Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

Let the underperformance commence!

Wouldn't be surprised if TSLA only matches the Nasdaq/QQQ

Any sort of buying pressure is pushing the share price up quick. This looks like a setup for 800 today.

 

[Congo Line]

SpaceX shares offered by employees:

SpaceX Said in Talks to Raise Fresh Funds at $125 Billion Value

(Bloomberg) -- Elon Musk’s SpaceX is raising a funding round that would value the launch and satellite company at $125 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.Most Read from BloombergWalmart’s Troubles Should Have Everyone on High AlertBroadcom in Talks to Acquire Cloud Company...

news.yahoo.com

Apparently SpaceX employees are offering shares in a private placement. Brief articles in Bloomberg and Fortune on this; not much details as to who is coordinating the offering and availability. Different sources have said this sale values the company around $100-125 billion.

I did a little sleuthing and it sounds like these types of offers are generally only open to accredited investors (many Teslanaires here would qualify), and depends on who is coordinating the sale (I haven't been able to find this in my brief search). A seeking alpha article said that EquityZen is a brokerage which specializes in working with investors who wish to purchase these types of private placement sales.

 

[30seconds]

I wonder how long the Twitter debacle overhang will last on Tesla stock. At least the Shanghi issue will be conflated with all this nonsense. I’m finding it hard to believe in the short term unless Q2 production numbers are reasonable or Berlin and Texas really ramp up.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Let the underperformance commence!

Wouldn't be surprised if TSLA only matches the Nasdaq/QQQ

Lol, 1.87x ATM 1.30x slow walking...

Edit: Good prediction. TSLA multiple was walked down from near its beta at the Open to <1.0x by 10:40 a.m. That when the push down halted: Mission accomplished.

Cheers!

P.S. Not stopping for bears...

 

[UltradoomY]

SpaceX shares offered by employees:

SpaceX Employees Offer to Sell Shares at $125 Billion Valuation

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is raising a funding round that would value the launch and satellite company at $125 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

www.bloomberg.com

Apparently SpaceX employees are offering shares in a private placement. Brief articles in Bloomberg and Fortune on this; not much details as to who is coordinating the offering and availability. Values the company around $100-125 billion.

I did a little sleuthing and it sounds like these types of offers are generally only open to accredited investors (many Teslanaires here would qualify), and depends on who is coordinating the sale (I haven't been able to find this in my brief search). A seeking alpha article said that EquityZen is a brokerage which specializes in working with investors who wish to purchase these types of private placement sales.

Space X employees can do this twice a year. (investors as well) This allows them to book some gains for long term employees/shareholders and also allow some outside investment.
There is a limitation on how many people outside of the company can own shares (because private) so for the last few years they are only offered to large LLC's that get pools of investors together and the LLC takes a large percentage of future profits as well as a cut upfront.

 

[henchman24]

I wonder how long the Twitter debacle overhang will last on Tesla stock. At least the Shanghi issue will be conflated with all this nonsense. I’m finding it hard to believe in the short term unless Q2 production numbers are reasonable or Berlin and Texas really ramp up.

Until the eventual court case closes, there will be some sort of overhang. But the majority will lift once Elon formally walks away, with a slight return when Twitter files a lawsuit. From there it will be the bitcoin issue... chatter and not liked by institutional investors, but the company's financials wash them away.

 

[GOVA]

If his hope is to get a discount, if he backs out he loses 1 billion which is already 2.5% off. If he gets sued and loses he could be up for another 5-10% of the offer price. At that point he may as well just pay what he offered rather than pay it in fines and have nothing to show for it.

You are not from around here. Are you?

 

[Drezil]

Space X employees can do this twice a year. (investors as well) This allows them to book some gains for long term employees/shareholders and also allow some outside investment.
There is a limitation on how many people outside of the company can own shares (because private) so for the last few years they are only offered to large LLC's that get pools of investors together and the LLC takes a large percentage of future profits as well as a cut upfront.

Why is there no TMC LLC yet, then?

 

[Nocturnal]

SpaceX shares offered by employees:

SpaceX Said in Talks to Raise Fresh Funds at $125 Billion Value

(Bloomberg) -- Elon Musk’s SpaceX is raising a funding round that would value the launch and satellite company at $125 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.Most Read from BloombergWalmart’s Troubles Should Have Everyone on High AlertBroadcom in Talks to Acquire Cloud Company...

news.yahoo.com

Apparently SpaceX employees are offering shares in a private placement. Brief articles in Bloomberg and Fortune on this; not much details as to who is coordinating the offering and availability. Different sources have said this sale values the company around $100-125 billion.

I did a little sleuthing and it sounds like these types of offers are generally only open to accredited investors (many Teslanaires here would qualify), and depends on who is coordinating the sale (I haven't been able to find this in my brief search). A seeking alpha article said that EquityZen is a brokerage which specializes in working with investors who wish to purchase these types of private placement sales.

Forge is offering access into SpaceX via a private fund currently. FYI.

100-125 billion sounds like a discount to employees as the company is being valued at 156billion or so in the private markets. The tricky part is that if you haven't been in a previous round you might be asked to put up 1 million, but given the market downturn I would expect that to come down if they can't fill the fund.

Some reading for those who are curious.

SpaceX investor's thread

I thought it might be a good idea to have a thread where we could put news, rumors etc. regarding future investment oportunities in SpaceX. I'm absolutely thrilled with the progress SpaceX is making and how they have been able to win contracts and deliver the way they have. With Elon's unique...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

My gut tells me it will be more like a dozen or so per week for the remainder of this year. They simply need to ramp 4680 production first.

