1.

The earnings report ended up showing that ASP only increased $712 over Q4. Nevertheless Tesla beat on earnings anyway primarily because of the ZEV credit windfall that gave a bonus of $1k per vehicle plus probably some unexpectedly good insurance profitability embedded in the numbers.

Now the prevailing expectation is that Q2 will be terrible because of the Shanghai shutdown, but those price increases almost certainly will materially increase ASP in Q2.

Across all variants the price increases were about $3k for the 3 and $4k for the Y. The Long Range S&X both increased $5k while the Plaids stayed the same. The Tesla website was on average across major markets globally showing March to June delivery estimates at the time the price increases went into effect for Standard Range and Long Range variants and December for Performance/Plaid variants. Considering both the uncertainties in estimating 1) the actual delivery timing and 2) the mix improvement away from Model 3 in favor of higher margin Y/S/X sales, these price increases represent a plausible range of around $1k to $4k bonus for ASP over Q1. Subtracting out the $1k anomaly bonus from ZEV credits in Q1, the net expectation is $0 to $3k ASP increase over Q1, with maybe $1.5k as a decent middle estimate.

Tesla has demonstrated extremely good cost control in the last couple years as ASP has not been increasing even with materials, logistics, and supplier costs all increasing. The earnings reports show that Tesla have been unwaveringly innovating faster than the economy can collapse. On the Q1 call the leadership team repeatedly emphasized how difficult Q1 had been for their supply chain and logistics, even compared to Q4’s mayhem. Also, Tesla prioritized premium variants to some extent and sold 1k more S&X than they had sold in Q4, and these cost more to manufacture than the other variants. Yet despite all of this, average cost per car in Q1 had miraculously had increased merely $94 over Q4!

I expect that if average cost per vehicle increases due to inflation then will be by $1k at most, which would be a 2.7% bump from Q1. So, even if inflation bucks Tesla’s long-term cost trend, we could still expect about $500 extra profit per car this quarter. If we once again split the difference for a middle estimate, that’s $1k per car extra gross profit. In Q1, auto gross profit was $5.539B on deliveries of 308,650 cars for $18k gross profit per vehicle. And now this model projects $19k for Q2!

Suppose we will have lost one month’s worth of Shanghai production in Q2 because of the COVID lockdowns. We lost two weeks in Q1, so the relative impact was 4-2=2 weeks extra in Q2. This would’ve been about 35k vehicles extra COVID-related production loss in Q2 over Q1.

Production data shows that Shanghai had been ramping on a tight linear trend before the lockdowns began. They are completing an upgrade soon. It would not be surprising to see the remaining two month’s worth of production hitting 70k and 75k units each, effectively adding about 15k bonus units relative to Q1.

So overall I would expect 15k - 35k = -20k change in Shanghai production in Q2 vs Q1.

Berlin and Austin will produce 20k vehicles in Q2 if they make 1.5k vehicles per week combined on average across the Q2 ramp, which seems like a reasonably conservative estimate. Supposedly Berlin was already at 0.35k per week at the beginning of April.

If so, Berlin and Austin will have picked up all the slack from Shanghai and cancelled out the impact.

Then, Fremont is still squeezing out a bit more cars each quarter and may conservatively increase 5k as supply constraints ease compared to Q1 as Tesla have officially guided a couple weeks ago and as they get better at building the refreshed S&X. This would take the total for Q2 deliveries to 315k up from 310k in Q1.

315k deliveries
$19k gross profit per car
—> $6B GAAP auto gross profit

If OpEx jumps to $2B with the new factories opening plus Shanghai administrative inefficiencies, and if Tesla Energy continues to break even financially, then total quarterly earnings before tax would be about $4B. If Tesla’s trend of setting aside 10% for income tax continues, that leaves $3.6B GAAP net income or about $3.05 GAAP earnings per share which would be up 7% from Q1’s $2.86!

Trailing twelve month GAAP earnings per share would increase from $7.37 to $10.35, up 40% from Q1! At today’s $750 share price that would give a TTM P/E ratio of 72, even with massive earnings growth looming as the new factories hit volume production and as Energy and FSD present potential upside in the next 2 years.

I am stunned that the TSLA price is this low and I’m still selling some of my shares to buy 2023 and 2024 deep out of the money call options.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or investment advice. This is my amateur opinion.

I like your opinion but the wild card is even though Shanghai is functioning now, we do not know to what extent the supposedly supply chain issues are gonna affect production.

 

[bballshinobi]

ARK has now wiped out all of its gains since nov 2017…

Does that mean Ark has squandered away all its TSLA gains? lol

 

[Sofie]

I can see the lower end of that still, but I don't think 1900 was really in the cards to begin with. Prior to the risk tolerance being killed, I'd say 1600 was the more realistic idea. I'd say that is still very much in play. We got into the 500s last May and peaked in November at 1241. A 7-800 point move is possible here. Especially when we were 950 this time last week.

I wonder what @The Accountant thinks.