Std Rge Semi (~300 mi) could be built with 2170 pack, and Tesla has a surplus of 2170 cells ATM. The trial assembly line for Semi is next door to Giga Nevada. I'd be shocked if Tesla doesn't do the Semi production ramp this way.

BTW, it's only 260 mi from Giga Nevada to the Tesla Fremont factory, and the laden leg has a net altitude decrease. This means that Tesla themselves can be the first customer for Standard Range Semi, as has been the plan since 2019.

Then, Long-range Semi from Giga Texas as 4680 cell production ramp allows. Model Y is the priority, since it'll be more profitable in per KWh terms.

Cheers!

 

[UncaNed]

Heads up, the guy who created SARK ETF now created a 2x leverage Arkk ETF called Tark. Seems like he thinks the bottom is in at least for Arkk.

And this guy has good credibility IYHO?

 

[Nocturnal]

And this guy has good credibility IYHO?

It's a leveraged bet on Cathie. She might be due for some redemption. (the good kind)

 

[StealthP3D]

The special meeting will confirm the go ahead (surprised Twitter went this route). Elon will buyout and walk. Then Twitter sues with an unknown outcome that could force and acquisition (they have happened before). This sets the stage for a year long process. It won’t be clean, but the markets wil move on after the first formalities are done with some discounting.

That's a likely outcome but it doesn't leave Twitter in a very happy place. Which is just another way of saying Twitter has a lot of incentive to try to salvage a deal at a price that shareholders would approve. I sense Musk would still like to own Twitter but at a price closer to $28 billion than $44 billion so the chances of a deal have gone down dramatically. The longer this goes on the cheaper Twitter gets but I sense if the price is not a lot cheaper, Elon is likely to not just walk away but to also build his own social media company. The negative effect of Elon buying Twitter is mostly related to the financial stretch it requires. Most of that goes away if the price is lower.

Elon is likely to be sued for walking away, perhaps by multiple parties, but those are not the kind of lawsuits that go anywhere. Twitter is the party at fault and it's due to their dot-com culture of wanting ever higher active user numbers/valuations which gave them little incentive to tackle the problem of multiple accounts and fake bot accounts because more users allow them to charge their advertisers more. The idea that Elon should have known or should have done more due diligence before making an offer, doesn't work because people are supposed to be able to rely on the accuracy and honesty of SEC filings. Elon cannot be found guilty with that elephant in the room.

 

[jbcarioca]

Someone discovered a Tesla factory in Prum Germany that is somehow involved in 4680 cells/packs/testing.

That is not actually any surprise at all. This is the expansion of Tesla Grohmann that has been under construction for some time. They are them same ones that camped in Fremont to help fix Model 3 production. They are the ones who made the Octovalve-based vaccine production mini-factory, and have been deeply involved in every major Tesla factory advance, including, notably, Gigapress and the Grüneheide paint shop.

All that is not secret but seems not well known, perhaps because Grohmann since their beginning solved factory automation problems for every major German OEM and many others, but kept very quiet so the clients took the glory.

The oddity above all is how even we mostly ignore them. Google street view shows it too.

 

[30seconds]

That's a likely outcome but it doesn't leave Twitter in a very happy place. Which is just another way of saying Twitter has a lot of incentive to try to salvage a deal at a price that shareholders would approve. I sense Musk would still like to own Twitter but at a price closer to $28 billion than $44 billion so the chances of a deal have gone down dramatically. The longer this goes on the cheaper Twitter gets but I sense if the price is not a lot cheaper, Elon is likely to not just walk away but to also build his own social media company. The negative effect of Elon buying Twitter is mostly related to the financial stretch it requires. Most of that goes away if the price is lower.

Elon is likely to be sued for walking away, perhaps by multiple parties, but those are not the kind of lawsuits that go anywhere. Twitter is the party at fault and it's due to their dot-com culture of wanting ever higher active user numbers/valuations which gave them little incentive to tackle the problem of multiple accounts and fake bot accounts because more users allow them to charge their advertisers more. The idea that Elon should have known or should have done more due diligence before making an offer, doesn't work because people are supposed to be able to rely on the accuracy and honesty of SEC filings. Elon cannot be found guilty with that elephant in the room.

At this point there will be lots of lawsuits, for a long amount of time, no matter what the outcome. Walking away from a deal in Delaware courts is not trivial.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Anyone surprised lol

Of course, Rivian is up 5% still, Nio up 9%

 

[Singuy]

Anyone surprised lol

Of course, Rivian is up 5% still, Nio up 9%

Surprised we are not yet red

 

[growler23]

Surprised we are not yet red

Fear not... I just scrounged enough to buy 2 more shares around $735. Given my proven track record, red will soon follow

 

[traxila]

Forge is offering access into SpaceX via a private fund currently. FYI.

100-125 billion sounds like a discount to employees as the company is being valued at 156billion or so in the private markets. The tricky part is that if you haven't been in a previous round you might be asked to put up 1 million, but given the market downturn I would expect that to come down if they can't fill the fund.

Not a discount. Previous funding round was at 100B. The 156B in private markets is people wanting to buy out existing shareholders and sellers are in the drivers seat.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Here it comes, fomo about to boil over!

Launching like a Plaid at the drag strip.